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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 5/15/20
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Pitchers
Trevor Bauer FD - P 11000 DK - SP 11000
Opponent - MIA (Undecided) Park - LAD
FD - 38.22 DK - 20.86
Miami ranks in the bottom third of the league this season in offensive wOBA as a team putting Bauer in position to really go pretty far in this game. He’s a huge favorite going in and will make for a tough fade on the evening slate even at these high prices. He’s striking out 12 batters per nine on the season and has an xFIP in the low threes. Again, you are going to need to really spend up to roster Bauer here, but considering the matchup it makes all the sense in the world.
Carlos Rodón FD - P 11400 DK - SP 10000
Opponent - KC (Mike Minor) Park - CHW
FD - 38.41 DK - 20.75
Rodon has put it all together this season, showing off the upside many have been dreaming about for years from the lefty. He’s striking out batters at a 37% rate is rocking a 0.58 ERA even though the xFIP is about two runs higher. He’s throwing his fastball more and has reduced the slider use as well. He’s a -173 home favorite against the Royals. Kansas City ranks 22nd in the league in team wOBA on the season making this a good matchup for Rodon. He’s expensive, but it’s worth it on this slate.
If you are looking to save some money on salary at pitcher, Ian Anderson (FD $8600 DK $9200) makes a reasonable option against the Brewers and their 26th ranked offense.
Catcher/First Base
Max Muncy FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 5500
Opponent - MIA (Undecided) Park - LAD
FD - 11.07 DK - 8.15
The Blue Jays haven’t announced their pitcher yet for Saturday’s game which typically these the opposing bats in a really good spot. That should be the case with the Dodgers. After a down 2020 campaign, Muncy is right back to raking this season with an OPS over .900 thanks to some power and an absurd 23% walk rate. That’s just the very definition of a cash game play on this slate.
Alec Bohm FD 2400 DK 3200
Opponent - TOR (Anthony Kay) Park - TOR
FD - 10.42 DK - 7.97
Bohm has been moved down in the order thanks to a slow start but does draw the lefty Kay on this slate. If we are looking to save some money to pay up for pitching or stack Coors, this is a place to start even if he’s around the 6th slot in the lineup. Kay isn’t as bad as the 10.00 ERA would suggest, but he’s also not very good relative to pitching in the majors at this point.
Second Base
Nick Senzel FD 3500 DK 4400
Opponent - COL (Jhoulys Chacin) Park - COL
FD - 13.69 DK - 10.47
If Senzel finds himself in the leadoff slot again, then this is an easy play on Saturday. The Reds come in with the highest implied run line of the day thanks to facing Chacin and playing in Coors. Denzel puts the ball in play around 80% of his plate appearances and is very tough to strikeout at only 12%. He doesn’t have big power, but the ability to reduce the K rate means he’s in a tremendous spot in this park against a weaker arm in Chacin.
Josh Harrison FD 2900 DK 3300
Opponent - ARI (Seth Frankoff) Park - ARI
FD - 9.85 DK - 7.59
If Harrison is still hitting in the two-hole for the Nationals then I like him as a play on both sites at these prices. He’s especially a good deal on DraftKings in the low-$3K range. Frankoff is getting his first start in the majors this season and doesn’t project for huge K stuff. Meanwhile, Harrison has an OPS in the high .700s and has been putting the ball in play a lot this season. This is a good deal for a top-of-the-order guy in a solid matchup.
Shortstop
Corey Seager FD - SS 3400 DK - SS 5600
Opponent - MIA (Undecided) Park - LAD
FD - 11.61 DK - 8.76
We often find ourselves paying up at shortstop because these days it’s an elite offensive position. Seager is one of the best around and is facing a now unknown pitcher. Like we said for Muncy, this will almost certainly jack the implied run line once announced. Seager isn’t sitting in the mid-900s with his OPS like last season, but still takes a lot of walks, is tough to strike out, and has been running a bit bad on his Hr/FB ratio despite a hard contact rate just a tick below his career numbers.
Trea Turner FD 3900 DK 5900
Opponent - ARI (Seth Frankoff) Park - ARI
FD - 12.88 DK - 9.91
Speaking of elite offensive shortstops, Turner is another one who provides so many ways to score in fantasy he makes for a tough fade whenever in a matchup against a subpar arm. The OPS is sitting right around .900 on the season and he has the rare power and speed combination you dream about. He already has nine home runs and seven stolen bases on the season, making him one of the best options around.
Third Base
Mike Moustakas FD 3900 DK 5200
Opponent - COL (Jhoulys Chacin) Park - COL
FD - 13.82 DK - 10.36
Eugenio Suárez FD 3800 DK 5800
Opponent - COL (Jhoulys Chacin) Park - COL
FD - 13.21 DK - 9.82
It does get a little pricey but man is it enticing to stack those Reds bats in Coors on Saturday evening. They are already trending towards a high-5s implied run line against Chacin and Moustakas and Suarez should be middle-of-the-order bats. Moustakas is tough to strike out on the season, sitting at a 16% K rate to go with a 10% walk rate, the BABP is always low, but he does project to be higher than a mid-700s OPS like where he’s sitting right now. If the Hr/FB ratio is going to jump back to his previous two seasons’ numbers, this is the place to do it.
Meanwhile, Suarez has admittedly been hot garbage this season with a sub-.600 OPS. Some of that is BABIP which is .120 points lower than his career average. Even making up some of that on regression gets his overall line looking a lot better. You are concerned about the 35% K rate but that could be pressing because of the luck issues.
Outfield
Andrew McCutchen FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - TOR (Anthony Kay) Park - TOR
FD - 12.38 DK - 9.3
Mccutchen should once again be in the leadoff spot for the Phillies on Saturday, this time facing off against the lefty Kay. Cutch has been solid this season with an .849 OPS, knocking five home runs and stealing three bags on the season. He’s been much, much better against lefties for his career making this a great platoon matchup for the veteran. He’s a totally reasonable price on both sites.
Juan Soto FD 4000 DK 5600
Opponent - ARI (Seth Frankoff) Park - ARI
FD - 15.75 DK - 11.29
We’ve thrown out some other Nationals bats and Soto is the best of the bunch. He’s walking (17%) more than he’s striking out (13%) and though the OPS is sitting at under .800 right now some of that has to do with a Hr/FB rate well under his career averages. I love a Nationals stack if you are pivoting away from Coors.
