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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 8/31/19
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Pitchers
Stephen Strasburg FD - P 11200 DK - SP 11200
Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - WSH
FD - 41.73 DK - 19.92
The clear number one today, and it's not particularly close. Not only is he the best pitcher on the slate, as we'll get to in a second, but he arguably has the best match-up as well. The thing he brings more than any other player on this slate is the strikeout upside, as his 10.58 K/9 is almost two better than Lucchesi and three better than Keuchel. Kershaw is a comparable pitcher, but he's just so expensive relative to his lower K rate that it isn't worth it. As for the Marlins, they have the second worst wOBA in the Majors against right handed pitching while striking out at the 6th highest rate. Fade Strasburg at your own peril.
Joey Lucchesi FD - P 7800 DK - SP 9100
Opponent - SF (Logan Webb) Park - SF
FD - 30.09 DK - 15.7
It's been an up and down ride for Lucchesi and his fantasy owners this season. He's going deeper into games than he was last year, but he's shed almost 1.5 K/9 off of his excellent age 25 season. Still, 8.61 K/9 and 3.00 BB/9 isn't an awful package at these prices, and when you start comparing him to the other options on the slate, it looks even better. The Giants are the fourth worst team in the league against left handed pitching this season, and it's only getting worse as they give more young players a shot. It's a fantastic match-up in a fantastic park, and that's enough that right now our system is picking out Lucchesi as an interesting option in all formats.
Dallas Keuchel FD - P 8400 DK - SP 9600
Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - ATL
FD - 29.04 DK - 14.67
Yep, tonight's pitcher two options come down to a couple of cheap left handers. Keuchel's much anticipated signing has actually paid off for the Braves so far, and while he's not at Cy Young levels, he's still pretty effective. His 60.7% ground ball rate would be the best in the Majors if he had thrown enough innings to qualify at the position, and he's added nearly a K per 9 by switching to the National League. He's also averaging slightly more than 6 innings per start, and his ground-ball heavy profile has always yielded a fairly high floor. He's never going to flex the ceiling that we're accustomed to for true aces these days, but you're also not paying ace level prices. I think he's a fine cash game play.
A note on Clayton Kershaw: By far the best pitcher on the slate, but also by far the most expensive. Right now our projection system isn't seeing a lot of value here.
If you want some upside, I'm totally comfortable running Robbie Ray in a bad match-up with the Dodgers.
Catcher/First Base
Buster Posey FD - C 2300 DK - C 3100
Opponent - SD (Joey Lucchesi) Park - SF
FD - 9.62 DK - 7.43
By now you know that we hate running catchers, but if you absolutely must, Posey represents a way to get away from a terrible position cheaply. He's a pale shade of the perennial all-star we knew in ages past, but I have to believe that a guy with a career .910 OPS against lefties can still do a little something at a near-minimum price. We like Lucchesi for cash, but he's far from invincible, and Posey is the type of guy that could give you some floor without even damaging Lucchesi too much.
Matt Adams FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 4300
Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - WSH
FD - 9.86 DK - 7.44
Adams has been pretty much the definition of a boom or bust play this season, with his terrible approaching yielding a sub .300 OBP over 295 plate appearances. Even with a brutal strikeout rate, his bell-tower power has him as a 40 hr per 600 PA guy, and that kind of power at these prices is a great recipe for big tournament success. Pablo Lopez is no slouch, but Adams has been .080 OPS points better against righties this season, and if he's batting toward the heart of the order I think he's playable regardless of the format.
Ryan O'Hearn FD - 1B 2600 DK - 1B 3300
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - KC
FD - 8.75 DK - 6.61
O'Hearn is sort of a poor man's Matt Adams. While he hasn't lived up to the future star profile that many people were dreaming on last season, he's at least bounced back considerably from the dumpster fire we saw earlier this year. He's 7/21 with 5 BB and 3 HR in his last 5 games, and he's still priced like the sub .600 OPS guy he showed us for most of the year. While he might never live up to the .950 OPS monster he flashed in 2018, he should certainly be worth prices like these against a below league average pitcher like Bundy.
Second Base
Ozzie Albies FD - 2B 3200 DK - 2B 4300
Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - ATL
FD - 12.27 DK - 9.5
For a slate without a lot of top tier pitching, this slate sure doesn't have a lot of truly terrible pitchers either. Lopez might just qualify, though. With an xFIP north of 5, he's been utterly hittable this year. While the K:BB ratio isn't awful, the 1.60 HR/9 and 34.7% groundball rate means he's going to give up a lot of big innings. The young Albies has been excellent this year, even if he did sign a contract that could be one of the worst deals for any player in the league. I'm loving Albies as a part of a high floor Braves stack against Lopez.
Whit Merrifield FD - 2B 3400 DK - 2B/OF 4600
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - KC
FD - 10.39 DK - 8.13
Merrifield is a funny case. When he was a forty steal threat he was probably better at fantasy baseball than real life baseball, and now that he's toned down the steals he's probably better at real life baseball than fantasy. Still, he's a true talent 20/20/.300 guy, and that's a lot of value at a guy in the low $3,000s on FanDuel. We nodded to Bundy earlier, but his big weakness is similar to Lopez's: the home run ball. This man has allowed 1.69 HR/9 in his 584 Major League innings, and there are no signs of potential improvement. I love stacking the Royals as an off-beat stack today.
Shortstop
Xander Bogaerts FD - SS 4000 DK - SS 5400
Opponent - LAA (Dillon Peters) Park - LAA
FD - 11.35 DK - 8.67
I thought the 26 year old Bogaerts had already broken out, and then this year happened. This year he's hit the vaunted 30/100/100/.300 fantasy plateau, and it isn't even September yet. He's also significantly better against left handed pitching, which brings us to Dillon Peters. The young Angels lefty has improved off of last year's disastrous peripherals, but it's still not pretty, with him posting a 5.12 xFIP on the back of an outrageous 1.96 HR/9. Get ready for the Red Sox to be the most highly owned stacks on the slate.
Trevor Story FD - SS 4100 DK - SS 5600
Opponent - PIT (Joe Musgrove) Park - COL
FD - 11.51 DK - 8.74
It took us a while to get to the Coors game, but we made it. I've written about Story so many times by now that I could hit all the relevant notes in my sleep, but the short of it is that he's better against lefties, but he's still an overwhelming talent against just about anyone when he's hitting at home. You can only call Musgrove a disappointment this season, as he's followed up on a promising 3.92 xFIP with a 4.44 xFIP thanks to an inflated walk number. Look for the Rockies to body him today.
Third Base
Manny Machado FD - 3B 3300 DK - 3B/SS 3900
Opponent - SF (Logan Webb) Park - SF
FD - 10.57 DK - 8.04
It really speaks to the Padres' lack of firepower that we're only now getting to them in a match-up with Logan Webb, but here we are. It's not that Webb is terrible necessarily, but he wasn't much of a prospect coming into this year, and what success he's had can largely be attributed to pitching in such a friendly environment. It's always awkward recommending a guy like Machado, though, since he's been simply terrible in August. Still, I'll go ahead and trust the huge track record of success, and happily grab him at a significant discount against an inexperienced pitcher like Webb.
Josh Donaldson FD - 3B 3400 DK - 3B 4500
Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - ATL
FD - 12.28 DK - 9.18
I swear I've recommended Donaldson against righties way more this year than any other year, but he's kind of earned it. Formerly a guy you'd only play against lefties, Donaldson has been basically platoon neutral this year, and has even topped a .900 OPS against right handers, clubbing 25 of his 32 homers against them. Given that Lopez's primary weakness is allowing the long ball, this should be a great match-up for any kind of contest.
Also considered: Justin Turner, but it's a match-up with blowup potential against Robbie Ray.
Outfield
Mookie Betts FD - OF 3800 DK - OF 5200
Opponent - LAA (Dillon Peters) Park - LAA
FD - 12.8 DK - 9.74
Another straightforward addition to the Boston stack, which you might actually be able to afford given how cheap pitching sort of has to be today. Betts has actually taken a step back this year even has his fellow young Sox have sprang forward, but he's still plenty of hitter for these prices. Getting him at a discount just lets you pay up elsewhere more easily, and I won't believe that a player of his caliber peaked in his age 25 season. Grab Betts and the savings, and don't think twice about any perceived regression.
Mike Trout FD - OF 4700 DK - OF 5500
Opponent - BOS (Undecided) Park - LAA
FD - 13.97 DK - 10.43
The Red Sox haven't named a starter as of this writing, but I'm just throwing Trout out there as a name to consider given how cheap other positions (especially pitcher) look this year. His resume speaks for itself - he's by far the best hitter in the bigs, and possibly one of the best hitters ever. Unless the Red Sox re-sign prime Pedro Martinez, go ahead and roll with him against whatever riff raff they throw out there.
Hunter Renfroe FD - OF 2800 DK - OF 3800
Opponent - SF (Logan Webb) Park - SF
FD - 9.26 DK - 7.01
Renfroe is a lot like the Matt Adams/Ryan O'Hearn group in that he's flexed huge power with a less than great approach so far this year. I just find these guys with .500+ SLG and a sub .300 OBP hilarious, but maybe that's just me. Still, the Padres are entrusting him with the cleanup spot right now, and both our system and Vegas like them against Webb regardless of the park. It's just such an intense savings for a cleanup hitter with real power that it'll be tough for our system to get away from him.
Also considered: Shin-soo Choo, if the Mariners wind up rolling with a righty.
