FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday 2/4/19

Well, Super Bowl Sunday is behind us and it's time to come to grips with another Tom Bray victory. Such is the breaks. But there's still plenty of NBA action to console ourselves with. Let's get it on with a full slate of action for FanDuel and DraftKings.

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Point Guard

Darren Collison FD - $6500 DK - $6200
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 31.47 DK - 30.99
Cory Joseph FD - $4500 DK - $4100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 24.94 DK - 24.56
Without Victor Oladipo for the rest of the season, the Pacers are in an *all hands on deck* situation in an effort to keep the rest of the year afloat without their superstar. That’s led to a usage bump in the short term for Collison who’s taken 13 and 14 shots respectively over the last two games with an average 18 points and assists in that time frame. The Pelicans have allowed 116 points per game to their opponents over the last five games and are once again going to be without most of their varsity squad. Collision’s price has come up in the short term because of the newer opportunity, but I still think he’s something of a value considering the matchup.

Meanwhile, Joseph has been starting over the last couple of games and has kept that spot even with Tyreke Evans back in the fold. The steals have buffered his fantasy performance in that time period considering the usage isn’t always there when he’s running with the starters. But the minutes are for sure there and the price hasn’t moved all that much. Much like Collison, the key here is the matchup with the Pelicans doesn’t offer much in the way of resistance.

Frank Jackson FD - $3900 DK - $3700
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 22.41 DK - 23.46
Do you trust the Pelicans? Me neither, mostly. They have a lot of incentive to head directly towards the tank with Anthony Davis out of the mix and they’ve already ruled out a lot of their *good* players again for Monday’s game. Jackson is still starting at the point guard spot and finally realized big minutes on Saturday when he played 42 and finished with 25 points, two assists and two rebounds. The minutes are super encouraging at these price points but you have to worry about how scoring dependent his fantasy production is. I’m willing to risk it considering he’s a punt play, but Tim Frazier and Jrue Holiday can eat into this run rather easily so he’s far from a sure thing.

Shooting Guard

Monte Morris FD - $5800 DK - $6000
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 34.89 DK - 35.09
Malik Beasley FD - $4900 DK - $5500
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 30.65 DK - 31.89
Torrey Craig FD - $3600 DK - $4000
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 21.27 DK - 20.95
Look, most of this value comes from the statuses of both Jamal Murray and Gary Harris being ruled out. With the Nuggets regular starting backcourt down over the last couple of games, these three have filled in most of the minutes. Monte Morris has been the real winner, starting at point guard and averaging close to 40 minutes per game in the short term. Over the last three games, he’s averaging 18 points, eight assists and seven rebounds per game. These are just edited numbers and the prices don’t even come close to reflecting this opportunity when the Nuggets are short on guards. Even with the price increase, Morris is still an edit cash game FanDuel and DraftKings pick.

Malik Beasley and Torrey Craig aren’t quite in the same tier but are still plenty worthy of cash game consideration on this slate. Beasley’s been in the starting lineup for Harris and has seen excellent usage when running with the starters. He’s taking an average of 14 shots per game over the last five games and has put up 22 points per in that timeframe. He’s very scoring dependent with 63% of his fantasy production coming from putting the ball in the basket. That’s going to lead to a lot of variance in the fantasy points if the shot isn’t falling. But it’s also keeping the price in check on FanDuel.

If Eric Bledsoe is ruled out again, then Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton would also be excellent shooting guard plays on both sites. Middleton put up an excellent line against the Wizards on Saturday with 20 points, six assists and seven rebounds while Brogdon finished with 15 points, nine rebounds and five assists. Neither played anything close to max minutes because the game was well in hand again. Keep an ear out for this news on Bledsoe.

 

Small Forward

Otto Porter FD - $6600 DK - $5900
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 34.74 DK - 33.69
Trevor Ariza FD - $6100 DK - $5700
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 30.39 DK - 30.17
The Wizards draw the best DFS matchup around on Monday with the Hawks playing the league’s fastest pace and a bottom-third defensive efficiency. It stands to reason the Wiz are still in win-now mode considering the East is terrible and they are too talented to really embrace anything close to a tank. That should continue leading to big minutes for their wings. They won’t be played off the court because of Atlanta size issues and the Porter/ Ariza combo could see mid-to-high 30’s minutes again. Both should see mid-teens shot attempts and while the Hawks do have some competent *wing* defense, I’m mostly looking at these two from a volume perspective. The pace of play should lead to more shots and neither becomes a defensive liability because of any specific Atlanta rotation.

Darius Miller FD - $4800 DK - $4800
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 26.2 DK - 26.98
I’m still buying on the minutes’ upside for a guy like Miller with the rest of the Pelicans’ most on life support at this point. With most of the Pelicans out/ tanking, Miller has run major minutes in the short term and averaged close to 13 shots per game in that stretch. He needs to knock down threes in order to hit value and has shot close to ten attempts per game over the last five. That’s just the kind of upside you like to see at these price points. I’m all over Miller in cash games on this slate that doesn’t provide all that man options.

 

Power Forward

Josh Jackson FD - $6300 DK - $5700
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 30.63 DK - 30.76
With T.J. Warren out of the rotation because of injury, Jackson has picked up more wing minutes for the Suns. He’s, mostly, made the most of the opportunity averaging 17 points, six rebounds and two assists per game in this role. Dude isn’t a power forward to speak of, but the sites prefer labeling him as such, so we’ll take the tag and use it to our advantage. Such is the case with DFS these days. He should see mid 30's minutes in this matchup against the Rockets who really can't exploit size in any matchup. That should help Jackson stay on the court and I'm not as worried about his minutes as I would be in other matchups.

Thaddeus Young FD - $6300 DK - $5800
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.19 DK - 29.43
It’s not a sexy matchup by any stretch of the imagination, but this position on FanDuel is seemingly always a disaster. That leaves us often trying to make sense of the mid-tier plays like Young. The minutes have comes and gone in the short term even against somewhat ideal matchups. That’s only served to drive the price lower on both sites. Young does have double-double upside and is averaging a 12 point, eight assist line over the last five games. So he’s not a DOA fantasy prospect. But you are taking on a certain amount of variance when rostering him. The is a matchup where I like his prospects to hit some upside.

 

Center

Nikola Jokic FD - $11300 DK - $10500
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 52.63 DK - 54.73
From our system’s perspective, Jokic is a much better DraftKings’ pick in this matchup. He’s playing at a complete superstar level right now, averaging 24 points, 13 rebounds and eight assists over his last five games along with almost two blocks as well. That’s in *only* 33 minutes per game and some not-so-great matchups like Philly and Memphis in there. The main thing with Jokic has been a longer leash on the minutes with the Nuggets for real competing in the West and playing in closer games. It’s all coming together for the guy and he’s lining up as an excellent cash game play once again. He might be getting a little too expensive on FanDuel but being able to roster two centers on DraftKings has him firmly in play over there.

Deandre Ayton FD - $7400 DK - $6800
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 36.72 DK - 37.93
Aston came back from a six-game injury absence looking no worse for wear. He promptly came in and played 33 minutes against the Hawks and put up a 13 point, 11 rebound line against Atlanta. He’ll now face a Rockets’ team starting Kenneth Faried at center and Ayton will have a great deal of size over almost anyone Houston puts in at the five. Houston is allowing 20 points and 12 rebounds to opposing centers over the short term (since losing Capela). Phoenix isn’t at an enormous risk of a blowout here with Houston only eight-point road favorites. I think Ayton sees his full run and is coming too cheap for the matchup.

 

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