Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 8/30/20
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This week has been crazier than most and that's saying something. The good news is that we appear to be back to normal here, with 10 games on this Sunday slate. There's actually one pitcher who stands above everyone else, so, let's kick things off with him.
Pitchers
Kenta Maeda FD 9700 DK 9400
Opponent - DET (Casey Mize) Park - DET
FD - 36.2 DK - 20.09
Maeda has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league this season and a stellar matchup against the Tigers makes him an easy pick. The right-hander is currently pitching to a 2.21 ERA and 0.71 WHIP across his first six starts of the season. That looks even better when you consider his 9.8 K/9 rate, making him super dangerous against an offense like the Tigers. Not only does Detroit rank 27th in OBP, the Motor City Kitties also own the worst K rate in the league. That has Maeda and the Twins entering this game as a -190 favorite and it appears everything is in his favor here.
Tanner Roark FD 7200 DK 10600
Opponent - BAL (Jorge López) Park - BAL
FD - 33.04 DK - 16.57
Roark is quietly a really solid pitcher. These DFS sites keep his price low because he never goes off but he rarely gets blown up either. We're talking about a guy who hasn't allowed more than four runs in any start this season while generating a 3.73 ERA and 1.25 WHIP for his career. Those averages were even better than I expected and it makes him a solid option against the Orioles. While they're middle of the pack in most statistics so far this season, this is an offense that finished 26th in OPS last season and appears to be in for some negative regression. We also have Roark projected to be a -150 favorite in this game and that only adds to his value at this dirt-cheap price tag as a pitcher two option on DraftKings.
Catcher/First Base
José Abreu FD 4100 DK 5300
Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - KC
FD - 9.92 DK - 7.54
How can we possibly fade Abreu right now? Over his last 11 games played, Abreu has four doubles, nine dingers and 18 RBI en route to a .500 OBP, 1.150 SLG and 1.650 OPS. That makes him the hottest hitter in baseball and it's scary to think that he has one of the best matchups possible here. Not only has Kris Bubic never pitched above Double-A before this season, he's also pitching to a 5.96 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season. That's truly horrifying with Abreu batting from the right side, amassing a .392 OBP and .982 OPS against lefties since 2018.
Ryan Braun FD - 1B 2700 DK - 4200
Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - MIL
FD - 13.69
Braun is always one of our favorite plays out there when he faces a lefty. For his career, Braun is posting a .390 OBP, .604 SLG and .995 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. Not many players can post numbers like that throughout a 13-year career and a .933 OPS against them last season means he hasn't lost much of a step. It's definitely not a southpaw we're scared of either, with Brault pitching to a 4.88 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in his five-year career.
Second Base
Keston Hiura FD 3600 DK 5000
Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - PIT
FD - 12.75 DK - 9.7
Let's keep the righty bats rolling against Steven Brault. We already discussed his ugly numbers in the Braun write-up and it makes the Brewers one of the best stacks of the day in a hitter's haven like Miller Park. Since 2019, Hiura has simply been one of the best bats in baseball. In the Minors, he posted a .330 AVG, .688 SLG and 1.095 OPS. In the Majors, he owns a .349 OBP and .877 SLG. That's all we can ask for from a light hitting position and we can't overlook the fact that he gets the platoon advantage against a lefty as well.
Mike Moustakas FD 3000
Opponent - CHC (Tyler Chatwood) Park - CHC
FD - 11.65 DK - 8.77
This price tag is silly. The second base position is easily the weakest position in terms of fantasy baseball and getting to use Moustakas there is an absolute treat. We're talking about a guy who's got at least 28 homers in three-straight seasons, en route to a .498 SLG and .817 OPS in that span. Not many second basemen post averages like those and it's even better when you consider that Moose gets to face a righty here. In that same span, MM has a SLG north of .500 against right-handers and gets to face a pitcher here who's allowed 14 hits and 11 runs over his last two starts.
Shortstop
Marcus Semien FD 3000 DK 5100
Opponent - HOU (Framber Valdez) Park - HOU
FD - 0 DK - 0
This price is insulting. Semien has been one of the best shortstops in baseball over the last two seasons, garnering some MVP votes last year. In fact, he's got a .356 OBP, .499 SLG and .855 OPS since then, atop one of the best lineups in baseball. What makes him really attractive here is that he gets to face a lefty, posting an OPS just shy of .900 against them in that same span. While Valdez is a solid arm, we can't overlook the fact that Semien is sitting below $3,000 with such productive numbers in his back pocket, leading off for an elite lineup. Semien was scratched in the second half of the double header yesterday, but if he gets the nod he's a great play on both sites.
Jorge Polanco FD 2800 DK 4900
Opponent - DET (Casey Mize) Park - DET
FD - 11.29 DK - 8.65
Polanco is always in the heart of the Twins lineup and that alone makes him a good option. What makes him a great pick here is that he gets a good matchup and is priced way too affordably. Let's start with that matchup, with Mize pitching to a 7.04 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in his short Major League career. What it also does is put the platoon advantage in Polanco's favor, with Jorge amassing a .373 OBP and .851 OPS against righties since 2018. That makes this price tag really hard to understand, especially with the Twins projected for nearly six runs.
Third Base
Manny Machado FD 4200 DK 5600
Opponent - COL (Ryan Castellani) Park - COL
FD - 16.09 DK - 12.16
Machado is always one of the top options whenever he gets to hit in Coors Field. In 97 career at-bats in Coors Field, Manny is providing a .333 AVG, .403 OBP, .548 SLG and .950 OPS. That's pretty much on par with what every stud does in Colorado and he's been even more ridiculous there over the last two years. Getting to face Ryan Castellani might be the best part of this though. As a Rockies fan, I just don't believe in his 3.54 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He posted a 9.00 ERA and 2.04 WHIP between A-Ball and Triple-A last season and one has to believe that Coors Field will be lead to his eventual regression.
Jedd Gyorko FD 2300 DK 4200
Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - PIT
FD - 11.31 DK - 8.53
The Brewers are probably our favorite stack of the day and one of the biggest reasons for that is because these guys are cheap. Gyorko actually bats third or fourth anytime they face a left-hander and that makes him an amazing value with his dirt-cheap price tag. Against lefties this year, he's collecting a .355 OBP, .755 SLG and 1.086 OPS. He's always been much better against lefties and it's hard to overlook those averages from such a cheap guy, particularly in such a tasty matchup.
Outfield
J.D. Martinez FD 3400 DK 5600
Opponent - WSH (Austin Voth) Park - WSH
FD - 14.57 DK - 10.95
The Boston slugger is always someone worth considering and he's even more enticing when his price is so cheap. When's the last time you've seen Martinez flirt with $3K on FanDuel? We're talking about a player who's providing a .382 OBP, .602 SLG and .984 OPS since 2017. There's only a couple of guys with better averages and despite his recent struggles, we can't fade him at this price. Getting to face Austin Voth only adds to Martinez' intrigue, with Voth pitching to a 6.65 ERA and 1.62 WHIP this season.
Franmil Reyes FD 2800 DK 4100
Opponent - STL (Adam Wainwright) Park - STL
FD - 9.96 DK - 7.46
Out of all the stupid prices on this slate, this is undoubtedly the most mind-boggling one. Reyes has been performing like a $4,000 player on FD and a $5,000 player on DK for nearly a month now. In fact, Reyes is hitting .367 over his last 21 games, en route to a .421 OBP, .671 SLG and 1.098 OPS. That's a big sample size of success and we're certainly not worried about a washed-up Adam Wainwright slowing him down.
Avisaíl García FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - PIT
FD - 11.72 DK - 8.96
Let's cap off our Brewers stack with Avisail. The right-hander has actually found himself atop this lineup a lot recently and he should be there yet again against a left-hander. We've talked plenty about how bad Brault is and it's got the Brewers projected to score over five runs. That's great news for a leadoff hitter, especially one with some pop. So far this season, Garcia has a .441 OBP and .960 OPS against left-handers. All of these huge splits for the Brewers are really bad news for Brault and it would be hard to imagine them not surpassing their projected run total with so much in their favor.
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image sources
- Jose Abreu: (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)