Daily Fantasy College Football Picks and Betting Spotlight (Premium) for DraftKings - Week 5

Another week in the books and another 20 point win for Bama. A quarter of the way through the season and it doesn’t look like anyone can stop this Tide from burying college campuses across America. Old Dominion the dragon slayer dropped Virginia Tech in a stunner while Oklahoma escaped a narrow one against Army to keep it’s playoff hopes alive. This week Texas Tech, who has scored 181 points in their last three games including wins over Houston and Oklahoma State, travels to Morgantown to face West Virginia in what is sure to be an excellent game. Duke will look to move to 5-0 with a win over the reeling Hokies. I predict North Texas will finish 14-0 and ranked in the top 25. And lastly, how will the new redshirt rule impact two deeps as players leave their teams and play as graduate transfers next season. Stay strapped in and enjoy the ride, cause we got you covered.

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence -Clemson
DK 8500
Opponent Syracuse
Friday, October 13th, 2017: the scoreboard reads 27-24 and the game clock reads zeros. Down goes Frazier and Syracuse upsets #2 Clemson in a thriller. Something tells me even Dabo Swinney’s dog circled this one on the calendar. Lawrence will be making his first start after taking over for Kelly Bryant last week against Georgia Tech. Lawrence responded by chucking four touchdowns on just 18 pass attempts. Through four weeks, both quarterbacks have played in each game, but Trevor has largely outplayed Bryant and is tied for the ACC lead with nine touchdown passes on just 60 attempts, good for a ridiculous 15% touchdown rate. Keep in mind Bryant is 16-2 as a starter if that tells you anything about the talent Lawrence possesses. Swinney has already named Lawrence the starter for Saturday, but has not clarified Bryant’s new role or if he will play. There are mumblings that Bryant will redshirt and play as a graduate transfer next season, which would cement Lawrence as the top play on the board. Syracuse is allowing 13 points per game over its last three games. They were all against inferior opponents who didn’t want revenge. Dabo wants to unleash his new weapon and pile it on to make amends for last year’s blunder. Clemson wins big and Lawrence has a career day. Update: Kelly Bryant has announced he is transferring. 

Tua Tagovailoa -Alabama
DK 9000
Opponent Louisiana
Immense upside with little downside. Alabama has been absolutely dominating teams and looks every bit of continuing their dynasty over college football. We are yet to see a full game out of Tua with all the blowouts, yet he remains in the Heisman conversation. Pretty remarkable when you think about it. Jalen Hurts has been coming in and siphoning off some of Tua’s upside. That may be true this week as well and with Bama as 49 point favorites we could see Hurts early in the game. That said, Hurts has already appeared in four games and if he appears in a 5th he will lose his redshirt eligibility, something many considered the most likely scenario. Now that doesn’t mean Tua will stay in the whole game, but he will get a longer leash. Regardless, I like Tua for cash as his floor is just insanely high. The yards may not be there, but the touchdowns will be. This is a fluid situation that needs to be monitored, but if news breaks that Hurts will redshirt, Tua’s ceiling gets a nice bump and Mac Jones enters the GPP conversation as the new QB2 for the Tide.
UPDATE:
There are reports Jalen Hurts will not redshirt and remain on the team as the Tide’s backup. Nick Saban thinks he will stay, but nothing is officially verified. With Hurts in the picture it’s hard to justify playing Tua over Lawrence in cash games. If you wanted to move down the salary scale I would pivot to David Blough (Purdue $7600) who has been named the Starter where he was previously listed as Co-Starter. Blough should take every snap Saturday at Nebraska and has been pretty productive when given a full game of work. With Alabama expected to score north of 50 points Tua can still be used as a contrarian GPP play as most folks will fade him thinking he will only play a half at most. Even Hurts is in play as he may see more run than he has all year. Keep tabs on the news and adjust your lineups accordingly.

 

Running Back

Trayveon Williams -Texas A&M
DK 8100
Opponent Arkansas
The running back position looks to be a little fickle this week with either volume or game script issues, but neither apply to Mr. Williams. He is easily my top cash play at the position. In the two games this year where A&M entered as a favorite Trayveon has 44 carries for 368 yards and four touchdowns. In the two games as an underdog Williams has 25 carries for 62 yards and zero touchdowns. Texas A&M enters the game as healthy 20.5 point favorites with a total of 62. Arkansas has looked terrible all season so the Aggies should roll in this one. There really isn’t much more to elaborate on here. I fully expect Williams to receive a heavy workload and leading the scoring for the Aggies. He’s not my favorite GPP play, but as we witnessed week one, the potential to hit 5x at this salary is realistic.

Travis Etienne -Clemson
DK 7400
Opponent Syracuse
Clemson is 22.5 point favorites with a total of 65, which is a very favorable game script for Etienne. Clemson does rotate it’s backs and I would love to see Etienne get more work, but it’s clear he’s the top back. He has never received more than 16 carries in a game, but he has two 100 yard games and six total touchdowns. Syracuse is 4-0 this year and has a dynamic signal caller in Eric Dungey, but this is a buzzsaw game for the Orangemen. Swinney may pile it on here. The volume isn’t great, but relative to your other options his scoring potential puts him in a good spot to be successful. I really like pairing Etienne with Lawrence for cash games to capture most of Clemson’s scoring, which should be a lot.

Wide Receiver

Rondale Moore -Purdue
DK 8200
Opponent Nebraska
Moore has been fantastic to open the 2018 season. In games not played in a monsoon this year, Moore is averaging 11/123/1. These games were against respectable competition in Northwestern and Missouri and neither had an answer for Mr. Rondale Moore. We can ignore the clunker against Eastern Michigan as the weather wasn’t exactly conducive to an effective passing game. That was from last week’s content and Moore delivered in a big way going for 110 yards on eight grabs along with two scores. Purdue has found a gem in the freshman and it’s clear as day they want to get him the ball often. Blough has already been named the starter against Nebraska and Purdue is a much more effective passing team with him under center. It’s sometimes hard to gauge the chalk in college with so many players and high scoring games, but Moore could be one of the more popular plays. Purdue enters the game as three-point favorites with a total of 56. I think that total is a little soft, but either way, Moore will be a focal point for the Boilermakers.

Isaiah Zuber -Kansas State
DK 5800
Opponent Texas
Through four games Kansas State has attempted exactly 91 passes compared to 162 rushing attempts. The Wildcats like to run, it’s not a secret, but when they pass Zuber dominates the volume. On the season Zuber has a line of 24/356/3 compared to the next closest receiver at 9/194/2. Texas is coming off big wins over USC and TCU and they have a huge home matchup against Oklahoma next week. The Longhorns may be a little sleepy for what appears to be a classic sandwich game. That said, Kansas State won’t be able to simply dominate the line and ram the ball down their throats. They will need to pass to win so I expect Zuber to once again receive double digit targets and lead the receiving corp. His middling salary makes him a solid value play. The touchdowns will need to be there to really hit his ceiling, but I like the floor he offers in this scenario.

Game Betting Spotlight

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