Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for Draftstreet and FanDuel 1/31/14

Get ready for a big Friday in the NBA. Two of the worst defenses in the whole league are going, so get excited.

Quick reminder about these picks. At DFSR we employ a system that seeks to gain the most points-per-dollar. When we give a recommendation, it’s because we believe that player has the best chance to meet or exceed his price. On any given the night the highest dollar player can be expected to score the most points, but that doesn’t always make him the best play for the money. Want an in-depth look at how we set our lineups each night? Sign up for our email list and get a free eBook on the 6 steps every pro takes before setting his lineup, either by clicking that link or signing up through the sidebar. On to the picks.

Point Guard

Stephen Curry FD $9,900-
Under 10K for a superstar against a team that doesn't defend point guards very well? Yes please. Don't know what you need to hear here. Curry, when he gets it going, is paying this going away. The upside is huge if Utah can keep it close.

Jeff Teague FD $6,100 DS 9,658 or Shelvin Mack FD $4,500 DS 11,414-
Whoever starts tonight (Teague is a GTD) is nearly a must play. Both of these prices are well below the expectation against a defensively deficient Sixer team. Both have shown they can pay these numbers with relative ease. In Teague, I never like playing guys on their way back from injury, but tonight I think you can make the exception.

Mike Conley FD $7,700 DS 14,696
This will be a great game to watch and while I don't really like many options in terms of value, Conley does offer a quality opportunity. The T-Wolves are about 6-8% worse than league average in defending every component of the opposing PG's game. When Conley gets his scoring going, he can help you win a tournament at these prices, especially on FD.

Isaiah Thomas FD $8,000 DS 15,101-
Is such a high volume guy, gets tons of minutes and gets a matchup against Dallas who's below average against point guards.

 

 

Shooting Guard

Gerald Henderson FD $5,900 DS $11,284-
Not a popular play, but we've recommended him a few times. Unlike a lot of other shooting guards, Henderson doesn't have all of his value wrapped up in scoring. He's really increased his rebounding of late and has chipped in more assists than usual. Plus it's against the Lakers.

Monta Ellis FD $6,900 DS $12,773-
You're killing me Monta. I want to believe in you, but you're killing me! His last two games have been atrocious ship sinkers if you started him (I did) and it's difficult to keep picking him (I will, but not for much longer). His price has dropped because of performance and I think we could be looking at a buy low candidate. He's been turning the ball over at a nearly unsustainable rate and not assisting at the same rate from earlier in the season. I will be starting Ellis today in some GPPs hoping for the contrarian upside.

Gordon Hayward FD $7,700 DS $14,758-
Not sexy. Not sexy at all. But Golden State struggles in some key areas against opposing shooting guards, most notably: rebounds and assists. They are league average in SG scoring. Hayward could put up a nice line in a clash of diametrically opposed styles. The Warriors loose and fast. The Jazz, bad and slow. But that doesn't take away from Haywards value. He stands to pay this price.

Kyle Korver FD $5,100 DS $10,434-
How many Hawks can I pick? Will end up being about five. That's what happens when the Sixers' defensive multiplier outstrips just about everyone.

DraftStreet Value

Klay Thompson DS $10,054-
Still a great price here.

 

 

Small Forwards

This position is extremely difficult tonight. What else is new?

DeMarre Carroll FD $5,400 DS $11,666-
Carroll is such a solid play and will be in pretty much every one of my lineups. He is probably the safest and best value SF on the board today. Between his production and matchup he is a play in all formats. When he plays he can fill up the stat sheet and the Sixers of course stink.

Evan Turner FD $7,000 DS $14,575-
Which Evan Turner are you going to get? The one who's been playing like an All-Star the last couple of games? or the guy who made DFS players want to commit some kind of violent crime only a few weeks ago? The answer is probably somewhere in between. And that's where you need him to be for these prices. I like him a great deal more on FanDuel tonight because of the position specificity and the price in a bit of a better range. The Hawks really give it up to small forwards making Turner a strong value on the day.

 

Power Forward

Interesting position today. Not really in a good way.

Paul Millsap FD $8,800 DS $17,607-
You know the story. The Sixers. They stink. At defense. Especially inside. But really everywhere. I'm not sure Millsap can win you a tournament at these prices, but he does have some upside. He's a great cash play as he should pay close to 5x on this salary (FanDuel). I feel like you can put in Millsap in a double up format and really kind of forget about it.

Derrick Favors FD $6,800 DS $13,775-
The first of a bunch of rather iffy options. Favors isn't flashy but he can double/ double, especially against an uptempo team like the Warriors. Utah will have to stay in the game and Favors out of foul trouble, but this is a pretty nice price for him.

Josh McRoberts - FD $5,100 DS $9,862-
This pick is primarily because he's facing the Lakers. McBob has shown the ability to put up big stat lines. It doesn't happen all of the time, but he's gotten to 3x on this price before. If he's going to do it again, the Lakers are the opponent.

Thaddeus Young FD $7,100 DS $13,372-
Remember when Thaddeus Young was the second coming? Then remember when he sucked real bad? Well, he's leveled off somewhere in the middle of those two extremes and his price is about where you want it to feel comfortable. He's more of a cash game play to me because I don't think he has crazy upside. But he's been fairly consistent and he gets it done across the stat line which limits his floor.

Pau Gasol FD $9,100 DS $18,278 and/or Jordan Hill FD $4,500 DS $9,257-
They are this low down the list because of some question marks. Gasol is nursing an injury but shold play. If he plays, his matchup against the Bobcats is a good one. Charlotte is about league average defending opposing big men. Now, if Gasol sits, Hill makes a must play as I think he'll start in the absence. Even if Gasol does play, Hill got big minutes last game and could make for a cheap option. Monitor this situation.

FanDuel Value

Gustavo Ayon - FD $3,900-
Great punt option as a starter.

DraftStreet Value

David Lee FD $14,353-
Still underpriced here. Still a great play.

 

Center

Al Jefferson FD $9,300 DS $19,308-
Al Jeff's been doing it all for the Bobcats lately. His last two games he's averaged 34/12 with a couple of blocks. Tonight he plays the Lakers who are already bad against opposing centers and might be without Gasol. This all makes for Jefferson as the top center option today in terms of safety. Amazingly, there's even some upside built in to this price.

Spencer Hawes FD $7,000 DS $13,338-
There's a good chance you either love or loathe Hawes depending on what nights you've caught him. Because he's had some off nights for sure. But by and large Hawes gets the job done. He makes a bit of a safer player than Vuce for around the same price and he faces a Hawks team that's been getting shredded by opposing centers.

Nikola Vucevic FD $6,700 DS $14,800-
Came back from a prolonged absence because of a bump on his head and showed no signs of any wear at all. He went for 16/10 in only twenty minutes against the Raptors. Supposedly there aren't any PT issues with him even though he only played twenty minutes in his first game back. He still seems a little risky coming back from injury, but he can post huge stats. Plus the Bucks suck.