FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Playoff Picks - Round Friday Preview

The Sixers dominated the Raptors on Thursday to take a 2-1 series lead. On Friday, we get two more series in which the home team, having already stolen a game, will get a chance to take control of the best of seven.

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Bucks (1.5) vs. Celtics (-1.5)

Vegas Projected Score: Boston - 111 Milwaukee - 109
Over/Under: 220
Series: 1-1

With two games under our belt in this series, we have two 20+ point blowouts. It looks like the Bucks will cruise to a sweep - wait a second, the Celtics and Bucks each have a 20+ point blowout under their belts? Well this is getting complicated, isn't it? On a high level blowouts tell us very little about what each team plans to do, but there actually are a few takeaways we can draw from this one, I think.

Boston Value

The Horford/Irving show was put on hold for at least game two, but unfortunately this game really didn't teach us too much about how the Celtics will continue to adjust to Milwaukee's speed and length. It didn't teach us nothing, though, so let's have a look. Hey, if Vegas thinks this is going to be a 2 point game they should play a close one at some point, right. Right?!

Marcus Morris FD - $5900 DK - $4600
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 28.03 DK - 29.08
Our very own James Davis famously called that the Celtics would start running Morris for extended minutes, and that certainly still seems to be the plan going forward here. Morris actually led the Celtics in fantasy points in game two, even it was a rather modest 29 fantasy point contribution. Still, that's plenty on his current prices at a truly dismal position, and it stands to reason that the Celtics will continue to rely upon him as a long and athletic body given that that's been their plan in the last three meetings between these teams.
Jaylen Brown FD - $5300 DK - $5200
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 29.47 DK - 29.56
Brown was the one piece that the Celtics simply couldn't get away from in game two, even as Stevens tried to shuffle the other pieces around to give the Celtics more life. Like Morris, Brown brings much needed length to the wing position. He can credibly switch onto Giannis, and he's really the Celtics' only answer for Middleton as well. He's now led the Celtics in minutes in both games of this series so far, and while he isn't going to be a volume shooter in this series he contributes enough across the board that he's a totally playable fantasy option at another thin position.
Al Horford FD - $7000 DK - $7000
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 38.84 DK - 38.53
Horford was less effective in basically every facet of the game in the second contest of this series, going from 0 to 5 turnovers while shedding all of the defensive stats he tantalized us with during game one. Still, he was plenty effective on the offensive end (6-10 from the field) and the glass (8 boards), and given that he's also in the pretty elite "can switch onto Giannis" group I think his normal rotation is something like 35 minutes if these two teams can manage to play a close game.

Milwaukee Value

While we didn't learn a whole lot about the Celtics, I think we actually did learn quite a bit about what the Bucks plan to do when they're not getting completely destroyed. As we predicted, Mirotic entered the starting lineup for game two and greatly altered the minutes on the Bucks' end. Let's take a look at how that impacts the fantasy value we have here.
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11300 DK - $10200
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 60.98 DK - 62.78
Khris Middleton FD - $7500 DK - $6800
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 35.96 DK - 37.58
It sure looks like the only two "safe" Bucks are going to be Middleton and Giannis, but can I criticize his Holiness Coach Bud for a quick second? Listen, we've been as big a believer as you can possibly be on what he would do for the Bucks this season, and it's all played out magically. But can we agree on just playing our stars high 30s/low 40s minutes like every other sane team in the league? Do we really need 50-55 combined minutes out of Pat Connaughton and George Hill in the playoffs? I actually think there's plenty of upside to come from these two, and I'll go on record right now as being completely confused if the plan for close games going forward is less than 35 minutes per game for either. That should make them something of a value here, so I'm still a buyer.
Nikola Mirotic FD - $4400 DK - $3900
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 25.16 DK - 25.97
Mirotic drew the start in game two and only played 25 minutes, though there were plenty of good reasons for that. The Bucks blew the Celtics out, for one. Mirotic wound up in foul trouble as well. But he also sort of sucked offensively, right? 1-5 from 3, and just 9 points total across those 25 minutes. Still, Mirotic contributed enough on the boards (9 rebounds) and defensively (4 total defensive stats) that he more than paid his paltry prices. I think he'll play 30+ minutes if he continues to start, and that we're still in a buyer's market for a guy who's getting increased opportunity in a time where basically nobody else is.
The fallers I'm selling my Lopez and Bledsoe stock for now. Lopez should theoretically be able to stay on the court against Horford, but he's been terrible so far and I don't think you need to lock him down for cash games. As for Bledsoe, it sure looks like Coach Bud seems him as something like interchangeable with George Hill. Bledsoe is a more dynamic player overall, but Hill is the much better three point shooter, and that seems like the bigger need for the Bucks in this series. Spacing is incredibly important against a great defense like the Celtics, and they have to respect Hill and his multiple recent seasons of 40%+ shooting from deep. Heck, I might be talking myself into Hill as an interesting tournament play.
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Nuggets (4) vs. Trail Blazers (-4)

Vegas Projected Score: Portland - 109.75 Denver - 105.75
Over/Under: 215.5
Series: 1-1

Portland tied the series up in Game 2, winning 97-90 on the road in Denver in a game that got close near the end but honestly really felt all that much in doubt.

I mentioned in the last write up that Nikola Jokic’s minutes could end up being a problem for Denver if fatigue was going to be an issue. He played 43 in Game 7 against the Spurs on Saturday. Then tuned it around two days later and ran 41 in Game 1 of this series. It was clear he was getting gassed late in both games even though Denver won both.

It sure seemed like Portland knew this and made it a point early and often to hunt down Jokic and make him work hard on the defensive end. Here are the four of the first five Portland possessions of the game.

#1 - CJ rolls around Kanter/ Jokic and ultimately for a total clear out:


#2 - Literally the same exact action as the first possession



# 3 - Off an inbound, Denver switches assignments, but that’s fine, now Harkless can just take Jokic off the dribble.


# 4 (Possession 5) Same exact action as #1 and #2.


You get the point. This went on all game long in various forms. Later it was more Kanter/ Collins coming up for high screens to get Jokic moving around the perimeter. There are literally too many examples to give.

Jokic still played 37 minutes, putting up a fantasy relevant 16 points, 14 rebounds and seven assists including some highlight reel passes. But there’s a real chance the Blazers are going to continue working overtime to wear him down. They again have a quick turnaround. This will be Denver’s fourth game in seven days. No rest for the weary here.

Portland got key scoring contributions from guys other than their two guards. Rodney Hood, Al-Farouq Aminu and Zach Collins were all double-digit in scoring.

Denver Value

Paul Millsap FD - $6100 DK - $5600
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 29.17 DK - 28.35
Millsap struggled at times in this game, though he finished with a very good fantasy line of 14 points and 11 rebounds. He missed some point-blank shots and had some mistakes but you love the final output in terms of DFS. I think we continue to see him as a chalk play, especially on FanDuel.

Gary Harris FD - $4900 DK - $4900
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 29.68 DK - 29.94
Harris played 40 minutes in Game 2, staying on the court for long stretches because he was tasked with guarding CJ McCollum. Again, Harris's defense is what wins the day for fantasy purposes because it allows him so much court time. He struggled shooting going 3-12 and 0-5 from three. But I'm happy to turn back to him for cash games at these price points.

Denver has some injury issues that could affect some DFS value for Friday. Jamal Murray and Torrey Craig were both playing injured at the end of Game 2, though I suppose it's worth noting that they were both at least playing. Murray had a leg issue and Craig was playing with a broken nose. We'll have to wait on their statuses going forward.

Portland Value

Rodney Hood FD - $3500 DK - $3900
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 21.16 DK - 21.36
Mo Harkless sprained his ankle in Game 2 and never returned for Portland. His status is unclear going into Game 3, but if he was out then we could see a lot of Rodney Hood. Heck, we could see a lot of Hood regardless. He’s been excellent in this series and was particularly effective spelling Harkless. Hood went for 15 points and three rebounds in 27 minutes, knocking down a pair of clutch threes and even getting to the line. He seems almost for sure next up in line to draw the start if Harkless can’t go.

Enes Kanter FD - $7400 DK - $6300
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 34.37 DK - 36.56
As I mentioned above, the Blazers wanted to use Kanter as much as possible to establish a post game and work Jokic. The former, for a second series in a row, isn’t a liability on defense like he’s been in the past and this matchup doesn’t have him completely exposed. He should continue to see solid usage and he’s been getting on the boards as well averaging eight rebounds a game through the first two.