Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 8/30/14

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Pitchers

Zack Greinke - FD 9700 DK 10700 DD 19050 DFSTR 8600
Stephen Strasburg - FD 9500 DK 10800 DD 20100 DFSTR 8200
I'm lumping these guys together for a reason. First off, our system has them at around the same points per dollar multiplier on both FanDuel and DraftKings. They are both priced under Scherzer and Sale (who face each other) and both have prices falling because of some recent performance issues. The concerns for both are real though slightly different. Greinke has seen a dip in strikeouts since revealing he was dealing with some elbow discomfort. And Strasburg's been a human roller coaster, mixing in equal parts pitching gems and nightmares. Greinke has the better matchup against the Padres, though the strikeouts do concern me. Strasburg faces a middling Mariners team in a good ballpark. I wouldn't say either is a sure thing, but I think they are both in solid spots considering the prices and upside. I suppose the downside is there for both, but at these prices relative to the rest of the pitching field, I think you can swing it.

Jake Odorizzi - FD 7800 DK 8200 DD 14850 DFSTR 7300
Despite some recent offense, the Red Sox still do rank in the bottom third of the league in offense against righties on the season. I'm not inclined to think many of their offensive woes have been solved, especially considering they remain committed to playing the young guys. Odorizzi's turned in a solid season with his biggest benefit coming from the K upside. He strikes out about 10 batters per nine. The walks are little high for my taste, but the opponent leaves a great deal to be desired. If you are looking in the middle tier, or someone to pair with a higher priced arm, he's the way to go.

Mike Fiers - FD 8000 DK 9600 DD 12350 DFSTR 9300
Not as good as his sub 2 ERA would suggest, but the peripherals are kind of off the charts considering he's been in the minors for the better part of the last two seasons. The strikeouts are there and the Giants rank 22nd in the league against righty pitching this season.

Early slate - I suppose you need to choose between Sale or Scherzer. I don't feel good about it and I might end up relatively skipping this run of games. Though I suppose if you really wanted to shoot the moon you could consider Justin Masterson against a K-heavy Cubs team.

 

Catchers

Michael McKenry - FD 2800 DK 3500 DD 7150 DFSTR 4600
The sample size is for sure small, but McKenry's torn up lefty pitching in a limited run this season. One number I like though is his walk rate. That's not generally something one runs hot with, but rather shows a patient approach at the plate. If you aren't hitting in Coors, one of the next best places is Chase Field. McKenry faces lefty Vidal Nuno and the price is right in the evening slate.

Wilson Ramos - FD 2700 DK 3600 DD 8950 DFSTR 3400
With Elias getting the start today I think you can consider some Nats righties like Ramos. His splits are solid out of the catcher position and hitting around the middle of a solid Nationals' offense makes him a decent value at a position that's always tough to fill.

 

Early Slate
Brian McCann - FD 2700 DK 3800 DD 7800 DFSTR 5300
Limited options in the short early slate, but McCann is on the better side of his split against Hutchinson who has some blow up potential in him.

First Basemen

Chris Davis - FD 3100 DK 4400 DD 8900 DFSTR 4200
The power is starting to come back around, and with it a speck of hope that this whole season won't be the most forgettable thing he's done (but it probably will). Davis has as much upside as any power hitter in the game, though the floor is low because he relies so much on the long ball. He face Kyle Gibson, a ground ball guy, but in a solid hitter's park. I'm willing to buy him at these prices especially considering Gibson doesn't have big time K stuff (Crush's biggest weakness).

James Loney - FD 2200 DK 3900 DD 6950 DFSTR 3000
He's coming very cheap in some spots (especially on FanDuel where he's a min-priced guy. Loney makes a nice cheap option today considering his contact rate and opponent. Allen Webster has really struggled at the major league level and there aren't many signs that he is about to figure it out. Dude walks more batters than he strikes out and just generally stinks. I like the Loney as a cheap option tonight.

Consider Lucas Duda

 

Early Slate
Mark Teixeira - FD 2800 DK 4000 DD 8900 DFSTR 5100
I don't love it, but the matchup is okay and this slate is rough trying to avoid the big arms.

 

Second Basemen

Aaron Hill - FD 2200 DK 3300 DD 7400 DFSTR 3000
Been somewhat of a tough go of it for the guy this season. Some of it is Babip related as his .253 number against lefties this season is below his career averages and has driven down his numbers across the board. He is coming so cheap against Matzek though, in a hitter's park, at a weak position that I don't mind playing him as the downside is mitigated by the price.

DJ LeMahieu - FD 2200 DK 3000 DD 6550 DFSTR 3200
I'm inclined to just go cheap here in the late slate because most of the higher-productivity options have tough matchups or bad ballparks that I'd just assume avoid. Lem isn't good, but the Rockies have a fine matchup against Nuno in a hitter's park.

Strongly consider Anthony Rendon

 

Early Slate
Brandon Phillips - FD 2600 DK 3600 DD 7350 DFSTR 5200
Hate this slate. Having to pick him here is just one of the reasons.

 

Shortstops

Josh Rutledge - FD 2200 DK 2800 DD 6100 DFSTR 3000
Hasn't seen many at bats this season, but Rutledge has made the most of them against lefties. He's OPS'ing over .950 thanks to an inflated Babip. So he isn't the next Troy Tulowitzki, but he can hit lefties a bit. And that's enough for me today considering the matchup against Nuno and the park. His price allows me to spend in other places like pitcher and outfield, where I want to get some more money in.

Elvis Andrus - FD 2400 DK 3500 DD 7450 DFSTR 4000
I prefer playing him against lefties, but I'll also get him in there against righties that lack big time power stuff. Hitting second in the order, ahead of Beltre and Rios has its advantages and just a volume consideration is more than you can ask for with some shortstops.

 

Early Slate
Jhonny Peralta - FD 2900 DK 3900 DD 8900 DFSTR 5600
I'll probably pay for Peralta here as he's in a nice spot against the lefty Doubront. Peralta is putting up great numbers for a shortstop in this split. His .850 OPS is about as good as it gets at the position and Doubront can really get in trouble early.

 

Third Basemen

Adrian Beltre - FD 3200 DK 4400 DD 9700 DFSTR 6200
I much prefer him against lefties, but I'll take almost anyone against Scott Feldman. And Beltre's had his success on this side of the split. He has a .370 wOBA against righties on the season and is difficult to strikeout. Feldman is the poster boy for mediocre and the park favors power for righties.

Nolan Arenado - FD 3700 DK 4500 DD 10050 DFSTR 6800
I'm all over some of these Rockies righties tonight. Arenado is one of the perfect fits. He's tuned up lefty pitching for his career and this season's been no different. His OPS in that platoon is close to a thousand and his .419 wOBA against southpaws is among the best in the league.

 

Early Slate
Puke. Todd Frazier against Worley could work. Or you could just sit this one out.

 

Outfielders

Mark Trumbo - FD 2900 DK 4200 DD 8050 DFSTR 3300
He's always hit lefties well and his prices remain low thanks to some run bad mostly from his subpar work against righties. Because against lefties even this season he's got an OPS in the mid .800's with a 130 wRC+. I'll take him and some of his DBack brethren in Chase Field against the lefty Matzek.

Yasiel Puig - FD 2800 DK 4400 DD 10900 DFSTR 3300
Price is reaching new lows. I can't imagine it dips down much more than this as the talent is just too prevalent to allow him to enter any kind of punt price area. The matchup against Kennedy isn't ideal, but there are price points that dictate a play almost regardless of opposition. On FanDuel especially, this is one of those times.

Alex Gordon - FD 3300 DK 4700 DD 9150 DFSTR 8300
Bauer can strike batters out. But he also walks his fair share as well and sports an xFIP in the low fours. Not a perfect option on the day, but OF is a bit weaker in the late slate and I think you need to overpay some at least for the third option if you choose to save in some other places.

Consider Jayson Werth and Curtis Granderson

 

Early Slate
Now we're talking. This is where a lot of the value lies in this slate. Some nice options.
Billy Hamilton - FD 3300 DK 4700 DD 8550 DFSTR 8300
Jay Bruce - FD 3200 DK 4100 DD 7800 DFSTR 3000
Vance Worley is just an average kind of dude taking the mound every five days. He doesn't have big strikeout potential and pitches to contact. That's the kind of profile I'm looking for when considering these Reds lefties. They provide value in different ways and both are in play today.

Matt Holliday - FD 3700 DK 4400 DD 10450 DFSTR 8400
I have no love for Felix Doubront and think that Holliday, with his 140 wRC+ against lefties on the year (to compliment a history of hitting them well) is one of the better plays in this early slate.

 

Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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