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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/2/21
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Pitchers
Lance Lynn FD - P 10000 DK - SP 9700
Opponent - DET (Casey Mize) Park - DET
FD - 35.33 DK - 19.64
Lance Lynn opens as a -156 road favorite against the Tigers on Friday. Detroit is a bottom-third offense on the season and strike out around 27% of the time as a team. That is the highest rate in the league meaning Lynn has some pretty big K upside here. Meanwhile, the righty is striking out 10.3 batters per nine, the second-best rate of his career and has a career-best 3.82 xFIP so far. This slate is lighter on the pitching side except for Scherzer who has a tough matchup against the Dodgers.
Sonny Gray FD - P 7000 DK - SP 7500
Opponent - CHC (Alec Mills) Park - CIN
FD - 30.58 DK - 16.29
The over/ under oaths game is 9.5 which you don’t love, in part because this one is taking place in a great hitter’s park. But other things line up for Gray here. For starters, he’s been excellent on the season, posting a career-best strikeout rate, putting down 11.7 batters per nine good for a 30% K rate. His 3.30 xFIP is excellent on the season and the Cubs are a sneaky good matchup. They rank in the bottom half of the league on offense and strike out the 4th-most in the league. This is a good spot for Gray.
Catcher/First Base
Yuli Gurriel FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B 5100
Opponent - CLE (Sam Hentges) Park - CLE
FD - 14.89 DK - 11.42
Gurriel should be in the cleanup spot against the lefty Hentges on Friday. The latter has been brutal this season with a low-7’s ERA and 4.85 xFIP. Meanwhile, Gurriel is hovering around a .900 OPS thanks to an extremely patient approach with an 11% walk rate and only 9% K rate. Plus he’s added 10 home runs. He’s been better against lefties for his career and is very tough to get out in this split. Gurriel should have the ball in play a bunch in this matchup.
C.J. Cron FD - 1B 3500 DK - 1B 4900
Opponent - STL (Johan Oviedo) Park - COL
FD - 14.1 DK - 10.63
You’re going to see some Rockies on the list today for sure. If Cron is in the lineup then he’s almost a must-play on FanDuel at $3500. Though he’s dealt with some injuries this season, he still has a mid-.800s OPS and strikes out less than 25% of the time. The righty Oviedo has some big-time control problems and Coors could be a disaster for him on Friday.
Second Base
Ryan McMahon FD - 2B 4000 DK - 2B/3B 5000
Opponent - STL (Johan Oviedo) Park - COL
FD - 11.98 DK - 9.07
Like all Rockies, McMahon’s numbers get dramatically better when playing at home. On the road, the dude is below replacement level. But at home? Things look a hell of a lot better. For his career, he has an .853 OPS and .357 wOBA. And at home against righties, it gets even better. There are a lot of good 2B options on this slate with Jose Altuve and Whit Merrifield in good spots as well. But I’ll go along with the Rockies stack for this slate assuming we can jam in all of that salary.
David Fletcher FD - 2B 3000 DK - 2B 3200
Opponent - BAL (Keegan Akin) Park - LAA
FD - 10.98 DK - 8.59
Fletcher is only in play on this slate if he’s back in the leadoff slot like he was on Thursday. If that’s the case then I really like the $3200 price tag on DraftKings that could allow you to pay up for some more pitching and those Coors bats. Statistically, it’s tough to make the case for Fletcher except that the plate appearance expectation dramatically increases if he’s setting the table for the Angels. Keep an eye on this situation.
Shortstop
Trevor Story FD - SS 4100 DK - SS 5800
Opponent - STL (Johan Oviedo) Park - COL
FD - 15.72 DK - 11.95
Story isn’t seeing the same offensive returns this season as he has in the past, though that’s been the case for a number of different guys. If spin rates are going to drop though and runs are going to climb, let’s buy on this guy now heading back into Coors. At home against righties for his career, Story has been amazing with a .936 OPS and .389 wOBA over more than 1,000 plate appearances. This season the numbers are down because the hard contact rate is down, but there is still time to turn things around.
Francisco Lindor FD - SS 2900 DK - SS 4900
Opponent - NYY (Jordan Montgomery) Park - NYY
FD - 11.58 DK - 8.79
Lindor has struggled this season for sure, but he’s still hitting second in the order for the Mets and has had some BABIP trouble this season as well. If you aren’t going Story on FanDuel, then I think you can take a shot at the discount you are getting for Lindor over there. He is coming at sub-$3K and that is just too low. Again, Story is the clear play here but Lindor could be a value.
Third Base
Anthony Rendon FD - 3B 3500 DK - 3B 4700
Opponent - BAL (Keegan Akin) Park - LAA
FD - 14.68 DK - 10.99
The drop in power this season, combined with the injury to the triceps is definitely a concern. His hard contact rate is way down and he’s had some stints on the injured list. But he has been a very tough out against lefties over his career with a .378 wOBA and 137 wRC+ in that split. Akin is a well-below-average pitcher who doesn’t strike out more than a batter per inning and has a 4.74 xFIP. Again, I understand the concern around Rendon and his stats this season, but he’s still coming very cheap.
Abraham Toro FD - 3B 2500 DK - 3B 3000
Opponent - CLE (Sam Hentges) Park - CLE
FD - 10.26 DK - 7.75
Toro got to hit second in the order on Thursday and if he is there again on Friday then we are getting a bargain on both sites. Fitting Coors bats can be tough on these slates meaning when we get a bargain moving up in the order it is best to jump on board when possible. Toro is in the worst side of his platoon with this matchup against the lefty, but it is mitigated some if he’s wedged in between Altuve and Brantley.
Outfield
Charlie Blackmon FD - OF 3800 DK - OF 5500
Opponent - STL (Johan Oviedo) Park - COL
FD - 13.67 DK - 10.46
Yonathan Daza FD - OF 3000 DK - OF 3300
Opponent - STL (Johan Oviedo) Park - COL
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.86
Blackmon is actually striking out at the lower rate of his career this season and walking more than ever. The trouble is the power has been almost non-existent so far. Coors is a great place to cure that problem though he’s going to have to get more lift on the ball. Though the hard contact rate is around his career number, he’s grounding out far too much. That could be a problem against Oviedo, but we can still take a chance on Blackmon in Coors.
Daza should be in the second slot again for the Rockies on Friday and would be an auto-play on DraftKings for only $3300. That price is way too low for the Rockies' run expectation in this game even though Daza isn’t a power bat at all. Even with only two long balls this season though, he still has a .780 OPS on the year. He will be a very popular play on DK sitting at this slot in the lineup at that price.
Dylan Carlson FD - OF 3400 DK - OF 3900
Opponent - COL (Chi Chi González) Park - COL
FD - 13.81 DK - 10.53
Carlson was coming too cheap on both sites last night and that’s the case again on DraftKings especially. He hit leadoff against the righty on Friday. Like we’ve already said, Chi-Chi Gonzalez is just one of the worst regular arms in the league and there’s a reason to stack the Cardinals. Carlson is a solid enough hitter with a .762 OPS and there’s enough power to get by.
