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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 5/21/21
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Pitchers
Afternoon slate
Lance McCullers Jr. FD - P 9400 DK - SP 9500
Opponent - TEX (Jordan Lyles) Park - TEX
FD - 37.33 DK - 20.16
McCullers is one of the top options for the afternoon slate of games, coming in as a -174 road favorite against the Rangers. The run line is on the lower side, starting at 8.5 and McCullers looks fully healthy this season. He’s striking out more than 10 batters per nine on the season with an ERA under 3.00. The xFIP is a little higher and he’s gotten a bit lucky with the BABIP which is masking the walk rate just a tad. But he gets a Rangers offense that’s currently in the bottom-third of the league and strikes out more than 26% of the time.
Shane Bieber (FD $11500 DK $11200) is the expenseive option here, but it’s hard to argue with him even at these price points.
Evening slate
Walker Buehler FD - P 10500 DK - SP 11000
Opponent - SF (Undecided) Park - SF
FD - 35.18 DK - 19.38
Buehler isn’t striking batters out at the same rate he did over the last two seasons, with the K% under 28% for the first time in a while. But he’s mitigated that some by drastically reducing his walks per nine innings. The control has been elite and he’s sporting a 3.26 xFIP on the season. The Giants offense has actually been good this season with some turn-back-the-clock seasons from a few of their dudes. But Walker is still a value on this evening slate of games. He’s not cheap, but he’s the best arm going on this slate.
Catcher/First Base
Afternoon slate
Josh Bell FD - 1B 3500 DK - 1B 4000
Opponent - BAL (Bruce Zimmermann) Park - WSH
FD - 11.56 DK - 8.63
Bell has come out of the gate struggling and it’s been a carryover from his last season as well. There’s a good chance we aren’t going to see him return to the 2019 form when he cranked out 37 home runs. That season is looking like a blip for sure. But he’s still hitting in the middle of this Nationals’ lineup and they get one of the better matchups of the day against the lefty Bruce Zimmermann.
Evening slate
Danny Santana FD - DK - 1B 2400
Opponent - PHI (Spencer Howard) Park - PHI
FD - 0 DK - 9.35
He’s not available on FanDuel, but he is on DraftKings which is great news if the Red Sox use him the same way on Saturday as they did on Friday. That’s because they hit him leadoff, a spot they’ve swapped all kinds of guys around in this season. He rewarded the decision by smacking a home run, his first of the season. That should be a good sign about his chances of sticking in this spot in the order.
Second Base
Afternoon slate
Whit Merrifield FD - 2B 3100 DK - 2B 5400
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - KC
FD - 11.93 DK - 9.29
Matt Boyd doesn’t look like he’s getting back to the big K guy we saw in 2019. He’s dropped off a cliff since then and this season has a 4.71 xFIP while striking out fewer than seven batters per nine. Merrifield meanwhile is one of the tougher outs in the game, putting the ball in play around 80% of the time. His BABIP is about 80 points lower than his career averages which is driving the OPS down this season. But that’s due for some regression and he already has 12 stolen bases on the season.
Evening slate
Tommy Edman FD - 2B 3000 DK - 2B/SS 4500
Opponent - CHC (Adbert Alzolay) Park - STL
FD - 10.06 DK - 7.82
Alzolay is better than his 4+ ERA would suggest this season with the xFIP sitting in the low 3’s. But this evening slate is a tougher one with the bats and I don’t mind Edman coming out of the leadoff slot here. Edman puts the ball in play 84% of the time and already has eight stolen bases on the season. As a switch hitter, Edman is better in his career against lefties, but he’s still above average against righties so this isn’t a platoon disaster against Alzolay.
Shortstop
Afternoon slate
Trea Turner FD - SS 4100 DK - SS 6100
Opponent - BAL (Bruce Zimmermann) Park - WSH
FD - 14.69 DK - 11.3
I mentioned with Bell that the Nationals were in a good spot against Bruce Zimmermann, but unlike the first basemen, there’s a much more solid case to be made for rostering Turner here. He’s been awesome this season, rocking an OPS in the .900s, a .400 wOBA and he already has 10 home runs and eight stolen bases. He’s just one of the best fantasy players around and another reason you’ll almost have to pay up at shortstop on this slate.
Evening slate
Fernando Tatis Jr. FD - SS 4500 DK - SS 5900
Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - SD
FD - 12.31 DK - 9.31
The Padres draw a very good matchup on this evening slate against Justus Sheffield. The lefty is striking out just a tick over seven batters per nine this season and the 4.50 xFIP is decidedly below average. Tatis meanwhile has been his regular superstar self with a .959 OPS and .403 wOBA. He’s already cranked 10 home runs and also has eight stolen bases through his first 112 plate appearances. He’s expensive for sure, but there’s almost no one better on this evening slate.
Third Base
Afternoon slate
Eugenio Suárez FD - 3B 3100 DK - 3B/SS 5300
Opponent - MIL (Brett Anderson) Park - CIN
FD - 12.29 DK - 9.14
Suarez is having such a weird season. On the one hand, he already has nine home runs, which is great. Unfortunately, that’s almost all he’s done and the OPS is barely scraping .600. In the righty-lefty matchup against Brett Anderson in a great hitter’s park in Great American, I think we can take the risk on his FanDuel price. Considering some of the downside risk though he might be a bit too steep on DraftKings.
Evening slate
Manny Machado FD - 3B 3200 DK - 3B 5300
Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - SD
FD - 11.49 DK - 8.65
Machado is coming much too cheap on FanDuel in the low-$3K range. Yes, he’s been struggling to start the season with an OPS barely scraping over .700. Some of that is a BABIP 50 points lower than his career average. Plus, his Hr/FB rate is nine points lower than what it was last season as well. He’s running bad. And even with that he has six home runs and is actually showing speed as well with six stolen bases, already equalling his number from last season. On FanDuel, this is a pretty easy play.
Outfield
Afternoon slate
Yordan Alvarez FD - OF 3300 DK - OF 5700
Opponent - TEX (Jordan Lyles) Park - TEX
FD - 13.74 DK - 10.25
Alvarez is coming way, way too cheap on FanDuel where there’s almost a mistake with his price. He’s been one of the best hitters in baseball this season with a .940 OPS thanks to seven home runs and .398 wOBA. The BABIP is running hot at over .400 but again, a middle-of-the-order ball like Alvarez in this matchup is just too cheap for his FanDuel price.
Juan Soto FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 5800
Opponent - BAL (Bruce Zimmermann) Park - WSH
FD - 15.77 DK - 11.69
Stacking all of the Nationals on the afternoon slate will probably have you slotting Soto into lineups as well. He’s more expensive sure, but if you are playing McCullers at SP then you’ll have more money to spend with some of the hitters. Soto is struggling to start the season with the OPS barely over .800, about .300 points power than last season. But he’s still walking more than he’s striking out and has seen the Hr/FB% drop off his career numbers. There’s still upside on this guy at these prices.
Evening slate
Alex Verdugo FD - OF 3100 DK - OF 4200
Opponent - PHI (Spencer Howard) Park - PHI
FD - 11.26 DK - 8.67
Vertigo continues to make a lot of contact and is putting the ball in play 80% of the time this season with an OPS sitting right around .800. He’s hitting consistently in the two-spot for the Red Sox who want him in front of the two righties Martinez and Bogaerts. He’s coming at advantageous prices on both sites and really helps if you are spending up on Buehler and a couple of other bigger bats elsewhere.
Tommy Pham FD - OF 2100 DK - OF 3000
Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - SD
FD - 9.34 DK - 7.08
He’s hitting lower in the Padres’ lineup right now, but he’s also coming at near-punt prices on both sites. That’s because the numbers have been dreadful for sure, especially in the power department which has been a problem over the last two seasons. But he’s still taking walks at a 15% rate and he’s been much, much better against lefties over his career. Pham has a .867 OPS in that split with a .375 wOBA. I’m still buying him at these prices in good matchups if the Padres are going to keep him in the lineup.
