Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 8/2/14

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Pitchers

Wow, this is such a crazy tough day to pick out the best value among pitchers. I’m going to throw out a few more options than normal and give the cases for and against.

Ian Kennedy - FD 7600 DK 8300 DD 15600 SS 24000
For: From a dollar perspective, I think he is the best play of the day. Having a solid season with a low three’s xFIP and striking out more than a batter an inning. Braves rank near the bottom of the league in team wOBA against righties.
Against: Padres’ offensive is garbage making it tough for him to get the win against Santana.

Homer Bailey - FD 8300 DK 8200 DD 15250 SS 22300
For: Marlins K a ton. Bailey’s biggest issue is allowing home runs, but Miami is such a great place for pitchers that we reduce those chances by a fair amount. xFIP is half a run lower than ERA.
Against: When it goes wrong there’s no redemption. The longball is a real thing and it can crush him.

Hyun-Jin Ryu - FD 8300 DK 9400 DD 17500 SS 26400
For: Cubs strike out at an alarming rate against lefties. More than 25% of the time. Ryu’s 3.19 xFIP is solid and his K/BB peripherals are great.
Against: Cubs rank 4th in the league in team wOBA against lefties. So basically when they aren’t striking out, they’re killing you.

Justin Masterson - FD 6200 DK 6000 DD 10150 SS 15500
For: Is among the best in baseball (specialized relievers included) at getting right handed batters out. The Brewers are a righy-dominant lineup.
Against: Just back from injury. Wasn’t all that good before he got hurt.

 

Catchers

Miguel Montero - FD 2600 DK 3900 DD 7900 SS 5600
Been on the Montero train for a few days now and I don’t plan on de-boarding. Not when we are pulling into Vance Worley Station. (Getting sick of the lame “train” device I’m using here?) Anyway, we are set to depart towards ValueTown (Ok, I’m done now) as Montero is a solid low price guy with solid upside considering he’s hitting in the middle of the order and right behind Goldschmidt. I’m loving the prices here.

Texas Catchers
Robinson Chirinos - FD 2500 DK 3400 DD 5000 SS 3900
J.P. Arencibia - FD 3100 DK 3600 DD 7700 SS 5500
Honestly, as long as he’s starting I’ll have Montero in most places but if I’m looking to pivot or hedge at all I’d consider whichever one of these guys is facing T.J. House. Neither is particularly good, but there is some power between them and House is a low K dude. Again, this is mostly a price thing as I think Montero laps the field in terms of value. But it’s always nice to have options.

Consider A.J. Ellis

 

First Basemen

Oh man, have you noticed first base has kind of sucked lately? It’s a position that’s been giving me fits. Today is no different as a bunch of guys are all sitting around the same value price point.

Miguel Cabrera - FD 4900 DK 5700 DD 12000 SS 9500
You should be able to swing the salary because of the pitching situation. I’m not going to patronize you here by laying out the reasons to start this guy. Unless you just started playing fantasy baseball, or watching baseball, you know the story. Even in a possible decline he’s still among the best hitters in baseball. Today, I think you can work the salary in. And that’s all that counts in this format.

Adam LaRoche - FD 3100 DK 4300 DD 8650 SS 6600
A solid mid tier guy if that’s the range you’re looking. Laroche’s putting up a decent season with an OPS in the mid to upper .800’s against lefties and 140 wRC+ in spite of the .283 Babip. A.J. Burnett’s lost his K upside and is struggling around the margins now with a 4.00 xFIP and K-ing less than eight per nine. Dude’s also back to walking the ballpark. Laroche will be a low percentage start and I like it for contrarian purposes.

Consider Paul Goldschmidt and Adam Dunn

 

Second Basemen

Ian Kinsler - FD 3500 DK 4500 DD 8850 SS 7200
Another day of Colorado throwing out a middling lefty. This is becoming a theme of the picks as I’ll spend an entire series writing about the righties facing the Rockies. Getting kind of old really. Wish the Rockies had shaken their rotation up at the trade deadline just to give me a new thing to write about. Jerks. Anyway, Matzek has run crazy hot on Hr/FB% (No small feat for a dude who pitches in Coors) and is a mid 4’s xFIP guy going against a train of righty Tiger bats. Kinsler included.

Daniel Murphy - FD 3000 DK 4200 DD 9000 SS 7200
Jake Peavy doesn’t have the exact pitching profile I like to target when considering Murphy, but he’s close. The K numbers sit around seven per nine and the walks are kind of average. Peavy’s xFIP is in the fours and that’s good enough for me to take a look at Murphy and his goal to make contact on every single swing. ( I understand this is the goal for all hitters, but I think you know what I mean.) Murphy’s contact rate is really damn high and he should be able to make things happen against Peavy today.

Consider Robinson Cano especially on FanDuel

 

Shortstops

Elvis Andrus - FD 2600 DK 3900 DD 8150 SS 5600
I’m going cheap here for sure today and Andrus makes a nice little option considering the opposition. T.J. House isn’t a bottom-feeding pitcher by any means, but he pitches to Andrus’ strength which is making contact, sprinting to first, getting on first and promptly stealing second. He needs all of those things to happen to hit value and today there’s a good chance of it. Andrus is tough to K and walk, and House doesn’t K many and walks few. It’s a match made in contact.

Eugenio Suarez - FD 2200 DK 3300 DD 5000 SS 4400
Been getting the heavy reps at short for the Tigers and I’ll have him in some spots for sure going against Matzek. Suarez is essentially a punt play which is fine at shortstop most days. Today is no exception. Suarez has been serviceable against lefties with a 113 wRC+ even with a below average Babip. He hits ninth which isn’t ideal and is one big bonus in terms of Andrus who hits higher in the order. But Suarez offers some salary relief with little downside.

Consider Didi Gregorius

 

Third Basemen

Adrian Beltre - FD 3900 DK 4700 DD 9850 SS 8100
Been awhile since I’ve written about my boy Adrian, but it’s nice to have him back on the list. Makes a great play today about the lefty House mostly because Beltre is a stud against lefties. If he was a horse, they’d find a nice pasture for him to father other horses who could also hit lefties.* He’s coming at bargain prices across the industry and considering you won’t be breaking the bank for any pitcher today, I think you should be playing him almost everywhere. He’s just that good. The .916 OPS and 143 wRC+ this season against lefties only reinforce his career numbers.
*perfect analogy

Lonnie Chisenhall - FD 2500 DK 3700 DD 6400 SS 6000
If you aren’t rolling Beltre and want to go cheaper here is a place to start. Chisenhall’s had a solid season against righty pitching and Miles Mikolas is about as good a pitcher as his name suggests (if there is a more unathletic sounding name in all of sport I’d love to hear it. Kevin Quackenbush maybe). Mikolas sucks and Lonnie’s .369 wOBA and .840 OPS are more than fine for his salaries today.

Consider Evan Longoria against C.J. Wilson who’s right off the DL

 

Outfielders

Alex Rios - FD 3000 DK 4300 DD 8650 SS 6300
Yes. Please. If you know how Rios’ recent years have been against lefties, then you won’t be at all surprised to see what damage he’s done against them this year. Brace yourself for some stat porn. 1.046 OPS. 177 wRC+. And a .438 wOBA against lefties. Oh baby. I’m getting hot and bothered over here. Taking a break for a second… Okay I’m back. Rios is coming at some crazy advantageous prices considering his success against lefties and I’m all aboard his value today. He will be in every format for me as I think the downside is so mitigated because his price is low. Great play.

Rajai Davis - FD 3000 DK 4300 DD 7650 SS 6900
The rest of the Tiger OF has gotten a little overpriced, though I could see myself playing them in a stack here or there. But Davis makes a solid cash game play as well for a couple of different reasons. He hits in front of Kinsler, Miggy and VMart. So there’s that. He’s better against lefties with a (Babip-fueled) .982 OPS on that side of the split this season. And his downside is raised because of the speed.

Desmond Jennings - FD 3000 DK 4400 DD 7800 SS 7300
Desmond’s been a historically solid hotter against lefties and this season is no different. He’s been bring it with an .884 OPS and 151 wRC+. Gives just enough of a mix of power and speed that having him in cash games feels relatively safe. Also, catching C.J. Wilson back from injury could be a nice play here.

Desmond Jennings - FD 3000 DK 4400 DD 7800 SS 7300
Jay Bruce - FD 2800 DK 4200 DD 7700 SS 6700
I’m combining them because they are bigger name guys in struggling seasons who appear near the top of our value plays against so-so pitchers. Both have high expectations that are increasingly not met and yet I’m drawn to them nonetheless. Probably is what stupid moths feel like when they bump into lights.

Consider Gerardo Parra if he plays against Masterson and Ender Inciarte as a punt

 

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