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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/20/20
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Pitchers
Shane Bieber FD - P 12000 DK - SP 10600
Opponent - PIT (Trevor Williams) Park - PIT
FD - 42.91 DK - 23.41
We have been gifted some excellent slates in terms of starting pitching and that continues tonight. With a price tag just $400 more than Kershaw on DraftKings, Shane Bieber is where I will be starting my builds. He continues to develop into an ace and is having an elite start to the season allowing just five earned runs(1.30 ERA/1.65 xFIP) over five starts, winning four of them. It doesn't stop there as he has struck out at least eight in every start and comes into tonight with an insane 43% K rate and 19.8% swinging-strike rate.
The matchup couldn't get much better either as he faces a Pirates team that has a 53 wRC+ and 25% K rate against right-handed pitching on the season. You might be better off taking the saving with Kershaw on FanDuel but on DraftKings Bieber is my top pitcher in all formats.
Alex Young FD - P 5800 DK - SP 6700
Opponent - OAK (Sean Manaea) Park - OAK
FD - 25.54 DK - 12.99
The system absolutely loved the double pay-up at pitcher on DK last night and I suspect it will again as the total cost is cheaper tonight. If that is the route you want to go, both Kershaw and Sonny Gray are terrific options but if you want more bats, I have a value play for you. Alex Young got his first start on Saturday limiting the red-hot Padres to four hits and one earned run and while he only went 4.1 innings on 63 pitches, he still put up 14.8 DK points, over 2x at these prices.
The D-backs are underdogs(+139) tonight but Oakland is a good pitcher's park and he faces an A's team that strikes out 29% of the time vs. left-handed pitching and 26% of the time overall. I suspect the pitch count will be up to about 75-80 and if he can tally some K's even a few earned runs against will still allow him to hit value, at least for cash games.
Catcher/First Base
Mitch Moreland FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 4800
Opponent - BAL (Asher Wojciechowski) Park - BAL
FD - 11.28 DK - 8.46
The Red Sox are in a plus spot tonight and currently sit second in implied runs on the main slate. While I won't get too invested in the Red Sox who have struggled offensively as a group, there are a few plays that stand out and Moreland is one of them. He has carried the offense this season and entered Wednesday night with an elite 3.26/.408.791 slash line with six home runs and 14 RBI. He and the Red Sox now get a plus matchup against Woj of the Orioles who hasn't been terrible but can most definitely be targeted against with his 4.34 ERA/4.65 xFIP and he has given up multiple home runs twice already. Moreland is in play in all formats.
Pedro Severino FD - C 2900 DK - C 4600
Opponent - BOS (Nathan Eovaldi) Park - BAL
FD - 7.55 DK - 5.78
After Moreland, I am not really a fan of the first base position once again but at catcher, we can turn to the other dugout in the same game. The Orioles have been a surprise team to start the year and mostly due to the offense which sits Top 10 in almost all categories. Severino, in his second season with the O's, has been a key piece with a .338/.400/.618 slash line with five home runs through 20 games. Their is obviously some regression coming but even looking at the advanced metrics, he has an elite .381 xwOBA. He is my top catcher on DraftKings and also in play on FanDuel under $3K.
Second Base
Tommy La Stella FD - 2B 2400 DK - 1B/2B 4100
Opponent - SF (Kevin Gausman) Park - SF
FD - 10.38 DK - 7.96
The Angels are currently letting me down as I write this but I am going right back to the well no matter the result on Wednesday. They are in another good spot against Kevin Gausman who is maybe getting a bit unlucky(4.21 ERA but 3.14 xFIP) but is giving up 43% hard contact and has really struggled against left-handed batters. That leads me back to La Stella who is hitting second in the lineup ahead of Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Opportunity and value price put him in the upper tier in terms of PTS/$ plays at any position.
Jake Cronenworth FD - 2B 2400 DK - 1B/2B 2500
Opponent - TEX (Kyle Gibson) Park - SD
FD - 8.13 DK - 6.32
Cronenworth is a player flying completely under the radar and had this been a normal year, he might not have even got the chance. He was added to the roster when they were expanded due to COVID-19 protocols and has made the most of it with a .321/.387/.607 slash line through 19 games(62 plate appearances) and is 5th in the league in xwOBA, an advanced stats put together by MLB Statcast. He also flies under the radar with a teammate who is pretty much the league MVP(stay tuned, Tatis is next) and at these prices, helps us roster said teammate or any other top tier player you want. In play in all formats.
Shortstop
Fernando Tatis Jr. FD - SS 4700 DK - SS 5100
Opponent - TEX (Kyle Gibson) Park - SD
FD - 12.97 DK - 9.91
If the MVP was handed out today, it would be hard not to straight hand it to Tatis Jr. who is more than making up for lost time after an injury derailed his rookie campaign. He went into Wednesday leading the league in average exit velocity(96.4 mph), home runs(11), and is Top 5 in wOBA(.448) and wRC+(187). If you can hit him, he is easily a Top 3 play overall with his best value coming on Draftkings where he was almost hitting $6k and has been trending down since(no idea why??).
David Fletcher FD - SS 3100 DK - SS 4100
Opponent - SF (Kevin Gausman) Park - SF
FD - 9.53 DK - 7.47
The only other player I would consider over Tatis as my top overall play would be Mike Trout but unfortunately building around him is tough with a price tag in the $6K range on DraftKings). I mentioned La Stella above and what I like most about the two is they hit 1-2 in the order ahead of Trout and Rendon and give us exposure to those big bats without the huge hit on our salary cap. This is a route I will be going in cash games tonight and then adding those big bats to complete the stack in GPP formats.
Third Base
Anthony Rendon FD - 3B 4000 DK - 3B 5200
Opponent - SF (Kevin Gausman) Park - SF
FD - 11.92 DK - 8.95
For the third straight position, I bring you an Angels player and while the park isn't the best for bats the matchup wins out. With the Fletcher and La Stella value at the top of the lineup, it makes it viable to get Trout or Rendon in your lineup and I lean Rendon in cash games with the savings. The underrated star got off to a slow start on his new team but has heated up in a big way with hits in eight straight going into Wednesday night with four multi-hit games, two doubles, and five home runs. Lock and load in all formats.
Rafael Devers FD - 3B 2800 DK - 3B 5400
Opponent - BAL (Asher Wojciechowski) Park - BAL
FD - 14.36 DK - 10.9
While you aren't likely playing Devers on DraftKings as the most expensive player at the position, he is an excellent value on ver on FanDuel in the sub $3K range. Overall, it has been a disappointing start to the season as he is hitting just .231 but things appear to be turning around as he comes into tonight with hits in six of his last seven games including six over the last days(two doubles and a home run). Ride the hot streak and take advantage of the mispricing on FanDuel while it lasts.
Outfield
Alex Verdugo FD - OF 2700 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - BAL (Asher Wojciechowski) Park - BAL
FD - 12.59 DK - 9.7
One more Red Sox bat I want to touch on here who will be a part of my core tonight is Alex Verdugo. He came over in the Mookie Betts deal and while he can't ever replace him in Boston, he ha been solid hitting .282 with a .367 wOBA and 131 wRC+ and is getting a lot more opportunity at the top of the lineup which is the key to his PTS/$ floor and ceiling tonight. If he is back up there, he is a core play in all formats.
Anthony Santander FD - OF 3400 DK - OF 4300
Opponent - BOS (Nathan Eovaldi) Park - BAL
FD - 10.1 DK - 7.75
It is shocking that Santander's price continues to sit in that next tier of pricing on both sites considering his scoring-hot start. He extended his league-leading hit streak to 14 games last night and now has hits in 18 of 22 games on the season, good for a .421 wOBA and 170 wRC+. He hits at the top of the order for a red-hot offense in a matchup against a pitcher in Eovaldi who has given up 15 earned runs over his last three starts. At these prices, he is in play in all formats on both sites.
