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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 11/3/19
Welcome to a great slate of Sunday NBA DFS! Whether you're here because you're psyched about the beginning of the season, or because you're chasing NFL losses, please know one thing: you're in the right place. There's plenty of value to be had on this slate, so let's get to it.
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Point Guard
Luka Doncic FD - $10000 DK - $9200
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 53.77 DK - 55.78
I doubted Luka a little bit coming into this season, but I have to say that I'm with LeBron on this one - Luka is a bad mfer. He became the youngest player to ever go 30/10/15 in a game, and it could have been even more if he hadn't been sent to the locker room to get stitches. He's loosely considered questionable in this one, but all signs are that he should be good to go. Luka is the rare case of a guy whose skills could truly be improving this year, which makes sense given how young he is. His bulk stats (points, rebounds, and assists) are all heading in the right direction, and his field goal percentage is going up as well. The price will almost surely be going up in the near future, particularly after this game against the Cavs and their league worst defensive efficiency. Buy now while the price is right.
Frank Ntilikina FD - $3800 DK - $3100
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 26.14 DK - 26.26
Of all the players I thought would improve during the world cup this summer, Frank the Tank was pretty low on the list. And alas, here we are. After playing devilish defense all summer long, the Knicks have entrusted him with a starting gig. And while he won't be an on-ball point guard with Rookie of the Year favorite RJ Barrett looming, he still does plenty across the board to justify a near minimum price at 35+ minutes a game. While you can't count on him for 3 steals a game, his defense stats should help him pay value on a night in, night out basis - and going up against a sloppy Kings team should help in that regard as well.
Also considered: De'Aaron Fox in a great spot against the Knicks.
Shooting Guard
James Harden FD - $11100 DK - $10600
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 61.71 DK - 64.88
I can't say I was in the camp that thought Harden's shots would increase with the arrival of Westbrook, but that's exactly what has happened so far this season. Last year's MVP runner up has had a slow start to his DFS year, but most of that is thanks to some terrible luck from deep. In spite of getting better looks than last year, Harden has shot just 20% from deep on an astonishing 14 three pointers per game, and when that regresses to the 35%-36% range he could well be a $12,000 player once again. Miami isn't an ideal match-up so far this season - they've played a top 7 defensive efficiency with a bottom 8 pace - but our lineup optimizer just sees this as a case of the price being too low on the existing opportunity and talent.
DeMar DeRozan FD - $7700 DK - $7400
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 39.24 DK - 39.57
Bryn Forbes FD - $4100 DK - $4300
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 21.99 DK - 23.45
Things get a little dicey after Harden at shooting guard today, and it certainly isn't clear that you can afford to pay up for both Harden and DeRozan. Still, if you are looking for a high floor, I'm a believer in these Spurs guys today. With the Spurs favored by a single point, this game should stay pretty close, and that should mean 35+ minutes for DDR and 27+ for Forbes. Pop likes nothing more than sticking it to these teams he seems to perceive are trying to win the easy way instead of developing talent, and it should be an all hands on deck situation for the Spurs wings.
Also considered: Buddy Hield, but it's been a rough go of things for him early on this season. Still, it's a nice match-up with the Knicks, and the talent is there for him to be a $7k player.
Small Forward
Danuel House FD - $5000 DK - $4500
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 22.48 DK - 23.23
House is delivering on increased minutes so far for the Rockets this season, and has netted himself even more minutes in the process. He's arguably the single biggest beneficiary from the chaos caused by Russ and Harden being on the floor at the same time, as he's upped his three point percentage to 46.7% on six attempts a game this year. That's no fluke, either. House was already a 42% shooter from deep, and he's just getting better looks this year. I love him against Miami here, who will be just about out of wing defenders after trying to account for Harden and Westbrook.
Marcus Morris FD - $5900 DK - $4900
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.27 DK - 31.02
Hello Marcus, my old friend. It's been a minute since I recommended Marcus Morris as a cash game play, but I think we're back in a world where that's not outrageous. In close games he will play anywhere between a 33-39 minute rotation, and given that Vegas sees the Knickerbockers as 1 point favorites at home, this game should be exactly that. The new-look Knicks seem determined to give their home fans (and would-be free agents) a different look this season, so I am actually willing to trust them to give the good players minutes. Small forward is pretty shallow, and I think Morris has enough floor to make your cash game cut.
Also considered: Cedi Osman.
Power Forward
Anthony Davis FD - $11600 DK - $10200
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 56.82 DK - 56.57
Davis is a great example of one particular way we can get value in the early season. His 11.6k price tag might seem reasonable when you see his season averages so far, but those averages aren't adjusted for the fact that he's only had to play his full compliment of minutes in two of those games. His normal rotation in LA is very similar to the big minutes he was playing in New Orleans (pre tank), and if he really plays 37 minutes a game he's worth considerably more than what you're paying here. In what should be a close game with the Spurs, look for Davis to keep pushing up those season long averages.
Bam Adebayo FD - $8300 DK - $7900
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 38.54 DK - 39.13
Bam! has been nothing short of great with Whiteside out of the picture, and he is likely another up and coming talent that is a little cheaper than the guy he is turning into. His improvements are the very most sustainable kind, as well, since he's almost exactly the same guy he was last year but with more minutes this year. With Capela looking lost to start the season and PJ Tucker's abilities likely needed elsewhere, this could be another monster performance from Bam, who is truly saving us from an otherwise tough position.
Also considered: LaMarcus Aldridge, though Father Time has me a little concerned there.
Some cheap and risky guys: Lyles, Holmes, and Bjelica. Any of them could pay big time on their prices, but their recent game logs should let you know they aren't without risk. Still, they should be on the short list of guys you should consider given how tough the position is tonight.
Center
At center tonight, we'll just give a big picture look since the pickings are pretty slim but there aren't any definitively great plays.
New York vs. Sacramento: Neither team has a guy who qualifies at the position on FanDuel who is worth considering.
Houston vs. Miami: Capela is in the dog house, and while Meyers Leonard has been great on a points per minute basis this season, he's also playing about 25 minute rotations.
LAL vs. San Antonio: Once again, no FanDuel-qualifying center plays reasonable or predictable minutes here.
Dallas vs. Cleveland: Dallas doesn't field the position for DFS purposes, but Tristan Thompson is one of the few guys you can consider today.
Utah vs. LAC: Gobert and Harrell are two of the three guys I'm considering today, but I'm not excited about either. They both sucked the other time these two teams faced off this season, and neither is exactly cheap. If I had to pick one, I'd go with Montrezl Harrell.
