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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday 3/4/19
On Monday, the Lakers and Clippers face off in one of the more interesting games of the season. Not only is there a ton of DFS relevance, but it's also a fight for the playoffs in the Western Conference. Let's take a look at some plays from that game, plus other value for FanDuel and DraftKings.
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Point Guard
Rajon Rondo FD - $6100 DK - $5500
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 33.23 DK - 34.47
The Lakers are basically at Death’s doorstep right now in a borderline (at worst) must-win game on Monday. The game against the Clippers is of the highest leverage if LA has really any shot to make the playoffs. A loss to the Clippers would mean LAC had the tiebreak in the Western Conference last playoff spot. Rondo has started the last couple of games and *should* stick with that group again on Monday. He was awful in the game against the Suns, going 1-10 from the field and playing only 26 minutes. Look for a bounce-back game and a return of steadier minutes in this one. He’s only a game removed from a near-triple double against the Bucks on Friday. The Clippers guards won't expose him too much on defense and this is a spot for him to stay on the court.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander FD - $4300 DK - $3900
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 20.88 DK - 20.57
Landry Shamet FD - $4600 DK - $4000
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 20.18 DK - 21.22
The minutes’ leash has been a little longer for SGA over the last two games with the rookie playing 32 and 29 respectively. His biggest issue, from a fantasy perspective, is that the run is just so variable. He can see 17 minutes just as easy as playing 30. But he’s had double-digit scoring nights in each of the last three following a horrendous 0/2/0/0/2 (steals) line against the Mavericks last Monday. He should be able to match up well with a stumbling Lakers’ squad though, in this game and my only concern is Gilgeous-Alexander does tend to see a few more minutes in blowouts. That might not be the case on Monday so we’ll tread carefully.
Meanwhile, Shamet’s been in the starting lineup in the short term since coming over at the trade deadline from the Sixers in the Tobias Harris deal. His opportunity is a little more set than SGA’s with 26 or more minutes in five of the last six games. He’s taken 10 and 11 three-point attempts in the last two games and that’s really where his fantasy bread is buttered. He needs to knock down shots from deep. Both of these guys are coming near punt prices on DraftKings and are worth a look at upside plays on FanDuel as well.
Strongly consider De'Aaron Fox (FD $8400 DK $7500) against the Knicks.
Shooting Guard
Buddy Hield FD - $7600 DK - $7000
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 36.01 DK - 38.07
Bogdan Bogdanovic FD - $6800 DK - $5600
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 34.26 DK - 35.02
Much like the Lakers, the Kings are in a fight for their playoff lives and will be going for it over these last two months. They’ve really concentrated minutes around the starters and are running Hield and Bogdanovich at the two and three respectively. The former is having an excellent season with a team-high 21 points a game and has rounded into the shooter the Kings traded for in the Cousins’ deal two years ago. Hield is shooting 44% from beyond the arc on close to eight attempts per game. And now he gets to face a garbage Knicks’ team ranked 27th in defensive efficiency and that was before they got dusted by the Clippers on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Bogdan has played a combined 78 minutes in the last two games (against Milwaukee went to OT) and took 37 shots. He ran bad last game, going only 3-15 from the field. It’s kept the price somewhat in check and I really believe in the minutes as long as the Knicks can keep it a semblance of close (a big *if*). Stacking both of these guys gives you a solid cash game floor and a lot of potential shots.
If Taurean Prince were to sit again, then I think Kent Bazemore (FD $4400 DK $4900) would once again make for an interesting play. He ran 27 minutes as a starter on Sunday and was relatively at his FanDuel price. We’ll need more than a little Hawks’ injury news going into this game.
D'Angelo Russell (FD $9100 DK $8000) makes a great DraftKings’ pick at that price.
Small Forward
LeBron James FD - $12400 DK - $11200
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 60.2 DK - 63.06
Like I said with Rondo, this is essentially do-or-die time for the Lakers. They are in serious jeopardy of making the playoffs, with just a 14% probability to get in according to FiveThirtyEight. It’s a sad state of affairs, but we should be able to take advantage of another big-minute game out of Lebron on Monday. He’s averaging 39 minutes per game over the last five with a 28 point, 12 rebound, eight assist line in that stretch. LA is also 1-4 during that span so for all the fantasy heroics, the real life wins just aren’t there. But, for now, we don’t really care about that side of the game. James has the best floor of anyone in this price range on Monday simply because no one is going to compete with the average minutes he’s playing.
Harrison Barnes FD - $5700 DK - $5100
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 31.16 DK - 32.52
As with Hield and Bogdanovich, Barnes draws that swiss cheese Knicks’ defense as well on Monday and is in a tremendous spot without breaking the bank on you. He’s playing a ton of minutes (36 or more in regulation over the last three) and has double-digit shot attempts in the last two. He can pull a disappearing act from time to time (just two points against the T-Wolves in 36 minutes last Monday) but there’s plenty of upside as well (15 points and 14 rebounds a game later against the Bucks). I’m mostly buying on the huge minutes and matchup for Barnes on Monday. It’s worth mentioning that though the scoring has dipped since the trade from the Mavs, Barnes is making some of it up on the boards (6.8 per game, 4.2 with the Mavs) and in assists (2.4 per, 1.3 with the Mavs). He’s running bad from three as well as King. The games where he puts it all together will have him crushing these salaries.
Power Forward
Dwight Powell FD - $6300 DK - $5200
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 36.27 DK - 35.76
Powell’s started the last three games at center for the Mavericks and that should be the case again on Monday when they face the Nets. Since entering that role (four games), Powell is averaging 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.5 steals. Now he gets to face a Brooklyn team that’s allowing 12% more scoring and 10% more rebounding than league average to opposing centers. They are actually slightly above average when it comes to strict PF types, but Powell should be active on the glass regardless in this game. The price has come up on both sites, but it’s still not totally in line with his opportunity. He makes for an exceptionally strong DraftKings’ pick at center.
Bam Adebayo FD - $5500 DK - $5600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 32.96 DK - 31.62
Kelly Olynyk FD - $5600 DK - $5300
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 28.18 DK - 28.93
I never root for injuries, it being bad juju and all. But in this case, I’ll just say that if all things are equal and no instant karma will get me then I suppose I’d prefer for Hassan Whiteside to sit out again on Monday. Hassan’s sat out the last three games and these dudes have feasted in the starting lineup. Adebayo’s controlled the glass, pulling down 10 rebounds a game and averaging two blocks per. He’s also averaged double-digit scoring in that stretch.
Meanwhile, Olynyk’s found the best scoring touch of his career, averaging 22 points per game over the last four. He’s taking 14 shots per game and though the three-point shooting is running hot (11-19 in that stretch), the usage rate still has him paying off these prices if the minutes are there. The Heat and Coach Spo can be maddening with rotations and minutes, but I’m starting to trust the short term opportunity and would be willing to roll both of these guys again if Whiteside sits.
Consider Montrezl Harrell (FD $7200 DK $6300) who could end up playing a lot against a soft Lakers’ front court defense.
Center
Willie Cauley-Stein FD - $6100 DK - $5800
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 35.65 DK - 34.65
All the Kings today. With Marvin Bagley out, Cauley-Stein re-entered the starting lineup against the Clippers on Friday and had his best game in a great while. He finished with 16 points, 12 rebounds and four blocks, good for one of the plays of the night. Considering the track record we had with the guy over the last couple of months as a starter, I don’t think we can pencil him in for similar production going forward. But he’s still a candidate to play 30+ minutes against a very weak Knicks’ defensive frontcourt. They have some size depending on if DeAndre Jordan is back or Mitchell Robinson continues seeing big minutes (or both). But neither are good block defenders at this point.
The news we’ll really be waiting on is what the Hawks end up doing against the Heat. On Sunday, they started Alex Len (FD $3700 DK $4000) and Dewayne Dedmon (FD $5800 DK $6400) alongside each other against the Bulls. Both were effective in the win. Len was the big winner, putting down 28 points and nine rebounds. If he started again, expect to see him as the highest-owned play on the slate considering the price didn’t really move.
Dedmon would be a solid play as well, though you’d have to stack them on DraftKings. Len would be the clear play on FanDuel with only one center. Again, we need to wait for the Taurean Prince news and some solid lineup confirmation before locking them in. But considering Atlanta is the first game of the evening, we should have word in plenty of time.
