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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday, 2/8/21
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Point Guard
Terry Rozier FD - $6100 DK - $6300
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 37.57 DK - 38.4
LaMelo Ball FD - $7800 DK - $8300
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 42.51 DK - 42.96
We live in a world where you can safely play multiple Charlotte point guards in daily fantasy sports contests. You may not want to hear it, but it's true. Ball and Rozier are starting alongside one another, and complimenting each other's game well, playing 36+ minutes a game in close contests. Houston, meanwhile, has been awful against opposing back-courts this season, allowing the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards and the 3rd most to opposing shooting guards. Feel free to run these guys together with a clear conscience.
Chris Paul FD - $7500 DK - $7600
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 40.23 DK - 41
Booker's return was supposed to slow Paul down, but nobody bothered to tell him - CP3 has topped 42 FanDuel points in two of the three games since. In the other game the Suns' starters got chased from the floor by New Orleans, who shot 51/42/81 for the game. This really isn't a dream spot for Paul, as the Cavs have allowed the 25th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, but the price is low enough thanks to Paul's recent lack of minutes that he should be a favorite to pay these prices and then some if this one stays close.
Keep an eye on Jamal Murray's status. If he sits, you could see Monte Morris as a chalk cash game play.
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal FD - $10800 DK - $9000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 56.73 DK - 58.4
Westbrook hasn't been playing back-to-backs, and in the last two games without him, Beal has put up 23 and 37 (!) shot attempts. The Bulls currently sit at third in the league in pace with a bottom 10 defensive efficiency, and staring down Zach LaVine on the other side isn't going to cause Beal to miss any sleep going into this one. This is a great spot to load up on Beal assuming you can get value elsewhere to afford him.
Anthony Edwards FD - $5800 DK - $6100
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 30.16 DK - 31.7
It's looking pretty safe to say that the number one overall pick in last year's draft has arrived, with Edwards dropping a 20/8/4/1/1 line against a stout OKC defense on Saturday. Part of that was fueled by Russell's absence, but honestly, his usage in this one wasn't all that different. This is a great spot against the Mavs' lowly defense, with Dallas ranking 4th from the bottom in defensive efficiency so far this year. While we generally like to trust a baseline projection rather than react to short term improvement, we do make an exception for high pedigree rookies, and Edwards certainly qualifies there.
Also considered: Collin Sexton.
Small Forward
Gordon Hayward FD - $7600 DK - $7900
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 39.55 DK - 40.43
Hayward is quietly back in his prime, posting career highs in FG% and 3P% while posting his second-best numbers in points per game, rebounds, and assists. He's a lock for 37+ minutes a game if the contest is remotely close, and his price has stopped rising. Tonight he'll take on the Rockets, who have played well defensively but who also rank fourth in pace this season. Hayward looks like a classic, high-floor, mid-range small forward today.
Khris Middleton FD - $7200 DK - $7500
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 36.4 DK - 37.92
This is a deceptively juicy spot to run Khris Middleton. Yes, he hasn't paid value much recently, and his price has been on the decline. But have you followed these Milwaukee game scripts? Middleton hasn't played his full run of minutes since January 29th, when he scored 42.6 FanDuel points in a losing effort against the Pelicans. He paid value on these prices in six straight games including that one, before going on this recent run of missing out on playing time. There's no line on this game as of this writing, but our system sees this game as being close enough that all of the starters get their run, making Middleton an excellent value even against a slow paced Nuggets team.
If Lauri Markkanen sits, Denzel Valentine becomes a nearly automatic cash game play.
Power Forward
Patrick Williams FD - $4500 DK - $5100
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 30.63 DK - 31.47
While Williams' stock goes up even more if Markkanen sits, he's a fantastic play regardless at a very shallow position today. He netted his first double-double on Saturday against the Magic, and gobbled up 7 boards each in the two games prior. He's playing a 32+ minute rotation (even in the Magic blowout) and gets by far his best match-up in recent memory against the Wizards. The hapless Wiz are on the second half of a back to back and are fresh off allowing 32 fantasy points in the first half to Cody Zeller. They have no defensive identity down low, and Williams should be poised for another big game here.
PJ Washington FD - $6200 DK - $5700
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 32.01 DK - 31.53
While Washington lost minutes in the Sunday game against the Wizards, he started and was alleged to have no minutes limit going into the game. We're assuming he plays on the second half of a back-to-back here, but if he does it looks like he was on track to go back to his old mid-30s minutes rotation. He was consisently paying these prices prior to his injury, and I like his chances against a Houston interior that will be missing Christian Wood's defensive presence.
Also considered: Maxi Kleber as a reasonably high floor value option, assuming he starts.
Center
DeMarcus Cousins FD - $6000 DK - $7100
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 38.28 DK - 40.4
In the last three games where Christian Wood sat, Cousins put up 34, 51, and 51 FanDuel points. That's pretty darn good at these price tags. Today he'll draw Cody Zeller, who is playing on the second half of a back-to-back and not really a defensive threat even when he's fresh. Assuming Boogie keeps his wits about him, this is a straight up price and opportunity mismatch.
Also considered: Cody Zeller, especially on DraftKings where Cousins is more expensive.
