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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA picks for 3/31/18
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Early slate
So the early slate today probably has a little bit more going on than the main slate, to be honest. It's a shame that we miss the Hawks/Bucks game, since it looks like Giannis is going to miss it. This should keep the game somewhat competitive, and it should make a lot of Bucks guys fantastic plays. Tony Snell is missing this one as well, so you get even more minutes to spread around. Alas, that game isn't on any slate at this moment, so we'll have to make due elsewhere.
Dallas Mavericks at the Oklahoma City Thunder
OKC is favored by 12 in a game with a 222 total.
With Doncic ruled out, you sort of get a blessing and a curse here. On one hand, it obviously opens up a ton of value on the Mavs. On the other hand, it dramatically increases the blowout risk here. Still, on a two game slate I don't think we can worry all that much about blowouts.
On the Dallas side, things are a little bit tricky here. When Doncic missed the Cleveland game on March 16th it was Tim Hardaway Jr. that benefited the most. With THJ out for the rest of the season, things get quite a bit murkier. You'd have to think that Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber are in line for significant boosts here, and both should be automatic cash game plays even in a tough match-up with OKC. Dirk also played a bunch of minutes in that game, but who knows if that will be the plan here once again. I also like Justin Jackson quite a bit here.
Paul George FD - $10200 DK - $9600
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 50.78 DK - 51.79
Russell Westbrook FD - $11600 DK - $10700
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 57.44 DK - 59.92
It's going to be tough to avoid paying up for both Westbrook and PG today. With the bevvy of superstars missing today, you get both a lot of super cheap value options and very few ways to get paid off for it. I think you just take Westy and PG for the raw points and call it a day. If by some miracle the game stays close you can also throw Steven Adams and Jerami Grant into the playable category.
Los Angeles Lakers at the New Orleans Pelicans
There is no line on this game at this point.
Welp, LeBron has been ruled out for the rest of the year, which means we get at least a couple of games with the rest of the Lakers looking too cheap.
Lance Stephenson FD - $4900 DK - $4500
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.14 DK - 31.22
Kyle Kuzma FD - $6400 DK - $6100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 35.63 DK - 37.05
Stephenson is arguably the most obvious play on the slate, as he should play 30 minutes with the increased usage that shows up when LeBron is missing. As for Kuzma, he's another easy one, particularly when you look at the power forward position. His usage and rebounds go up with LeBron out of the mix, and he should do well against a poor Pelicans interior. Javale McGee and Rajon Rondo are also nearly musts when it comes to cash games.
On the Pelicans side, things aren't looking all that great with Davis likely playing here. Darius Miller has been ruled out for the season, but that will matter more in the games when Davis sits. The only guy our system is projecting for 5x points per dollar on FanDuel is Elfrid Payton, who should have his way with a bad Lakers backcourt in a fast paced and sloppy game.
All in all, this early slate looks pretty fantastic.
Late slate
I won't lie, most of the fun to be had today looks like it's happening on the two game early slate. Still, you don't pay the big bucks to give up, so let's go through this.
Sacramento Kings at the San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is favored by 9.5 in a game with a 227 total.
With the Spurs being heavily favored and a generally bad DFS match-up, I can't say I'm over the moon for this game. But that's going to be a recurring theme today, with at least two other games with huge spreads (WAS-DEN and CHA-GSW) and one game with generally few good DFS plays (MEM-LAC). Let's pull out a few highlights though.
Marvin Bagley FD - $7400 DK - $6700
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 36.9 DK - 36.69
Bagley drew the start for Bjelica on Houston, and with Giles out he still only played 26 minutes. He did manage a 20 and 12 in that limited time, though, and the price is still not outrageous. With the general lack of value on this slate it's hard to imagine he's not very highly owned here.
Bryn Forbes FD - $4200 DK - $4300
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 21.3 DK - 22.49
The Spurs side arguably looks even worse than the Kings side, which is surprising given that they have a significantly better match-up. I still wouldn't mind playing high floor guys like LaMarcus Aldridge, but if we're looking strictly for value it looks like Forbes is our best bet. Forbes is cheap, can touch 35 minutes in good game scripts, and he's cheap. He is very scoring dependent, but it's not outrageous to imagine that he can pay these prices on his scoring alone given his production recently. And his price is low. Sorry, this slate is rough.
Washington Wizards at the Denver Nuggets
There is no line on this game at this time.
This game could go in so many different directions, but for our purposes, I guess we have to assume it stays close? And I mean, it probably won't stay close. The Wizards have been one of the ugliest teams in basketball since the All-Star break, and the Nuggets are looking like a well oiled machine.
If you have any insider information about what the Wizards' plan is, please hop in our members only chatroom and let Doug know when he's breaking things down today. Bobby Portis is the perfect microcosm of all things Wiz at the moment, as he was highly owned in DFS against Phoenix and played 22 minutes for no particular reason, and then was barely owned and played 39 minutes against the Jazz. What the actual heck?
Bradley Beal FD - $9600 DK - $8700
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 52.61 DK - 53.66
The one constant for the Wiz right now, and a reasonable payoff for the inevitable punts we'll get this time of year. Beal is a hair cheaper than he should be, and he's still playing 38 minute rotations when the game stays close. I know, this one could very well not stay that close. If it does, though, it will be squarely due to Beal going off.
Swinging over to the Nuggets, are we sure we're getting much more safety here? The OKC game saw guys who had been playing steady minutes in Millsap and Barton randomly play ~25 minutes and screw over a lot of DFS owners. Nikola Jokic should destroy Washington's interior here, but he's also the first guy to lose minutes in a blowout. Proceed with caution.
Charlotte Hornets at the Golden State Warriors
Golden State is favored by 12 in a game with a 229.5 total.
Hey now, it's another likely blowout! I'm less convinced of this blowout than any of the others on this slate, though, mostly because Charlotte still has a great incentive to play this out. They are just 2 games back of the banged up Heat, and they've been doing their best to stay competitive. The problem, of course, is that they don't seem to have a great grasp on what makes them the most competitive team at the moment. We gave Kemba Walker a full set of minutes, and our system still sort of hates him even before you account for the blowout. Jeremy Lamb randomly played just 20 minutes last game in spite of Batum being inactive once again, and honestly I'm kind of just at a loss. I guess I'd be okay with cheap options with reasonable floors like Miles Bridges and Dwayne Bacon, but the shine is very much off those two if Batum is definitely playing.
Stephen Curry FD - $9800 DK - $9200
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 46.96 DK - 49.63
And what do we do with the Warriors right now? Curry seems to be the only guy who is paying his current prices with any sort of regularity, in spite of all the starters playing their regular minutes. Durant's shots have been erratic, Green's shots continue to be non-existent, and Klay's price has exceeded his performance. Throw in a 12 point spread and Curry is the only Warrior I'm hoping to see in our optimal lineups tomorrow.
Memphis Grizzlies at the Los Angeles Clippers
There is no line on this game as of now.
Gallinari is the big question mark, here. He sat out Saturday's game thanks to his sore ankle, and there is still no word as to whether he'll play in this one. If he sits, there is one clear best play on this slate.
JaMychal Green FD - $4000 DK - $4200
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 28.79 DK - 29.13
Green needed just 23 minutes to drop 18 and 10 against the Cavs, before the game was so out of hand that all of the starters got a bit of a rest. If Gallo sits again we'll get him on extra minutes and a juicy revenge game narrative, and given how awful the slate is in general he'd just be too good a value to pass up.
Elsewhere in Clipsville, our lineup optimizer likes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is fully running the offense right now. It's not a great match-up with the Grizz, but it's not a great slate, and it might be the best you can do.
Jonas Valanciunas FD - $8500 DK - $7900
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 45.62 DK - 46.87
Tyler Dorsey FD - $4500 DK - $4500
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 22.85 DK - 23.75
It's tough to know what the Grizzlies' plan is as of this writing since they haven't yet played their Saturday game, but given that Noah didn't play on Saturday it's certainly possible that JV is a terrific play once again against a Clippers team that would really rather try to cheat away playing real 5s. Dorsey just represents a solid shooting guard option at a position that is sorely lacking them.
