FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Christmas Day Wednesday, 12/25/19

The NBA has come to take over Christmas Day and makes an already great holiday all that much better. We have a full-day of games starting at noon Eastern with some solid matchups. There's injury question marks around the Lakers' guys which could be problematic, but plenty of other value to get started for cash games.

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Point Guard

Russell Westbrook FD - $9600 DK - $8900
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 54.82 DK - 57.92
There’s definitely some blowout risk in this game with the Rockets coming in as 10-point road favorites against the Warriors. But Golden State’s shown some fight in the short term even though they are undermanned. Westbrook’s been playing major minutes lately with the Rockets really tightening up their rotations. He’s run 40 minutes in three of the last four games (all wins) and averaging 32 points, eight rebounds and six assists in that stretch. When sharing the court with Harden you can’t except the assists to be all that high, but Russ is still piling it on fantasy-wise. Golden State runs a league-average pace and are a bottom-third defensive team. Westbrook, for his price, has one of the highest floors on the slate.

Kyle Lowry FD - $8000 DK - $8500
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 42.49 DK - 44.19
Speaking of big minutes and short rotations, the Raptors are in a similar boat though there’s is more out of necessity because of injuries. Lowry has been hovering around 40 minutes per game since returning from injury and over the last month is averaging 20 points, eight assists and six rebounds. But in the short term he’s also seen a usage spike with Pascal Siakam out and has taken 20+ shots in each of the last two games. This isn’t a great matchup against a very good Boston team, but Lowry’s safety comes primarily in the run. Toronto is just playing so shorthanded and they need every minute out of Lowry and VanVleet in the backcourt.

You have to love Jamal Murray (FD 7600 DK 7100) on DraftKings especially. The Nuggets draw the best matchup of the slate against the Pelicans who play a super fast pace and terrible defense. The only risk is that much of Murray’s value is wrapped up in scoring and that can lead to some volatility around his game-to-game performance.

Shooting Guard

James Harden FD - $11700 DK - $11600
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 64.82 DK - 67.78
Because of the injury uncertainty around the Lakers’ big two and with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George sharing the court again, pairing Harden and Westbrook in cash on this slate might just be the way to go. They get a great matchup and both guys just play tons of minutes. Harden is expensive of course and that will mean taking some hits elsewhere in the lineup, but from an upper-tier perspective you do get very high floors by playing these guys together in lineups. His assist and rebounding numbers are down a bit over the last month but the usage is as high as ever, averaging 26 field goal attempts and 14 trips to the line per game through the month of December. He also adds about two steals per game, which really adds up especially on FanDuel.

D'Angelo Russell FD - $8200 DK - $7400
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 41.93 DK - 43.91
Damion Lee FD - $4400 DK - $5400
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 25.39 DK - 26.23
Alec Burks FD - $5700 DK - $5600
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 34.09 DK - 34.25
Burks is a SF on FanDuel, but for ease of use I’m just piling him in here with the other Golden State guards (he’s a SG/SF on DK). With Glenn Robinson out of the lineup on Monday, Burks got the start and played 34 minutes finishing with 25 points and eight assists. He’d even been playing solid minutes off the bench with Robinson around so I’m not all that worried about him from a cash game perspective even if he slotted back in as the sixth man.

Meanwhile, Russell has come back and continues to pile on the usage, taking 23, 20 and 18 shots over the last three games and averaging 27 points and six assists in that stretch. I’m willing to be a little more bullish on his minutes in this game as well (assuming it stays close) because of the high profile nature of the holiday game and this being Golden State after all. He won’t draw a ton of defensive resistance either from the Harden/ Westbrook backcourt from an on-ball sense.

And finally, Lee is basically a punt-type play on a slate that might not have all that much cheap value. He seems locked into the starting role at least and gets up enough shots to not totally kill you on this price even if he played less than 30 minutes on Monday.

If you think this is the game Khris Middleton (FD 6500 DK 6500) creeps up into the mid-30’s minutes then he would make a good value play even against the Sixers.

Small Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11200 DK - $11300
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 62.81 DK - 65.55
Because of the uncertainty on Lebron and AD, plus a few middle tier cheaper guys at other positions, I think there’s a world in which you can actually play Westbrook, Harden and Giannis in lineups together on FanDuel. That isn’t the case on DraftKings where the pricing is tighter of course, but on FD it’s a reasonable build. What you are really counting on here is a close game against the Sixers in which Giannis presses towards 33-34 minutes. That doesn’t often happen with him simply because Milwaukee blows the doors off of so many teams, but when the game is close that seems to be the plan with Antetokounmpo. In 31 minutes per game this season, Giannis is averaging 31 points, 13 rebounds and 5.6 assists along with 2.5 steals+blocks. He’s just a complete and utter beast. Horford has given him defensive “fits” in the past in that he’s one of the few guys in the league who can speed bump the Greek Freak, but I’m counting on the minutes ticking up here to counteract some of that from a fantasy perspective.

OG Anunoby FD - $5900 DK - $5400
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 31.17 DK - 30.79
I suspected, with all of their injuries, that we would start seeing crazy minutes out of O.G. but that hadn’t really been the case until last game when he played 38 minutes in regulation (43 total) against the Pacers. That’s kind of where I thought he’d live without Siakam, though it hasn’t totally been the case. That being said, he is coming at a good middle-tier price on both sites and should see plenty of run against the wing-heavy Celtics. Foul trouble is a consistent issue for him (effecting the minutes also) and that does build in some risk. But it’s also what keeps his price in check. The per-minute rebounding numbers are up with Siakam and Gasol off the court and he’s seeing a few more shots as well.

Power Forward

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson FD - $4100 DK - $5300
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 24.8 DK - 24.47
Power forward is an issue on this slate so we might have to take some risks on the lower end of the salary spectrum. RHJ has seen the minutes tick up from 19, to 29 to 38 (OT) over the last three since Siakam went on the shelf. There’s some weirdness in those games though so I don’t think we can start penciling him into 30 minutes per game off the bench. But he contributes enough across the stat line and his size won’t be a total detriment against the Celtics so I think this is a good spot for him. Mostly, on FanDuel at least, we are needing to lock in some minutes on the cheap in order to fit the more expensive plays. Hollis-Jefferson offers that kind of opportunity.

Derrick Favors FD - $5700 DK - $5700
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 29.9 DK - 31.1
The Pelicans are steadily increasing Favors’ minutes since coming back from injury and he hit 30 last game against the Blazers. That’s a good sign and though I don’t think he starts pushing 33-34 anytime soon, his price hasn’t come up to truly reflect the increase in opportunity. He’s double-doubled in each of the last two games, even running into some foul trouble against Portland. He’ll draw a tough assignment against Jokic in this game and the fouls are still a rich, but at power forward on FanDuel he gives you solid stats in the middle tier.

I think you can consider Serge Ibaka (FD 7800 DK 7300) on both sites, though the price is starting to get up there. I definitely like him more on DraftKings with the PF/C eligibility.

Center

Willie Cauley-Stein FD - $4700 DK - $4200
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 29.32 DK - 27.31
Center is a problem spot on this slate, especially on FanDuel. But WCS looks like a decent option at his price points. He’s topped 27 minutes in three of the last four games and averaged 12 points and seven rebounds over that stretch. I don’t think Houston will completely play him off the court because of Capela and we could see good minutes again in this matchup. And again, this is a very weak position so getting out of it on the cheaper side isn’t the worst thing in the world.

Brook Lopez FD - $4900 DK - $5000
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 28.63 DK - 26.96
It doesn’t happen a ton, but in close games against teams with traditional centers Lopez will run 32-33 minutes and that should be the case against Embiid and Sixers on Christmas. Lopez, more than most other centers, relies more on his scoring (especially from three) to hit value. He’s drawn away from the basket because of how they use Giannis so the rebounding numbers aren’t robust. But he’s also coming pretty cheap on a night where the run should tick up some.

I love Clint Capela (FD 8700 DK 7500) on DraftKings.

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