Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 8/22/14

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Pitchers

Felix Hernandez - FD 11000 DK 12500 DD 21150 DFSTR 11300
Our projection system is a lot more bullish on the Red Sox than I am. I think the writing is on the wall – these guys are throwing in the towel this season. With a 20.8% strikeout rate (that makes them the 12th easiest team in the majors to strike out) and a pathetic .305 wOBA that’s 2nd worst in the AL, I think Felix goes deep and racks up a very nice number of Ks tonight. Joe Kelly also gives the Ms a nice chance for a win. Nice play all around.

Adam Wainwright - FD 9700 DK 9700 DD 19900 DFSTR 6300
The Phillies are like a worse version of the Red Sox – but Wainwright isn’t quite the pitcher Felix is. The Phillies have a worse wOBA (.296!) than the Sox, and strike out more as well. All systems are go for a very nice Wainwright performance. Kyle Kendrick is pretty horrendous in his own right, so Wainwright is also in position for a win.

Mat Latos - FD 7800 DK 8700 DD 15250 DFSTR 6500
There's some risk here of course, but he's a slight favorite against the Braves who rank 26th in the league against righty pitching. Atlanta strikes out more than 22% of the time and just generally struggles in this platoon split. Again, Great American Ballpark is a bit bandbox-y, but Latos has gone at least seven innings in three of his last four starts.

Mike Minor - FD 6800 DK 6900 DD 12500 DFSTR 4600
On the other side of the ball? mound? field? is Minor who finally started putting it together last game against Oakland. His xFIP is still one and a half runs lower than his ERA. He's striking out more than eight batters per nine and keeping the walks relatively low. This is more your upside GPP play considering the prices.

Also considered: Yovani Gallardo, Sonny Gray

 

Catchers

Miguel Montero - FD 2400 DK 3400 DD 8200 DFSTR 3000
The price has gotten stupid on Montero, especially when he's lining up against Odrisamer Despaigne. The guy has 37 Ks and 23 BBs in 60 IP (which in case you didn't know, is abysmal). Montero has been very solid against right handed pitching this year with a .343 wOBA against them, and really hasn't been that bad overall. His price is going to climb at some point - and while it's depressed, I'm a buyer.

Buster Posey - FD 3000 DK 4000 DD 8600 DFSTR 3000
Today's selection of catcher is as ugly as it gets after you get past Montero. I like Posey in the 2nd slot for the following reasons: his BABIP is .30 points below his career levels, Fister is a pitch to contact guy (just 94 total Ks and BBs in 122 IP this year), and while Fister is a solid pitcher, he's outperformed his peripherals. I think Posey has as good a shot as anyone to have a decent day.

The rest:
There's a poo-poo platter of cheap guys, if you can snag one who is actually playing. Pierzynski, Grandal, etc. If you want to make a run at some high upside, consider Devin Mesoraco. After that? Play at your own risk.

 

First Basemen

Mark Teixeira - FD 2800 DK 3900 DD 8850 DFSTR 3000
Seeing John Danks' name on the "Opposing Pitcher" line of our projection system reminds me of the first time I saw my wife enter a room. Everything moves in slow motion, and I have to pick my jaw up off the floor. He doesn't strike anyone out, and he walks a ton of people. And Teixeira isn't his old self, but he's still got plenty of pop in that bat, especially in a great hitters' park. He's my top play at 1b today for sure.

Justin Morneau - FD 3400 DK 4200 DD 9450 DFSTR 4600
I am not a believer in Henderson Alvarez and his sub-6 K/9 heading into Coors Field. Morneau's been a little banged up this year, but his overall line is still very solid, and he has PUNISHED right handed pitching to the tune of a .405 wOBA. Great play.

Adam Dunn - FD 2800 DK 4100 DD 8250 DFSTR 6200
Adam Dunn has struck out in 31% of his plate appearances this year, but dude can still put up some huge upside against a right handed pitcher. He's got a .361 wOBA against them this year, and as you're probably aware, he tends to be a feast or famine guy. I love the idea of playing Dunn against the right handed Greene in GPPs tonight.

Also considered: Kendrys Morales, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Reynolds

 

Second Basemen

Ian Kinsler - FD 3200 DK 4100 DD 8900 DFSTR 6200
Not Kinsler's best year, but that makes a buying opportunity for us. Kinlser does have a wOBA .47 points higher against left handed pitching over the course of his career, and Tommy Milone shouldn't scare you at all from picking Tigers today. He ain't scaring me.

Brian Dozier - FD 3600 DK 4100 DD 8850 DFSTR 4800
The Doze-man has let us down recently. No doubt about it. But he's like that hot ex-girlfriend of yours who used to text you after the bars closed in college. You KNOW you shouldn't respond. But those 20 "home runs" and 20 "stolen bases" are just so damned tempting. Especially when she crushes left handed pitching, and the lefty she's facing has 15 Ks and 10 BBs in 25 IP. Okay, the analogy fails toward the end there. Who cares? Play Dozier.

Jason Kipnis - FD 3500 DK 4000 DD 8700 DFSTR 3000
Kipnis' platoon splits this year are staggering - his wOBA against right handers is .100 points higher than his wOBA of lefties. Brad Peacock has been a train wreck this year, with 89 Ks and 55 BBs in 109 innings, he's like a right handed Franklin Morales (this is where you gasp in horror). Kipnis is also a credible speed threat, which increases his upside a bit.

Also considered: Brandon Phillips, Tommy La Stella

 

Shortstops

DO NOT SPEND ON SHORTSTOP TODAY! REPEAT: DO NOT SPEND ON SS TODAY!

Josh Rutledge - FD 2500 DK 2800 DD 6650 DFSTR 3000
Well, he's playing every day, and playing a pitch-to-contact guy in Coors Field. He's flashed plus power for the position in the past, and the price is right. Not a safe play by any stretch, but if he's our there, I think he makes for an intriguing option.

Didi Gregorius - FD 2300 DK 3200 DD 5700 DFSTR 3000
Jeez, Shortstop is an eyesore today. Gregorius is basically on this list because he's a super cheap shortstop with a little bit of pop in a favorable platoon match-up against a bad pitcher. He's league average against righties, guys!! Guys?

Elvis Andrus - FD 2500 DK 3700 DD 7450 DFSTR 3000
Unsexy Andrus (tm) keeps showing up at the top of our projection system as a safe but unspectacular play. He's still that for me. Not a whole lot else to say, but didn't want to bury him in the "also considered category" in case you are looking for a pretty safe double up play.

 

Third Basemen

Aramis Ramirez - FD 3100 DK 4000 DD 8300 DFSTR 4100
Ramirez has been in full beast mode against left handed pitching this year - posting a .441 wOBA with plenty of power supporting that number. Jeff Locke is back to his old routine of putting up a decent ERA without the peripherals to back it up, and I think the Brew Crew help send him crashing back down to Earth.

Adrian Beltre - FD 3200 DK 4600 DD 9600 DFSTR 6500
Weird day for 3rd basemen - Beltre is one of two guys I'm going to recommend against his platoon split. The thing with Beltre? He's just awesome. His .374 wOBA against right handed pitching is the envy of most left handers, so I'm not going to get spooked just because it isn't a perfect spot. He kills it in Texas (a .420 wOBA there overall), and I think he'll take advantage of this match-up against the young Ventura.

David Wright - FD 2800 DK 3400 DD 8100 DFSTR 3000
Wright strikes me as a far more speculative play. He's been awful against right handers this year. It's sort of hard to recite in-season stats to recommend the above guys and then ignore them when talking about Wright. I get it. He's here strictly for his price and the skills he's shown in the past. Like Beltre, he actually has had a lot of success against right handers in the past. I'll play him in leagues where I want to save on 3B, and I'm willing to take a shot on batting-practice Dan Haren showing up.

Also considered: Josh Donaldson, Todd Frazier, Kyle Seager

 

Outfielders

Alex Gordon - FD 3500 DK 5000 DD 9250 DFSTR 10800
He’s been tearing it up recently, flexing home run power, and he’s got a terrific match up. The right handed Colby Lewis has only managed 33.3% ground balls this year, and leaving balls in the air in Texas is a recipe for disaster. The Royals will build upon Lewis’ lost season, and Gordon will be right at the center of it.

Jose Bautista - FD 4200 DK 4900 DD 11400 DFSTR 6200
Oh, OH! Hello, Sr. Bautista! You say you're facing a lefty? And you've got a .653 SLG against them this year? Sure, come on in. Here, take a seat. Make yourself at home. I'm going to go slip into something more comfortable, and I'll be back soon.

Shin-Soo Choo - FD 2700 DK 3700 DD 8850 DFSTR 3200
Our projection system still believes in Choo, and he's been leading off atop a terrific lineup. I can picture him getting on base a couple of times and perhaps scoring a run or two, which would be more than enough to justify his Fanduel price.

Marcell Ozuna - FD 2900 DK 4200 DD 7650 DFSTR 9200
Giancarlo Stanton - FD 5100 DK 5700 DD 12650 DFSTR 8200
These guys are both the same, in my mind. You know the story with Stanton - monstrous power, crushes lefty, incredible park to hit in with Coors Field. Ozuna is an interesting guy in his own right, though. In the last 6 games on FanDuel he's average 6 Fantasy Points per game. He won't do that for the rest of the season, but even if he brings his career .354 wOBA to bear against the desperately terrible Morales, you'll have a great play.

Ryan Braun - FD 3700 DK 4700 DD 10600 DFSTR 3500
Read Aramis Ramirez's write up. Same story for Braun. Off year for sure, but he's not priced like the superstar he is. Great case for stacking the Brew Crew's righties today.

Yasiel Puig - FD 3100 DK 4500 DD 11600 DFSTR 4900
FanDuel is just dangling Puig in front of us, beckoning us to take Puig. The price as slipped, and Puig has shown that he isn't quite ready to inherit the role of resident lefty crusher for all of the National League, but for these prices you literally can not beat the upside.

Also considered: Coco Crisp, Angel Pagan, Bryce Harper, Khris Davis, Wil Myers, Matt Kemp

 

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