FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Saturday, 1/9/21

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Point Guard

Luka Doncic FD - $11600 DK - $11000
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 57.39 DK - 61.33

Trey Burke FD - $4100 DK - $3000
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 23.52 DK - 24.1

The Mavericks are going to be without some dudes on Saturday, losing Doran-Finney Smith, Jalen Brunson and Josh Richardson to health protocols. That leaves them pretty thin and likely makes Luka an extra safe play on this slate. He’s having another unbelievable statistical season averaging 33 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists on the season. His two areas of struggle which could point to these numbers actually going higher are the 20% three-point shooting and the seven turnovers per game. Both of those are likely headed for a little bit of positive regression.

Meanwhile, Trey Burke should draw the start or at minimum see 20+ minutes off the bench in a reserve role with home much the Mavs have lost in the backcourt. His per 30-minute stats this season are around 12 points three assists and three rebounds. Not all that impressive but he likely sees a second unit usage bump. At the minimum on DraftKings, he’s a cash game play with the current state of the Mavs.

Dejounte Murray FD - $7100 DK - $6900
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 35.78 DK - 36.24

Murray is finally getting steady, starters minutes after being shuffled all around with run last season. He’s getting about 32 minutes per game and the usage is up, getting close to 15 shots per game. He’s consistently getting on the boards with seven rebounds while also adding in five assists. Where he’s struggling is beyond the arc, shooting under 30% after going 37% from three last season. I think this is still a buy spot on Murray in a great matchup against a terrible Minnesota defense.

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal FD - $10100 DK - $9700
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 54.16 DK - 55.29

Russell Westbrook hasn’t played a back-to-back yet this season and it doesn’t look like he will on Saturday either. That being said, I suppose there’s some chance for it if the Wizards are getting a little panicky about their early-season record. In the last game without Westbrook, Beal took 29 shots and finished with 29 points, seven assists, and five rebounds and that was even going 0-7 from three. We will need to wait on the word on Russ here, but if he’s out then Beal is a lock and load play on DraftKings where he’s coming too cheap.

Terrence Ross FD - $5700 DK - $6400
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 34.9 DK - 35.88

He’s had a couple of rough games over the last two, but there’s some context there. Against the Cavaliers, he was in foul trouble and played only 22 minutes though still finished with 20 points. Against Houston, they got blown out and his run was cut considerably. But the two previous games he played 31 minutes each and averaged 21 points and three assists while chucking in about two steals per game. I think the sure will be there as long as the Magic heavy hitters are out of the lineup.

Small Forward

Gordon Hayward FD - $8000 DK - $8200
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 45.19 DK - 45.74

Hayward has come over to Charlotte on the max contract and is predictably putting up numbers for this team. On a little more than 34 minutes per game, he’s scoring 22 points per game while adding in six rebounds and four assists. There have also been gains in the defensive stats where he’s averaging almost two blocks+steals. This matchup against Atlanta isn’t as good as it’s been in the past, but it’s still above average. He is getting up there in price, but it’s warranted.

Tim Hardaway Jr. FD - $5500 DK - $5900
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 31.32 DK - 33.11

Like I said with the guys above, the Mavericks are really short in the backcourt/ wing for Saturday’s game. That should mean Hardaway rejoins the starting lineup and plays big minutes. Overall, he’s had a strong season scoring 16 points per game on 40% shooting from beyond the arc. He’s taking more threes as well, eight per game which is up by more than one attempt over last year. He’s likely the chalk if in the starting lineup and considering the state of Dallas for this game.

Power Forward

Kelly Olynyk FD - $5000 DK - $5300
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 27.64 DK - 28.12

Olynyk got into foul trouble the last game which cut his minutes, but he’s been playing just a hair under 30 minutes per game over the previous three games in the starting role. In that stretch, he was averaging 14 points, eight rebounds and three assists. That’s fantastic production for these price points and makes him a great mid-tier play in cash games. It isn’t sexy and Spoelstra is known for jacking around rotations, but his role feels at least safe-ish for now.

Domantas Sabonis FD - $8800 DK - $9100
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 47.07 DK - 49.79

Sabonis is getting up there in price for sure, but he’s still a play at these salary points on Saturday. He’s putting up 21 points and 11 rebounds to go with six assist this season which is about as good as you’ll see from anyone at these salaries. Sabonis doesn’t draw a great matchup here against the Suns, but the latter is coming off allowing huge games to Blake Griffin and Jerami Grant respectively. It’s not a warm and fuzzy feeling throwing in Sabonis here but it’s hard to argue with the results so far.

Center

Nikola Vucevic FD - $8800 DK - $8800
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 48.5 DK - 50.91

The Magic are paper-thin and coming off a brutal blowout loss to the Rockets on Friday night. But I still think Vucevic is a great play in this game. He played 30 minutes even in the blowout and finished with a 22-12 line. That’s around his season average but the Magic have been more inclined to play him minutes of late. The concern is that without Fultz, Gordon, and Fournier, Orlando is struggling to find any offense whatsoever. That’s correct, but Vuce still has a very high floor because of how he’s used on both ends of the court.

Willie Cauley-Stein FD - $4100 DK - $4000
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 24.14 DK - 23.06

He’s firmly in the starting lineup now at center for the Mavs and it’s likely the minutes look even better on Saturday facing up against another big in Vucevic. He’s averaged 25 minutes per game over the last two with a 10 point, eight-rebound line while throwing in a block and steal each. That more than gets it done at these prices and the minutes should be there again in this game.