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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday, 1/29/21
After just four games on Thursday, we have a full 10-game ledger here. What's really nice is that we have no postponements! This is one of the largest slates we've had without postponements, and it feels like all the COVID chaos is starting to simmer down a bit in NBA circles. That makes things a bit easier on us, but there's still a ton of value out there. With that in mind, let's go ahead and get into it!
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Point Guard
Reggie Jackson FD - $5800 DK - $6700
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 33.07 DK - 34.33
DFS sites are always slow to adjust to players gaining bigger roles, and that's certainly the case here with Jackson. The former Detroit PG has been forced into a monster role recently, with Paul George, Patrick Beverley and Kawhi Leonard all sidelined. In the last two games without those three guys, Jackson has collected 36 points, 15 rebounds, 14 assists, and three steals across 76 minutes of play. That's a two-game stretch you'd usually see from an $8,000 player, and it's pretty clear that he's a fantastic value in the $6K-range against a weak Orlando backcourt.
Darius Garland FD - $5200 DK - $5000
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 26.24 DK - 27.31
This is probably my favorite per-dollar play on the board. Garland was performing at a $7,000-level the first two weeks of the season before getting injured, and a slow ramp-up has lowered this price tag. The good news is that he's back in the starting lineup, and the minute's restriction has been limited. In his first five starts before getting injured, Garland averaged 36.3 DK points per game across 36 minutes a night. That looked like the guy we saw on Wednesday, dropping 26 fantasy points across 31 minutes of play. All of that makes this $5K price tag truly shocking, and it limits any risk that this tough matchup might present.
Elfrid Payton is in the low $5,000s, and his averages are too good to be priced that cheaply.
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal FD - $10500 DK - $10200
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 59.75 DK - 61.16
It's hard to fade Beal on any slate right now. With so many guys missing in Washington, he is the offense. That was certainly on full display when Beal took 37 shots on Wednesday, which is no surprise when you see that he's averaging 29.3 shots per game across his last seven fixtures. That's the sort of usage you see from a former NBA player in China, and that's honestly what this roster looks like right now, sadly. The huge shot totals have led to some monster fantasy production too, scoring at least 40 DK points in every game this year en route to a 52-point average. We're obviously not concerned with him facing a Hawks defense that surrenders the second-most fantasy points to opposing guards either.
Terance Mann FD - $4500 DK - $5600
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 26.98 DK - 26.72
Mann is another guy seeing a major bump because of all the absences in Los Angeles. After not being a part of the rotation in the first month, Mann is now starting at shooting guard. In the first two games in this role, Mann is averaging 11 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 2.0 steals across 31 minutes a night. That might not sound special, but that equates to about 25 fantasy points. Scoring 25 fantasy points with limited usage show just how valuable he can be, and anyone playing over 30 minutes a night at this price is hard to overlook. That's why he's one of the best values over on FanDuel at $4,500, and he'll be in most of our lineups over there.
Lou Williams is also a good pick for the shorthanded Clippers.
Small Forward
Gordon Hayward FD - $7600 DK - $7000
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 43.93 DK - 44.82
Hayward's price has dropped over the last two weeks, and it's tough to understand why. This dude has been playing at an All-Star level this season, showing no signs of slowing down. Hayward is averaging 23.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. He's been even better over his last five fixtures, averaging 42 fantasy points per game across 38 minutes a night in that span. The fact that his price dropped $1,400 since January 8 and he's performing like that makes him one of the best plays out there.
Luguentz Dort FD - $4900 DK - $4400
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 25.43 DK - 26.01
This has 40 minutes for Dort written all over it. We say that because he's one of the best wing defenders in the NBA, and he'll be needed all game to cover guys like James Harden, Kevin Durant, and Kyrie Irving. Anticipating a minutes bump like that from an improved player like this is a godsend for DFS, with Dort averaging 21.4 DK points per game across 29 minutes a night this season. Scoring 21-22 fantasy points isn't a whole lot, but with his minutes likely seeing a 30-40 percent increase, we expect those fantasy points to see a similar jump. That's why our projections have him around 26 fantasy points, and that's 6X value at just $4,400 on DK. Brooklyn's defense has been terrible too, ranked 29th in defensive efficiency since acquiring Harden.
If Donovan Mitchell is out again, Joe Ingles is a fantastic play in the $5,000-range.
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis FD - $9000 DK - $9200
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 48.64 DK - 51.68
Here's another guy who saw his price drop for no reason. Sabonis actually had a triple-double in his most recent game and saw his price drop $900 since Sunday. If you can figure that out, I'd love to know what DraftKings is thinking. Anyway, we're going to capitalize on that mistake, with Sabonis dropping at least 39 DK points in all but one game this season. That has led to a 48-point average, and we haven't even discussed this fantastic matchup. Charlotte currently surrenders the most fantasy points in the NBA to opposing PFs, which is actually the team Sabonis recorded that triple-double against on Wednesday.
Aaron Gordon FD - $6300 DK - $7100
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 36.24 DK - 37.1
This sounds strange to say, but Gordon has been playing a lot of point guard for Orlando recently. In fact, he's averaging 15.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 1.1 blocks over his last 12 games played. That even includes a dud in his most recent outing, which is why his price has dropped a bit. What makes that hot stretch even more intriguing is the fact that he shot just 42 percent from the field and 58 percent from the free-throw line in that span. He's inevitably going to improve on those numbers, and combining that with his ball-handling makes him one of the best options at the weakest position on this slate. We're also not worried about him facing a Clippers defense with their three-best defenders missing.
LaMarcus Aldridge has been playing a little better recently and could be a great value south of $6K.
Center
Joel Embiid FD - $9800 DK - $9400
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 57.31 DK - 59.03
Embiid is one of the frontrunners for MVP right now, and it's hard to understand why he remains below $10,000 on both sites. Outside of one game where Embiid barely played in the second half, he's got at least 40 DraftKings points in the other 14 fixtures while averaging over 52 fantasy points per game. That's utter dominance, especially when you consider that he's averaging 35.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.3 blocks over his last four outings. The best part about this play is the matchup though, with Minnesota sitting 27th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency this season. The T'Wolves also rank fourth in pace, which means more fantasy points in Embiid's pocket.
Al Horford FD - $5500 DK - $5900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 30.17 DK - 30.76
Horford showed on Wednesday just how valuable he can be. He collected 21 points, 11 rebounds, and three steals en route to a season-best 50 DraftKings points in that win over the Suns. This was a guy who was expected to see a usage bump this season too, simply because he's one of the only good big men on this roster. That makes this sub $6K price tag hard to figure, particularly after such a gem on Wednesday. The matchup against Brooklyn is the icing on the cake though, with the Nets surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Naz Reid remains below $6K on both sites and has been playing at a $7,000 level since taking over the starting center job.
