Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 9/3/14

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Pitchers

Early Slate

Jon Lester - FD 9800 DK 11600 DD 20150 DFSTR 9400
I would love every single thing about this matchup except that he's pitching opposite King Felix and that's going to make getting the win awfully tough. Otherwise, this lines up to be a great start for Lester. To begin with, his peripherals this season have been nutso with a strikeout rate higher than a batter an inning and he's walking less that two batters per nine. His efficiency should play well against a Mariner team that ranks second to last in the league against lefties. Seattle struggles with that platoon and Lester should be able to work up and down the order.

Consider Edinson Volquez and that I'm even saying that shows you how bad the pitching is after Lester.

Late Slate

Jacob deGrom - FD 8200 DK 9600 DD 18650 DFSTR 10300
deGrom's enjoyed a solid and somewhat surprising rooking season for the Mets. His 3.35 xFIP and above average strikeout rate point to a guy who should be a mainstay in the Mets' rotation for a while. He gets the Marlins today who won't just roll over. They rank in the top half of the league in team wOBA against righties, but the news here is they strike out a ton. They go down on strikes 24% of the time to righties. The ballpark works in deGRom's favor as well. This is a solid, if unspectacular matchup on a short slate without any top tier pitching.

Andrew Cashner - FD 7800 DK 6600 DD 13150 DFSTR 5000
The evening slate of games seems fraught with pitching peril. So I'm happy to target a slightly above average pitcher against a weaker offense. Cashner doesn't have huge K upside, but he strikes out just a shade less than eight batters per nine and has a mid 3's xFIP. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom third of the league against righties on the season and obviously that counts a bunch of ABs with Goldie in the lineup. They aren't a good hitting team and Cashner should be able to exploit a really weak bottom of the lineup.

Consider Tom Koehler

 

Catchers

Early Slate

Michael McKenry - FD 2700 DK 3200 DD 6750 DFSTR 3000
Jackson Williams - FD 2900 DK 2000 DD 5000 DFSTR 3000
It's not that I love either of these guys particularly, it's simply that they are the catchers playing in Coors this afternoon. I'm not inclined to have this be my process on a normal slate, as there are definitely times to avoid Coors. But on a short one, in a game with a high over/under against an average pitcher like Vogelsong, I think you can take their cheap prices and just move on.

Late Slate

Brian McCann - FD 2800 DK 3800 DD 7600 DFSTR 4800
I've tempered some of my excitement over his value from earlier in the season mostly because he's just continued to be a disappointing play. I know some of it stems from bad luck, but he's also been shifted to death and his Babip reflects this. He actually bunted against the shift last night, but don't expect that to become the norm. Today he faces Ranuado who's been a little slice of terrible since getting called up. I like some Yankees in this late slate and McCann makes a solid value at catcher. (Note: McCann went yard as I was halfway done with this writeup)

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 3100 DK 4400 DD 9100 DFSTR 3900
Don't let the ERA fool you, Kyle Hendricks has been a below average pitcher on the season with rough peripherals and an xFIP close to four. Lucroy's hit righty pitching well all year with an .843 OPS and 134 wRC+ on that side of the split. His prices are fine enough and makes a solid play hitting near the top of the lineup.

 

First Basemen

Early Slate

Ike Davis - FD 2300 DK 3000 DD 6950 DFSTR 5800
Shelby Miller looks pretty broken right now and is having an impossible time striking anyone out. If you are looking for a super cheap first base option in the early slate this is the way to go. Davis isn't a masher, but he fares fine enough against righty pitching with a 124 wRC+ and shows a ton of patience sporting close to a 16% walk rate. Miller, who's struggled with command, gives Davis a nice floor today given the price.

Consider Justin Morneau

Late Slate

Chris Davis - FD 3400 DK 4700 DD 10200 DFSTR 10900
Trying to make up for lost time (or more than half a season) Crush has been turning it on of late with more hits and taking a ton of walks. Dylan Axelrod's been good his last too games, but it's really tough to believe he's all of a sudden figured out how to be an awesome pitcher after years of mediocrity. I wouldn't totally dismiss Axelrod (stranger things and all) but am willing to bet on Davis and the O's getting to him today.

Consider Mark Teixeria against Ranaudo with that short porch staring him down in right.

 

Second Basemen

Early Slate

Asdrubal Cabrera - FD 2700 DK 3600 DD 8250 DFSTR 4700
(SS on DK) Don't look now but some guy named Carlos Frias is pitching for the Dodgers today. Dude's unspectacular minor league track record leads me to believe not-so-great things are in store for him on the major league level. Asdrubal is coming at fair prices and though I wish he hit higher in the order, you can snag him with the idea the Nats should put up some runs today. He's better against righties and I want to target young and unproven arms with limited K potential as much as possible.

Consider D.J. LeMahieu

Late Slate

Brian Dozier - FD 3600 DK 5000 DD 10450 DFSTR 7000
Is running kind of bad against lefties for the season, but historically this is the better side of his split with a career 133 wRC+ and .841 OPS against southpaws. Today he faces John Danks, a dude who, how do I put it, sucks. Danks has been rocked this season with nearly a five ERA and peripherals that point to him belonging maybe in the minors. Some righty Twins are for sure in play today.

Jason Kipnis - FD 3000 DK 4100 DD 8550 DFSTR 4000
Just when you are ready to write off Justin Verlander he comes out strikes out a bunch of guys in his last start. But he's complained of shoulder fatigue and that's a big sign that something could be off. Second base is a tough one on the late slate, but I think you can consider Kipnis here especially if you aren't a believer in Justin (nude pics and all).

 

Shortstops

Early Slate

Brandon Crawford - FD 2500 DK 3700 DD 6400 DFSTR 5600
Kind of here by default. Crawford is far from an dynamo on offense, but he facing a crappy righty in Christian Bergman whose major league tenure has included striking out less than six batters per nine and walking more than three. Crawford is platoon neutral for his career (below average against both) but his punt prices in a game that should feature some scoring is enough to squeeze him in there on a short slate. The salaries mitigate the potential downside.

Consider Jhonny Peralta against Volquez
Late Slate

Elvis Andrus - FD 2400 DK 3500 DD 7450 DFSTR 3800
Coming very cheap everywhere and I think he makes a good cash game play against Jason Vargas who has a mid 4's xFIP against righty bats over his career. Andrus is actually a pretty tough out for lefties as he strikes out less than 9% of the time in that split and has a mid .700's OPS (perfectly acceptable for a cheap SS). Hitting in the two hole gives him the chance at the extra at bat and he benefits from hitting in front of both Beltre and Rios who also hit lefties well.

Consider Alexei Ramirez against Trevor May who isn't a favorite to see the fifth inning in this one.

 

Third Basemen

Early Slate

Pablo Sandoval - FD 3200 DK 4700 DD 8850 DFSTR 10300
At the risk of just playing all the Giants in this one (or at least all of the cheaper lefty ones), Panda makes another strong play today against Bergman who's actually been worse against righties this year, but the sample size is too small to be considered anything but worth a quick mention. Dude hasn't been good and facing the Giants today in Coors could be rough. Panda is much better against righties and should be the cash game play of the early afternoon slate.

Consider Nolan Arenado and Matt Carpenter both more expensive options, but I think from a value perspective they aren't too far off from Sandoval today.
Late Slate

Adrian Beltre - FD 3100 DK 4400 DD 9550 DFSTR 5600
His price is continuing to drop and I want to buy now as it reaches close to the bottom. He's simply too good against lefties to pass up at these prices. His .974 OPS and 166 wRC+ this season line up with his career averages in that they point to a guy who's much better on the lefty side of the split. Jason Vargas is a below average lefty, and though the ballpark doesn't help much in the power department, I'm not straying too far from this guy on the late slate.

David Wright - FD 2700 DK 3700 DD 8100 DFSTR 3000
Wright does make things interesting though as he's picked up the offense some of late and faces a weaker righty in Koehler. I'm not one to buy too much into streakiness as it's tough to predict over the long term. But it at least makes you feel better knowing he's not dead or something.

 

Outfielders

Early Slate

Angel Pagan - FD 2600 DK 4900 DD 8550 DFSTR 8100
Hunter Pence - FD 4200 DK 5400 DD 10950 DFSTR 15000
Dollar-for-dollar I actually like Pagan a lot more in this matchup against Bergman, but Pence is in play as well if you can afford him and want to target the OF our system likes for the most raw points on the early slate. Both of these guys should feature in a game that could see more than a few Giants crossing the plate. Pagan is much better against righty arms while Pence is on the worse side of his split. But Coors is Coors.

Bryce Harper - FD 3200 DK 3800 DD 9550 DFSTR 5500
Like I said for Asdrubal, Carlos Frias is on the mound for the Dodgers today. I haven't heard of him either. And that's good news for a guy like Harper. His season's been kind of a nightmare, but I'm not cashing out on him just yet. The price is in the mid tier and on a short slate I don't see too much of an issue in fitting him in here. His big issue this season has been the strikeout. But Frias didn't have a big K rate in the minors and I don't expect it to jump on that call up.

Consider Gregor Blanco

Late Slate

Nelson Cruz - FD 3300 DK 4900 DD 10200 DFSTR 6900
Adam Jones - FD 3500 DK 4800 DD 9400 DFSTR 5300
Nick Markakis - FD 2800 DK 4000 DD 7400 DFSTR 3200
I'm really liking the idea of stacking some Orioles bats in the late slate. Again, I'm playing more of the odds that Axelrod's recent success is unsustainable as related to his career numbers. And while Cruz and Jones both hit lefties better for their careers, our system thinks the O's are in a great spot today. The ballpark boosts power an Axelrod is a flyball pitcher. Could be some of the long ball in this one.

Alex Rios - FD 2500 DK 3500 DD 8450 DFSTR 4600
Almost always shows up on the same day in the picks as Beltre and there's a reason why. He's another dude who hammers lefty pitching. This season he's put up a .926 OPS with a .389 wOBA on that side of the split. Stacking the middle of the Ranger order today is something I'll be running more often than not.

Consider Billy Hamilton and Jay Bruce
Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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