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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 12/22/19
Hello there! A Lebron-less Lakers? The Clippers on the second half of a back to back? Value abounds, so let's make sense of it all.
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Point Guard
Kemba Walker FD - $7900 DK - $8200
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 43.74 DK - 45.49
Revenge games are kind of a silly concept, but I won't mind throwing it out here given that Kemba is just a straight up good play anyway. Charlotte has played slowly this season, but they're also the 23rd ranked defense in terms of defensive efficiency. Kemba wasn't fantastic in their first meeting this season, but the context here is totally different. With Smart ruled out and Heyward currently questionable, the offensive burden will be squarely on Kemba's shoulders. Charlotte is also on the second half of a back to back here. There is some serious blowout risk with the Celtics sitting at 13 point favorites, but on a small slate I don't know if that can full scare us off.
Jamal Murray FD - $6800 DK - $6800
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.19 DK - 37.93
I just think Jamal Murray is a great value right now. We played him at 2% ownership on DraftKings two nights ago and he rewarded us with 52 fantasy points in 36 minutes against the Timberwolves. Murray has been playing 35-36 minute rotations in close games recently, and while the Lakers are a tough match-up, Murray went for 22/5/5/1/2 in their last meeting. LeBron's likely absence should help keep this one close, and I love Murray's floor here.
Also considered: Rajon Rondo. Rondo has seen a lot of cash game ownership recently even with LeBron on the floor, and given the Lakers incredible lack of depth in terms of ball handlers it's hard to imagine where else these minutes go. With both he and Caruso playing terribly last game I can't call this a cash game lock, but you have to at least consider it.
Aaron Holiday if Jeremy Lamb is out again.
Shooting Guard
Lou Williams FD - $5100 DK - $6500
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 33.65 DK - 35.31
Lou Will is still wildly too cheap for the minutes he'll eventually round back into, and with the Clips being on the second half of a back to back here we're likely looking at Kawhi taking a day off. Williams was less than incredible the last time Kawhi took a game off, but sweet Lou put together 24 points and 13 assists the time before that. It's a solid match-up with the Thunder, but the real story here is the ridiculously low FanDuel price. I'm not sure he gets there on DraftKings.
Danny Green FD - $3800 DK - $4000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 21.23 DK - 21.12
Avery Bradley FD - $3700 DK - $3300
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 19.78 DK - 19.74
Now here's some juicy opportunity. With LeBron likely to miss his first game of the season, and Avery Bradley coming off of his minutes restriction, there should be plenty of minutes and opportunity to go around. Given that both of these guys are essentially the minimum salary and there should be a boon of minutes AND opportunity opened by LeBron, I'm just all over these plays in any format.
Small Forward
T.J. Warren FD - $5000 DK - $5000
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 27.55 DK - 27.61
Seems like we have value plays for miles on a 4 game slate, but I'm not complaining. This is a puzzling price for Warren, who's playing 29-32 minute rotations and providing his typical ~1 fantasy point per minute. It's a tough match-up with the Bucks, but again, the tightest spread on this slate is 7.5 points. Warren paid 30 fantasy points in his last meeting with the Bucks, and I see no reason why he should do the same especially considering that the Bucks are on a second half of a back to back.
Paul George FD - $9000 DK - $8500
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 44.38 DK - 46.47
With value oozing from every position today, you have to spend up somewhere, and George is a fantastic spot to do just that. While there is no official word of Kawhi's absence as of now, it's assumed that he'll have played the San Antonio game, he'll sit today, and then he'll play Christmas against the Lakers. If that's the case, George looks sort of automatic. In the last two games Kawhi missed George has averaged 23 shots from the field (as opposed to the 18 per game he's averaged this season). There is going to be legitimate bad blood in this game as well, with no love lost between George has his temporary team. He's also just cheap in general, and seems like a terrific play here.
Nic Batum earned 29 minutes in a start on Saturday, and if he gets the nod again here he's a nice way to get away from a tougher position cheaply.
Power Forward
Anthony Davis FD - $10600 DK - $10100
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 58.24 DK - 57.82
With LeBron likely sitting I don't see how you can fade Davis. The Lakers just don't have anyone who can put the ball in the hoop besides their two big stars, and while Denver actually has some bodies they can throw at Brow, it won't be enough to make up for the fact that Davis is probably 15% too cheap if LeBron isn't playing. Not much else to say here - take Davis as the free square and build your lineup around him.
Jayson Tatum FD - $7600 DK - $7400
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 41.61 DK - 42.1
Tatum is a pretty incredible match-up play going up against the hodge-podge that Charlotte is throwing out there right now. Neither Biyombo nor Zeller are fast enough to stick him on his inside/outside game, and Marvin Williams is too big a defensive liability to stay out there for Tatum's full rotations. Nic Batum started for Zeller last game, but he's undersized for this match-up. Tatum is still very affordable for his baseline production, and getting him against a Charlotte team that's allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards is looking pretty dreamy.
Center
Montrezl Harrell FD - $6300 DK - $6600
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 37.49 DK - 36.51
Center is the one position today that's pretty darned tough. I think Harrell is a solid but unspectacular play, who should benefit greatly from a few contextual pieces here. The first is obviously Kawhi's likely absence, but there is more. First, more time of possession is great for Lou Will is great for Harrell, since Harrell is his go-to pick and roll partner. Second, the Thunder have a legitimate center in Adams that the Clips will have to answer. I think Harrell represents a fine way to middle out this position, even if you're not really getting away with anything.
Brook Lopez FD - $5100 DK - $4900
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 29.51 DK - 27.75
Don't look now, but Lopez is tearing it up on a 30+ minute rotation. He's averaged almost exactly 40 fantasy points in his last two games, and going up against the twin towers of Turner and Sabonis likely means the Bucks will need his size here. It wouldn't shock me if he climbs to the top of the cash game ownership after being largely ignored in his last two contests.
