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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/29/18
Well, it's another tiny Thursday slate, and you know what that means! It's a game by game breakdown article! While we could try to fire off positional picks, it'll probably be more useful to you to think about things on a game by game basis, so let's get to it.
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Golden State Warriors at the Toronto Raptors
No line on the game as of this writing
This game doesn't have a line for one very important reason: Steph Curry's status is still in doubt. Current reports are that he "might" play, which would obviously change our projections for this game across the board. His return would probably mean that we'd need to ignore almost the entire Golden State side of this game. Both Klay and Durant have both seen their prices rise dramatically since Curry went down, and there is still a lot of leftover excess in their prices. If Curry misses, though? You'll happily run both. It's a small slate, and this should be competitive enough that the two standing stars on Golden State play their 38-40 minute rotations. Even against a tough Toronto team, you'll still play them. You could also include Andre Iguodala as a cheap value play - he's a heavy favorite to play 30+ minutes, and he's the Dubs best chance at containing Kawhi with their injured front court.
On the Toronto side, things are a little ambiguous as well.
Serge Ibaka FD - $6000 DK - $5500
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 31.39 DK - 31.14
The first and most important question: What is the Raptors plan for their bigs? Ibaka is the perfect small ball five to throw at the Dubs, and he just played 35 minutes against the Grizzlies. But he also played low 20s minutes in back to back games before that. Still, I think his speed and athleticism keep him on the court, and I expect to see solid cash game ownership assuming he's starting again.
Outside of Ibaka, things get a little bit rough. Kyle Lowry looks like a high floor option in a game where the Raptors should need him to assume a higher volume than usual. Outside of him, you have speculative options like Danny Green. He's a rotation player that could play 33 minutes, but often seems like a forgotten man if things are clicking. Still, you shouldn't rule him out at a thin SG position.
Indiana Pacers at the Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles is favored by 4.5 in a game with a 215.5 total
You love to see games with a relatively tight spread that feature actual DFS plays! Let's break it down.
Kyle Kuzma FD - $6100 DK - $5600
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 29.76 DK - 30.67
Kuzma sees a modest price increase after back to back 30+ minute games, but nothing that should care us away here. The Pacers have been one of the very worst teams in the league at defending opposing power forwards ever since Thaddeus Young arrived, and that hasn't changed this year. It's troubling that Kuzma has gotten more scoring dependent this year, but LeBron's arrival seems to have contributed to him being more efficient when he is out there. He's approaching a 50% field goal percentage, and on a team that can have trouble scoring, Kuz seems like a lock to stay out there for 30+ if the game stays close.
Outside of Kuzma, LeBron James is really the only guy our system is very impressed by. If Curry comes back (thus eliminating Durant from playability), LeBron might leap-frog to the "best big money payoff" slot. He's nothing to write home about value-wise, but on a day where there are some playable cheap guys, he's absolutely worth your consideration.
On the Pacers' side, things get a little more interesting. With Oladipo "unlikely to play," we get our usual decisions about where we think the opportunity is headed. Tyreke Evans has been extremely disappointing so far, but remains an interesting big tournament play precisely because of how disappointing he's been.
Darren Collison is probably still playable even at $6,300 on FanDuel, but he's a must-play on DraftKings at $4,700. He remains a cautionary tale for those that get over-excited about a single bad game. He was such an obvious play on FD in the $4,000s, and it's too bad that you have to pay extra for him now.
I know Domantas Sabonis has been paying his prices, but we're projecting him for the 22-23 minutes per game that he's been playing, and I just don't suspect he can score 2 fantasy points a minute forever.
Los Angeles Clippers at the Sacramento Kings
The Clippers are favored by 3 in a game with a game with a 235 total
Another close game, but this one has less fantasy intrigue for me. Am I the only one who just kind of hates the Clippers on their current prices? Both Tobias Harris and Montrezl Harrell are really expensive, and while both certainly have the potential to pay their prices, it's just tough to make a real lineup when you're paying this much at power forward today. I'll probably just stick with Ibaka/Kuzma for cash and leave the big Clips to big tournaments.
Avery Bradley FD - $3700 DK - $3900
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 18.89 DK - 19.11
Now THIS is a value play. Bradley is playing 30+ minute rotations and paying these prices already, and on a tiny slate where shooting guard is garbage, I'll basically be locking him into my lineups and moving on with my life.
The Kings are bringing a couple value guys to the table as well. Buddy Hield was $8,000 on FanDuel a couple weeks ago, and now the price has come down to $6,000. The $8k price tag was admittedly a total overreaction, but Hield has scored exactly 30 fantasy points a game this season, which is just where you want him to be for cash games. His minutes can come and go in a blowout, but he should be out there for 33-35 minutes here, making him an easy cop at SG.
I also don't mind his running mate Bogdan Bogdanovic. Just another high floor option, and an interesting hedge if you think Bradley shadows Hield.
After those two, things get tough. Bagley is now too expensive, WCS is too inconsistent, and De'Aaron Fox is a mix of both. It's just a tough slate overall.
