Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 9/2/14

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Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw - FD 12300 DK 14900 DD 22850 DFSTR 15000
Kind of have to throw his name out there at this point, almost no matter the price. I hate saying stuff like that because of course there is a price for everyone, but Kershaw's talent is simply too good to ignore in these formats. Even last game, one that started rough (by only his standards) ended with him having struck out 10 over 8 innings and earning the win. He's just on a different level and is so dialed in. The Nationals aren't a great matchup and rank in the top third of the league against lefties. But I think Clayton bypasses some of that with his skill. Not a sure thing, but among the top tier of pitching there is him and then a huge, huge dropoff to the next guy.

Mike Minor - FD 7400 DK 7900 DD 13600 DFSTR 6000
I'd like to pat myself on the back for being one of the true Minor believers this season. I lost some money on him early in the season, but patience has paid off as his bad luck finally ran out and his last four games he's average 7 IP 6 Ks with a couple of wins thrown in there. Today he gets a middling Phillies team that strikes out more than 21% of the time against lefties. Minor is still a tad underpriced but nowhere like he's been his last couple of starts. But I'm buying on him today. He still has a mid 3's xFIP and strikes out about eight batters per nine.

Wade Miley - FD 7200 DK 7900 DD 13850 DFSTR 5000
There is some risk involved with this dude as he can struggle with his control limiting his innings on a game-to-game basis. But when he gets rolling downhill the K's can come in bunches. I love the matchup against the Padres in Petco. San Diego has spent a season mired in the offensive basement. And while not the complete lump of crap they imitated earlier in the season, still aren't by any means good. Miley and Minor make it a little easier (though not a ton) easier to fit Kershaw on two SP sites, or just work as one offs on their own.

Consider James Paxton as a crazy deal on FanDuel and I'd take his skill set against nearly anyone at this price.

 

Catchers

Suprisingly, there are a few guys I like here today.
Evan Gattis - FD 2700 DK 4000 DD 8450 DFSTR 4200
I much prefer him against righties, but I kind of like anyone facing Kyle Kendrick, he of the 4.41 xFIP and inability to strike out major league batters on a consistence basis. Gattis has actually fared well enough against righties this season with a 116 wRC+ and close to .800 OPS. This is as much about the ballpark and the matchup as anything else though.

Miguel Montero - FD 2400 DK 3700 DD 8300 DFSTR 4200
Odrisamer Despaigne is another one of those below average arms on the mound today. He, like Kendrick, has an impossible time striking batters out and doesn't have the control to get away with that kind of thing over the long term. I don't love Petco for lefties but Montero hits righties real well and should be able to do something today at the plate.

Salvador Perez - FD 2700 DK 3900 DD 7150 DFSTR 4800
Derek Holland hasn't pitched in the majors since last season and even then wasn't exactly Sandy Koufax on the mound. This is his first big league start in a long while and I like the Royals today because of Holland's possible rust.

Consider Travis D'Arnaud and Brian McCann

 

First Basemen

Justin Morneau - FD 3200 DK 4200 DD 9100 DFSTR 3000
Against righties this season Morneau has been nothing short of magnificent and much of that success has come at home in Coors. At home against righties Morneau has a .908 OPS with a 138 wRC+. Granted Yusmeiro Petit's been a damn fine pitcher and his last game against the Rockies was an ace level start. But he's exposed against lefties and Coors doesn't allow mistakes. I'm willing to buy on Morneau today.

Edwin Encarnacion - FD 3800 DK 4500 DD 10550 DFSTR 5600
Our system wanted you to target bats last game against Hellickson and it paid off as he was chased early by the Orioles. I see it happening again with the Blue Jays and I'll be stacking them in some places for sure. E5 can hit righties and has an OPS over .900 against them this season. The ballpark doesn't help much as it limits power all the way around. But I like matchup.

Billy Butler - FD 2200 DK 4000 DD 7650 DFSTR 3300
If you are looking to go a little cheaper to fit Kershaw then Butler might be a solid punt option against Holland. He's a min price guy in some spots for a reason as he won't kill it with power upside. But as I said for Perez, Holland could be knocking the rust off today and grabbing Butler around the middle of the order could serve some purpose.

Consider Joe Mauer against Hector Noesi and Freddie Freeman against Kendrick.

 

Second Basemen

Brian Dozier - FD 3700 DK 5000 DD 10850 DFSTR 7600
He's another guy who'd I'd rather target against some weaker lefties, but he's well above average against righty pitching and Hector Noesi is a below average pitcher. Dozier's 122 wRC+ against righties this season rates out fine and though I think he's a little steep on DraftKings, there are some places you can buy him for some safety against a weak arm.

Dee Gordon - FD 2900 DK 4600 DD 8900 DFSTR 6600
A great deal on FanDuel today, Gordon makes for an interesting play against Fister who's an extreme groundball pitcher. I like taking some speed guys in these situations because with the ball on the ground they can work their way on base with even just a moderate bounce of the ball. Gordon is in that kind of spot today and where he's coming cheaper it's worth considering even though Fister is slightly above average with a 3.76 xFIP.

Consider Howie Kendrick as a punt play and Javier Baez for some upside against Gallardo

 

Shortstops

Jose Reyes - FD 3300 DK 4600 DD 8550 DFSTR 3000
I'm inclined to pay up for Reyes today. Hellickson is platoon neutral for his career (a tick worse against lefties) and Reyes is a tough out for righties. He puts the ball in play at a high rate and should be able to use his legs against Hellickson. The rest of the SS position is pretty much a crapshoot and getting one of the better bats, hitting at the top of the order against a middling pitcher is enough for me to go the extra buck or two on the guy.

Brandon Crawford - FD 2300 DK 3400 DD 5900 DFSTR 3000
He's been brutal against righties this season thanks in some part to a lower Babip. But for his career he's been about platoon neutral. Neutral in this case means he's been neutralized by all pitchers. But the over/under on this game suggests there are some runs crossing the plate and I think you can punt on SS in that kind of situation.

Elvis Andrus - FD 2400 DK 3500 DD 7400 DFSTR 3400
Another guy who I'd much prefer facing lefties, but he's coming so cheap against Jeremy Guthrie that I think you can play the opposite side of the split on this one. Granted, he's been terrible against righties. But this position is tough to fill today so if you aren't going Reyes, go cheap against bad arms.

 

Third Basemen

Pablo Sandoval - FD 3200 DK 4500 DD 8700 DFSTR 8600
A few things going in Big Panda's favor today. He's teeing off in Coors against Jordan Lyles and that's pretty much all of the research you need on the subject. Coors is Coors and Lyles is the kind of guy who's allowed an .830 OPS over his career to lefty bats. Panda hits righty pitching well for his career and should be a high % cash game play.

David Wright - FD 2600 DK 3600 DD 7900 DFSTR 3000
Not a year he'll look back on fondly as he's really struggled from the plate. And his prices reflect the severe downside he's shown all season. But there might be some light on the horizon. He has some hits in his last few games and today faces the abomination that is Brad Penny. Penny shouldn't be back in the majors, and yet here he is and bringing along his mid 5's xFIP. Wright's prices are simply too low to ignore today considering his spot in the order and the awesome matchup.

 

Outfielders

Angel Pagan - FD 2700 DK 4800 DD 8750 DFSTR 8200
If I'm of the mind to fit Kershaw in there today Pagan makes a fantastic play. So much going for him including a 112 wRC+ for his career against righties. As I said for Panda, Jordan Lyles struggles against lefty pitching and Pagan hitting leadoff in a game that could feature some big run scoring is a spot I want to be in. His price is cheap across the industry and he adds some speed to the equation that keeps his floor a bit higher. I will say I think he is way too overpriced on DraftKings and I don't think I'll be buying there.

Billy Hamilton - FD 3300 DK 4800 DD 8900 DFSTR 7500
Jay Bruce - FD 3200 DK 3800 DD 7600 DFSTR 3000
FOr his career Bud Norris has allowed an .800 OPS to lefty bats. This season he's been running good on his Hr/FB% which has kept the platoon splits against lefties a little lower than his career average. That's a good sign for buying guys like Hamilton and Bruce. Granted you are considering them for different reasons, but Norris isn't good and figuring the lefties are in good spots against him makes these two dudes worth the thought.

Kole Calhoun - FD 3200 DK 4300 DD 8400 DFSTR 3000
Been waiting for his price to come down over the last week plus and it's dipped back into the realm of normal. Brad Peacock is about as bad as it gets against lefties for his career. He's allowed over an .820 OPS to lefty bats in his career and Calhoun, from the leadoff spot makes a solid play today.

Giancarlo Stanton - FD 4800 DK 5300 DD 12050 DFSTR 3000
Marcell Ozuna - FD 2800 DK 3700 DD 7350 DFSTR 3000
Both of these guys hit lefty pitching well (not really news here about Stanton, but I'm lumping them together at different price points). Niese is fine enough against righties but these two guys could cause some havoc in the middle of the order.

Consider Hunter Pence going again in Coors though he's expensive against the righty Lyles. Curtis Granderson is a punt against Penny. And there's a stacking option of Melky Cabrera and Colby Rasmus against Hellickson.
Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

 

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