Week 5 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 10/8/20

Recapping last week, these were bets put out in our article along with those given away in our members-only chatroom.

Cowboys -4.5 (L)
Bears +2.5 (L)
Bears - Colts OVER 43 (L)
Raiders +3 (L)
Bucs-Chargers Over 43 (W)
Vikings +4.5 (W)
Vikings +184 (W)
Week 5 Record 3-4
Season 13-11

Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now!

Pittsburgh Steelers
Opponent PHI
Steelers -7
Let’s summarize the Eagles season so far:
- Loss to the awful Redskins
- Smoked by the Rams
- Tie against the Bengals
- Win over the 49ers second (or third) team

This hasn’t exactly been an amazing season. In fact, it’s been downright awful.

Meanwhile, the Steelers got a surprise bye with the entirety of Tennessee testing positive for Covid in Week 4. So now, the Eagles have to fly back across the country and face a team that’s beyond well-rested.

The Eagles’ offense has been about league average this season, but the defense has been atrocious, They rank 31st in offensive DVOA through the first four weeks, which is even more damning considering it’s non-schedule adjusted. They’ve completely stunk, needing a pick-6 against the 49ers to basically get over the scoring hump in Week 4.

Meanwhile, the Steelers’ defense ranks third through their three games and should be able to stymie any semblance of a game plan from the Eagles. The offense is slightly below average and hasn’t exactly played a murderer’s row in the Giants, Broncos, and Texans. But they’ve put up points in each and play at a faster pace.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Opponent HOU
Jaguars +6
Jaguars +228
What exactly have the Texans done to be six point favorites against anyone. Sure, they played a tough schedule through the first three, but then rolled over against the Vikings in Week 4 and then fired their coach. They have Deshaun Watson, but almost nothing else after him on offense after trading away for DeAndre Hopkins. Yes, they still have technically played the toughest strength of schedule to start the season, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other but that gap slimmed after last week’s loss but none of the games were particularly competitive (maybe the Steelers, but not really) and now they deal with the uncertainty around a coaching change.

And sure, the Jags aren’t much better from a record perspective, sitting at 1-3 through four weeks with damning losses to the Bengals and Dolphins after the Week 1. But they pulled it out the surprise of the season in Week 1 against the Colts and were a 53-yard Gostkowski FG from hitting OT with the Titans. This team has fight and is the 6th-ranked offense through the first two weeks. Minshew is completing 72% of his passes and they have a balanced offense. Sure, the defense is a train wreck, but so is the Texans’ offense. I love the cover here and have a half-unit on the Jags +228.

Dallas Cowboys
Opponent NYG

New York Giants
Opponent DAL

Under 54
Dallas is on a pretty incredible scoring run to start the season and are also allowing opponents to be on their own incredible scoring runs to start the season. It’s been nothing short of, well, I don’t know the exact word to describe what we are seeing with this team. Through four weeks, the Cowboys have scored 126 points (3rd in the league) but they’ve allowed 146 which is eight more than the next closest team (Atlanta). The Dallas games have had totals of 37, 79, 69 and 87. This is absurd and something has to give.

Meanwhile, the Giants are ate the polar opposite end of things. They’ve score a league-low 47 points with the next closest team (the Jets) with 18 more. But they’ve also allowed only 96 which ranks them in the top third of opposing points surrendered. They’ve run the 4th-least amount of offensive plays and are middle of the pack in terms of opponent plays.

The average total this season across the NFL is 51.3 putting this game over that total. In terms of our system it sees the Dallas scoring as not even close to sustainable, while the Giants having little room for growth in their offense. This has us firmly betting the under and relying on the Cowboys to improve some on the defensive end after the rough start.

Want more betting picks for this week's games? We'll be giving them out in our Member's Only Chatroom leading up to game time. 

GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!