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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 3/24/21
I'm going to take a little bit of a different approach to this article. We have 11 games ahead on this slate, and that makes the player pool extensive. We know you guys understand that Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard, and Trae Young are all elite options, so we're going to zone in on all value plays. We're not going to have a single guy above $7K on either site, and hopefully, it will allow you to fit in at least two of those aforementioned studs into your build. That's what really matters on such a big slate, so let's go ahead and get into it!
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Point Guard
Darius Garland FD - $5500 DK - $6600
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 30.67 DK - 32.18
Why the heck is Garland just $5,500 on FanDuel? We're talking about a second-year player who's improved throughout the season, averaging 34 fantasy points per game before his injury. That's not far off from the guy we've seen recently, with Garland posting a 30-point average over his last 12 games played. That makes it hard to believe he's so cheap on FanDuel, and we especially love him in a matchup like this. Chicago currently ranks seventh in pace and 24th in points allowed while allowing some monster performances to opposing point guards recently.
Tomas Satoransky FD - $4800 DK - $4600
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 24.91 DK - 25.3
It's almost like these sites don't know that Satoransky is the starting point guard in Chicago right now. They're still pricing him around a bunch of role players when he really should be closer to $6K on both sites. The Czech guard has scored at least 27 DraftKings points in four of his six games since taking over starting duties, averaging 28 fantasy points per game in that span. What makes that even less surprising is that he averaged 25 DK points per game in that role last season, making it hard to believe he remains so cheap. The matchup against Cleveland isn't too shabby either, with the Cavaliers ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency.
If you have the salary, look for Luka Doncic to destroy the T'Wolves.
Shooting Guard
Tyrese Haliburton FD - $5700 DK - $5700
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 28.14 DK - 28.43
I'm not so sure that I've written up Haliburton all season, and that's honestly a major mistake by yours truly. He's one of the frontrunners for Rookie of the Year, and a recent slump has lowered his price to a number that we can't overlook. Before getting injured at the end of February, Hali averaged 30 DK points per game across 30 minutes a night in his first 30 games of the season. That's a great total from a $5,700 player, and dropping 38 fantasy points in his most recent outing is a good indicator that he's fully back now. We also love the fact that he's starting now, stepping up in the absence of Marvin Bagley III. The matchup is stupendous, too, with the Hawks surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing SGs this season.
Devonte' Graham FD - $5000 DK - $5300
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 31.93 DK - 33.52
Graham was a breakout player for the Hornets last season, and now that LaMelo Ball is out for the foreseeable future, we should see him return to that player. With him off the floor this season, Graham is one of the team leaders with a 21 percent usage rate. More importantly, his shots and minutes climb up drastically without him, which is all that really matters from someone this cheap. In that role last year, Graham averaged 34.2 DraftKings points per game. If you get 34 fantasy points from a guy barely cracking $5K, you're in a fantastic spot. The matchup against Houston is phenomenal, too, with the Rockets ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing shooting guards.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is just $7K on FanDuel! He's a lock over there!
Small Forward
Larry Nance Jr. FD - $5600 DK - $6200
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 29.49 DK - 28.6
Nance has quietly had a really nice season for the Cavs, and he should continue to do big things with Andre Drummond and Kevin Love both out of the picture. Before getting injured, the lengthy small forward averaged over 34 DK points per game. That's pretty much on par with what he's been doing recently, posting a 30-point average over his last five fixtures. He's been doing that damage with defensive statistics, and it's scary to think how good he could be if he starts scoring and rebounding at a higher rate. Nance is certainly capable of that, and a matchup against Chicago is just the way to get him going. They play at that blistering pace that we mentioned before while sitting 24th in point allowed.
Malik Monk FD - $3800 DK - $4300
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 24.47 DK - 26.08
Monk has been terrible the last few weeks, but a recent surge before that shows how good he can be. When Gordon Hayward was in and out of the lineup between February 14 and March 17, Monk averaged 25 DK points per game in 24 minutes a night. That's a massive total from a $4K player, and playing 27 minutes in the first game without LaMelo is obviously a really encouraging sign. If we get 25-30 minutes from a guy this talented, we have to use him in this $4K price range. We can't overlook the matchup either, with the Rockets owning a 29th OPRK against opposing SGs this year. We like Graham and Monk together because this sort of game has shootout and small-ball written all over it.
We like Gordon Hayward in that game, too, as he'll run the offense a lot more without Ball around.
Power Forward
Nicolas Claxton FD - $5000 DK - $4000
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 29.93 DK - 27.71
This is certainly a risky play, but Claxton has actually closed each of the last three games over DeAndre Jordan. We all know he's the more talented guy, too, scoring at least 27 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. That sort of production is far from surprising when you see his per-minute numbers, averaging 21 DK points per game in 18 minutes a night for the year. That equates to 1.2 DK points per minute, and we'd love to see what he could do in a more consistent 25-30 minute role. The reason we think he could reach that here is this matchup, with Brooklyn needing someone to match up with Rudy Gobert's big body. It's also the second half of a back-to-back, so if you hear that DJ is sitting, Claxton would be one of the best per-dollar plays on the board.
Maxi Kleber FD - $3800 DK - $4900
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 21.42 DK - 21.68
Kleber can be hard to trust at times, but it's hard to overlook the role he's been playing recently. Before a 40-point blowout over the weekend, Kleber was averaging 23.4 DK points per game across 33 minutes a night in his previous eight games. He still collected 21 fantasy points in 25 minutes in that blowout to Sunday, indicating that his role is still the same, despite not playing in the fourth quarter. To put it simply, you can't fade a $4K player playing 30-35 minutes a night. If he scores a fantasy-point-per-minute, which he's capable of, Kleber would be flirting with 8-9X value. That's a ridiculous rate from such an affordable player, and we love that he faces a 26th-ranked Minnesota defense as well.
Aaron Gordon has looked really hungry recently and could try to showcase himself before the deadline on Thursday.
Center
Robert Williams III FD - $5900 DK - $6000
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 34.7 DK - 32
This guy is an absolute freak. If we ever get to a point where Rob-Will is playing 30 minutes a night, he'd probably be an $8,000 player. We say that because he's averaging 22.7 DK points per game in just 17.1 minutes a night. That's one of the best per-minute rates in the NBA, and it makes him really scary with his minutes on the rise because of Tristan Thompson's absence. He's been even more absurd in this expanded role, averaging 34.9 DK points per game across 22 minutes a night over his last nine games played. That's truly ridiculous in 22 minutes a night, and it's just a matter of time before that eventually creeps up. Milwaukee is not as tough of a defense as you might think, too, with the Bucks ranked 19th in points allowed.
Ivica Zubac FD - $5000 DK - $5500
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 32.8 DK - 33.64
Now that Serge Ibaka is out for the next few games, Zubac should continue to start at center for the Clippers. That's all we've been waiting for because it means that Zoo is finally getting the minute bump we've been craving. The big man has now scored at least 32 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, playing 30 minutes a night in that stretch. Those numbers are far from shocking when you see that Zoo is posting a 32-point average in the 11 games he's played at least 24 minutes, dropping at least 31 fantasy points in nine of those outings. We obviously love all of that, and it makes it hard to believe he remains in this $5K range.
If you have the salary, Nikola Jokic is obviously a great play with his near triple-double averages.
