Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Friday 12/21/18

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Point Guard

Fred Vanvleet FD - $5300 DK - $5500
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 33.86 DK - 34.5
Kyle Lowry’s been all but ruled out for Friday, paving the way for another round of big minutes out of Vanvleet. FVV is something of a Swiss Army Knife for the Raptors in that he grabs the start when Lowry or Leonard sit out. The former will draw the start again and gets a fantastic matchup against a defensively-challenged Cavaliers’ team. Cleveland ranks dead last in defensive efficiency this season with no real hope of improvement. There’s some blowout risk here with Toronto -12.5 home favorites so you could see more Delon Wright down the stretch. But as a mid-tier play, I’m all over FVV here.

Derrick Rose FD - $7300 DK - $7200
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 34.86 DK - 36.19
Jeff Teague has already been ruled out for Friday and we should get another heavy minutes night out of Rose. The latter saw massive usage on Wednesday against the Pistons with Teague out of the lineup, putting up 29 shots in the overtime loss. He has a positive net rating on the season and doesn’t do Minnesota a big disservice by playing major minutes at the one. He needs to get into the lane to be effective, and San Antonio isn’t the epic disaster on defense like they were earlier in the season. The Timberwolves are four-point road dogs in a game with a 220 over/under. Rose should see all of the run in this matchup and on FanDuel I’m fine with him in cash even with the slight price increase. It’s not as clear for me on DraftKings where his lack of three-pointers does hurt him at that price.

Even against the Utah Jazz, I think you can consider Damian Lillard considering he’s been priced down in the matchup. He looks like a bargain on DraftKings at $8500 even accounting for Utah’s tougher defense.

I also don’t totally mind Ricky Rubio coming back the other way against Portland.

Shooting Guard

DeMar DeRozan FD - $8300 DK - $8000
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 43.32 DK - 43.62
Four of the Spurs’ last five games have been blowout wins and DeRozan just hasn’t been called on to play bigger minutes. His per minute scoring is still in line with his season averages and the other stats (assists and rebounds) have more than been there. San Antonio just hasn’t needed to overextend him in the short term. But this game rates to stay close and Vegas thinks it will, then we should see a solid usage rate out of DDR. It could be problematic if he draws a lot of Covington here, but I think the likely minutes’ increase alone compared to the short-term run has us buying at something of a discount.

Justin Holiday FD - $5600 DK - $5300
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 29.82 DK - 30.11
This game has a very low total (204) but the spread is close (Orlando -3) which could spell a lot minutes once again for the Holiday if the game stays close. With Zach Lavine out of the rotation (and Cam Payne injured) the Bulls remain very thin at the guard and Holiday is a guy they’ve had no issue running out there for major minutes. He isn’t a dynamic fantasy scorer, but the run makes up for some of those concerns. He’s played 35 or more minutes in four of the last five games and averaged 10 points, four rebounds, three assists and a bunch of defensive stats in that timeframe.

If Kawhi Leonard is also ruled out in addition to Kyle Lowry, then both Delon Wright and Danny Green would enter the cash game mix. Both are labeled as shooting guards on FanDuel and I’d have no issue stacking them together (along with VanVleet). But again, this is mostly contingent on Kawhi sitting the front end of the back-to-back.

 

Small Forward

LeBron James FD - $11200 DK - $10900
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 56.97 DK - 58.31
Lebron draws one of the best matchups around here against the Pelicans who are playing the fourth-fastest pace in the league with a bottom five defensive efficiency. There's a reason the Lakers come in with the highest implied total on the day and Lebron has such a solid floor in this matchup. He hasn't exactly been consistent on the season, and the price is way up there. But pairing he and Anthony Davis (who we will get to in a moment) is looking more and more like the cash game play on this slate. That would especially be the case if there's plenty of savings to grab at the guard positions.

Rodney Hood FD - $4100 DK - $4600
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 23.52 DK - 24.15
You have to like the minutes' floor on Hood who's played 35 and 36 in consecutive games. The fantasy production isn't robust but that's built into his price. He's averagin 17 points, three rebounds, four assists and a steal over his last five. That gets you above 5x on his FanDuel price and he allows another way to pay up for a couple of the superstars on this slate. There's blowout risk with the Raptors big favorites but they could also be playing shorthanded.

If Julius Randle sits again, then Darius Miller would be a strong punt play consideration at small forward. He played 37 minutes last game when he drew the start for Randle. The guy needs to hit his threes considering most of his fantasy production comes from scoring, but he'd offer high minutes' upside for a low price.

 

Power Forward

Anthony Davis FD - $12600 DK - $11700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 70.15 DK - 68.72
Look, I get it. This guy heads to the locker more on his own more than most teams combined. You have to live with that eventuality if you roster the guy. But this is also the same guy who left the game on Wednesday with a bellyache and still managed a 27 point and 11 rebound line with six steals and blocks combined in only 29 minutes. And for all of his uncertainty, this is still a guy who’s been remarkably consistent this season with the lowest coefficient of variation of fantasy points among the upper tier of overall scorers. The in-game injury issues haven’t been as big a deal this season. He looks like a much better option if the Pelicans are once again without Julius Randle (currently questionable) and Nikola Mirotic has already been ruled out. The Pels are thin in the front court no matter what and we could be staring down the barrel of another big Davis night.

Kevin Knox FD - $6300 DK - $6000
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 31.19 DK - 32.48
Noah Vonleh FD - $6100 DK - $5600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 31.09 DK - 32.14
Both of these guys have seen a jump in price, but like we'll get to when we talk about Kanter shortly, they are mid-tier plays against a fantastic DFS opponent. The Hawks offer a chance for a high volume scoring game. Knox is seeing great usage since joining the starting lineup, averaging 16 shots per game over his last five and an 18 point, five rebound line. He's taking almost seven threes per game and knocking them down more than 40% of the time in the short term.

Meanwhile, Vonlehis foul trouble waiting to happen and will get his minutes buzzed quicker than Knox, but also offers double-double upside when things are going right. But the volatility around the minutes is what keeps the price lower than Knox. I think I'd still be fine with the risk simply because the matchup is so choice.

I think you can consider Daniel Theis for cheap if he's in the starting lineup for the Celtics.

 

Center

Nikola Vucevic FD - $9000 DK - $9200
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 49.26 DK - 50.79
Vucevic missed last game for the birth of his kid but he’s fully expected back against the Bulls in this game. Chicago is one of the worst teams in the league at defending opposing centers. They allow roughly 9% more scoring and 14% more rebounding than league average to the position leaving Vuce a chance to take advantage of a weak interior. He's averaging 20.6 points, 11.7 rebounds and three assists on the season, easily his best year yet. And the nature of the Bulls' offense won't require him to overly exert on the defensive end. He's a fantastic big money option on this slate.

Enes Kanter FD - $6700 DK - $7000
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 34.58 DK - 36.7
It might seem like a minor thing, but Mitchell Robinson sitting out for the Knicks does give Kanter a few extra minutes of expected run. Over the last three games, with Robinson out, Kanter played 28+ minutes in each, averaging 16 points and 12 rebounds per. Now he’ll draw the Hawks’, a team that runs the easily the fastest pace in the league with the 26th-ranked defensive efficiency. Again, it’s always though to trust how the Knicks are going to run out their rotations, but in matchups like this one against similarly bad teams, we can trust the starters just a little bit more.

Keep an eye on Robert Williams here. He could draw the start for Boston with both Baynes and Horford out. I also really like Myles Turner against the Nets.

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