Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/4/18

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Pitcher

Gerrit Cole FD 10800 DK 12400
Opponent - ARI (Kris Medlen) Park - ARI
FD - 40.55 DK - 21.75

Welcome to Friday baseball! We have a jam-packed Friday on our hands with a whole lot of options at just about every position. We start at pitcher, where you'll probably want to pay up. The top option on the board is Gerrit Cole, who'll face off with the Arizona Diamondbacks in Chase Field. It was once a hitter haven, but the humidor has stopped that in its tracks. It's now right next to Marlins Park in terms of production, which is just a crazy change. Gerrit Cole has been one of the most consistent arms in all of baseball and doesn't have a single bad start to this point. He's gone seven innings in all but one game so far and that game he went 6.2 innings. He's reached 43 FD points in every start and now has one of his best match-ups yet. Against righties, the D-Backs strikeout at a whopping 24.5% and rank 17th in baseball with a .313 wOBA. They have some obvious bats to avoid, but Cole is one of the elite pitchers in the game and shouldn't have all that much trouble against a subpar D-Backs squad.

Jose Berrios FD 8800 DK 9800
Opponent - CHW (Carson Fulmer) Park - CHW
FD - 35.9 DK - 18.89

If you're looking to pay down a bit, Jose Berrios can be played in all formats. He admittedly struggled last time out against the Reds, but we know who the pitcher Jose Berrios is turning into. Up to this point, he's dominated the Orioles, White Sox, and the Indians. He now draws the White Sox again, who happen to rank 15th in baseball against right-handed pitching. They have a few bats that have impressed, but still strikeout a ton and have an extremely weak lower half of the order. U.S. Cellular Field is average for run production and Vegas has the White Sox slated at just 3.87 runs. Berrios is fairly priced on both slates and makes for a solid option in both cash games and tournaments. I will personally do my best to get to Gerrit Cole, but Berrios is a fine settle.

Strongly consider Zack Wheeler at home against the Colorado Rockies. On the season, Wheeler is striking out close to a batter per nine and the Rockies have one of the worst offenses in baseball (24th in team wOBA even with their home park in the mix).

First Base/Catcher

Salvador Perez FD 3300 DK 3600
Opponent - DET (Francisco Liriano) Park - KC
FD - 10.21 DK - 7.82

We’ll kick off the bats in Kansas City and take a look at Salvador Perez. He’s not as much of a play with catcher merged on FanDuel, but he’s an elite option on DraftKings where you must play a catcher. Perez is facing off with Francisco Liriano, which is just about the perfect match-up for a power righty bat. In 2017, Liriano allowed righties to smack him around to the tune of a .374 wOBA. He gave up 10 homers in 70 innings and didn’t show any signs of promise. Sal Perez isn’t all that better against one side of the rubber, but he held a .325+ wOBA and has been over 20 homers for three straight seasons. Catcher is always a pretty tough spot and Perez is the top play if prices isn’t considered. If it is, you’ll find me waiting for lineups and looking for some value. Either way you go is great and will lead to separate roster construction.

Freddie Freeman FD 4400 DK 5200
Opponent - SF (Chris Stratton) Park - ATL
FD - 13.61 DK - 10.21

If you’re looking to pay up at first base, you can’t go wrong with Freddie Freeman. He’s admittedly expensive and you probably don’t want to fit him in with an elite pitcher. He’s just one of the best hitters in the sport and sees a match-up with a below average righty at home in hitter-friendly SunTrust Park. His opponent, Chris Stratton, allowed a .355 wOBA to lefties in 2017. That’s with most of his games played in AT&T Park, where nobody can score runs. Freeman’s held a .422 wOBA against righties in 2017 and blasted 20 homers against them (28 total). He’s now finally seeing pitches with Acuna and Albies surrounding him and it’s paying dividends. Freeman is the top expensive 1B on the board and shouldn’t be any more than 10 or 15% owned. Let’s look at a cheaper option.

Matt Olson FD 2900 DK 3900
Opponent - BAL (Andrew Cashner) Park - OAK
FD - 10.98 DK - 8.16

If you’re looking to pay down a bit, you can turn your eyes towards one of our top teams of the night and play Matt Olson. I think Matt Adams will be the popular play here, but Olson is in just as good of a spot and will be lesser owned. Andrew Cashner is also a lot worse of a pitcher than Nick Pivetta. Cashner was decent in 2017, but his peripherals suggested impending doom. They were right, starting this season in the dumpster with a .383 wOBA allowed vs lefties. Olson has been the same hitter he was in 2017 with a .357 wOBA vs righties and 3 homers. He has the power to hit it out anywhere and Andrew Cashner is the perfect man to help.

 

Second Base

Jed Lowrie FD 4000 DK 4500
Opponent - BAL (Andrew Cashner) Park - OAK
FD - 10.07 DK - 7.71]

You initially think of Lowrie as a bottom of the order type of bat, but he’s been very different from that over the last season and a half. In 2017, he sported a .353 wOBA against righties and was one of the best A’s hitters. This season, the power bat is at work. He already has 7 homers against righties and 8 total. He’s turning into the complete package at the plate and will be hitting 3rd against Andrew Cashner. At a pretty weak position, you can’t ask for anymore. Lowrie is somewhat expensive, but he’s safe with upside and part of a team you want exposure to in cash games and tournaments.

Ian Kinsler FD 3200 DK 3500
Opponent - SEA (Mike Leake) Park - SEA
FD - 10.69 DK - 8.21

I know paying for a Jed Lowrie that’s more expensive than Jose Altuve is somewhat controversial. It doesn’t matter at all to me, but I know some won’t want to pay up for Lowrie. Here’s a pivot that’s priced too low on both sites and in a very solid spot. Hitting leadoff for this order, Kinsler is a guy I’m going to like in a lot of spots. If he gets on base, it almost forces teams to pitch to Mike Trout, who’s a whole other monster. They’re facing off with Mike Leake, who’s not good, but also not a gas can. He gave up a .317 combined wOBA in 2017 and 20 homers in 180 innings. Kinsler is better against pitchers from the left side, but still held a .334 wOBA vs righties over the last few seasons. He’s cheap enough on both sites and makes for an intriguing option in both cash games and tournaments.

Strongly consider Neil Walker 

 

Shortstop

Carlos Correa FD 4200 DK 5100
Opponent - ARI (Kris Medlen) Park - ARI
FD - 13 DK - 9.79

There are always a few ways to pay down at shortstop, but I just don’t think today is a day to do it. That could call change with a funky lineup or two, but everyone that’s currently standing out is a bit pricey. Carlos Correa leads the bunch. We haven’t talked about the Astros yet and we won’t again, but they’re firmly in play against Kris Medlen and the D-Backs bullpen. Medlen hasn’t been in the majors since 2016, when he gave up a .382 wOBA to righties. Correa is better than he ever has been and is currently posting a .365 wOBA vs righties. He’s also just 23 and still getting a whole lot better every season. He’s not overly expensive on either site and deserves attention in all formats. You’ll find him in the majority of my lineups that I’m not stacking the Red Sox on.

Xander Bogaerts FD 4000 DK 5000
Opponent - TEX (Bartolo Colon) Park - TEX
FD - 11.7 DK - 9

The Red Sox are one of the best offenses on this slate. If we’re being honest, Hanley Ramirez and Eduardo Nunez are squarely in play at each of the last two positions. They just barely missed the mark. Bogaerts slips in here under Carlos Correa as a guy that’s almost priced into the mid-range. He’s been a stud for the red-hot Sox and should continue seeing pitches with the countless weapons surrounding him. Bartolo Colon is about 100 years old at this point and should not be pitching in the majors. Colon gave up a .381 wOBA to both sides of the plate in 2017 and his velocity is only going down. His peripherals are trash right now and you can ignore the great surface numbers. Bogaerts has never been an extreme splits guy and has posted a .330 wOBA vs righties since 2015. This year, he’s held a .468. I doubt he can keep up this level of production, but he very well should in this individual match-up. The ballpark in Arlington is great for runs and Vegas has the guys projected for 5.47 runs. There’s not much to dislike in this spot. You’ll see a few more Red Sox.

Third Base

Eugenio Suarez FD 3800 DK 4700
Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - CIN
FD - 11.72 DK - 8.85

I’m always a huge fan of Eugenio Suarez when facing a lefty. He evened our his splits a bit in 2017, but still sported a .383 wOBA against southpaws with 26 total homers on the year. The Reds get to face off against Wei-Yin Chen tonight, who’s a homer-prime lefty that’s on his last leg, or toe for that matter. In 2016, his last full season, Chen allowed righties to hit for a .334 wOBA and a whopping 21 home runs in just 100 innings. Home run machine. He’s now moving into one of the better hitter ballparks in baseball and it’s no surprise to see a high-4 run projection on the Cincy Reds. Suarez should slide in there right behind Votto and be one of the premiere plays in the corner infield.

Rafael Devers FD 3800 DK 4200
Opponent - TEX (Bartolo Colon) Park - TEX
FD - 11.57 DK - 8.85

The Red Sox are a team I’ll be stacking in a whole lot of spots. At third base, Rafael Devers is my favorite of the bunch. He’s actually been better against lefties since coming into the majors, but a .469 BABIP against lefties throws a wrench into everything. Actually, he is just as good against righties as he is against lefties. He’s been substantially less lucky against righties. He has more power against righties and sees one tonight that can barely reach 70 MPH. More like 83, but you get it. Colon doesn’t belong in the majors and his .381 wOBA against both sides of the plate proved it. The Red Sox hold the highest projected total on tonight’s slate and need to be played in all formats. Devers is a great way to get exposure and will get a guaranteed RBI opportunity or two.

Outfield

Mookie Betts FD 4600 DK 5800
Opponent - TEX (Bartolo Colon) Park - TEX
FD - 15.55 DK - 11.85
J.D. Martinez FD 4400 DK 5400
Opponent - TEX (Bartolo Colon) Park - TEX
FD - 15.05 DK - 11.29
Andrew Benintendi FD 4000 DK 4700
Opponent - TEX (Bartolo Colon) Park - TEX
FD - 13.07 DK - 9.96

We kick off the outfield with our favorite offense of the night. Bartolo Colon has had some impressive performances to start the season, but he’s riding luck and his disgusting peripherals will tell you all you need to know. He posted a .381 wOBA against both sides of the plate in ‘17 and allowed 28 homers in nearly 140 innings. Betts and Martinez are obviously the two best options, but Benintendi isn’t at all far behind against righties. Fenway Park is a good one, but Globe Life in Arlington is just a tad bit better for run production. They’re also guaranteed to see 9 innings of at-bats. I’ll have 3 of 4 Red Sox in most of my lineups and am willing to bet against Bartolo Colon at age 44. I guess I’m just making up for me ignoring Hanley and Nunez, but all of these guys are very much in play. Let’s look at some solo options.

Matt Joyce FD 2400 DK 3100
Opponent - BAL (Andrew Cashner) Park - OAK
FD - 10.93 DK - 8.17

We looked at a few A’s bats earlier and skipped over a few that are very much in play. At shortstop, I love the power upside of Semien. Even here in the outfield, Khris Davis can always hit 2 out. We’ll instead focus on Matt Joyce, who mashes righties and should be in the leadoff spot. He’s held a .350+ wOBA against right-handers for years now and is going to see a minimum of 5 at-bats. Andrew Cashner and his .383 wOBA alpine right up with his ‘17 peripherals and it’s fair to say that’s the pitcher he is. The Athletics are a chippy offense vs righties and should be paid attention to against a gas can like Cashner.

Jorge Soler FD 3100 DK 3800
Opponent - DET (Francisco Liriano) Park - KC
FD - 9.72 DK - 7.3

If you’re looking for a 1-off power bat, Jorge Soler deserves a look. He’s expensive, and rightfully so with his recent surge of production. He’s been one of the more consistent outfielders in all of baseball and the power has followed. Against lefties, Soler is currently sitting at a .529 wOBA with a 54% hard contact rate. That number is guaranteed to come down, but I think Soler ends up settling as elite against lefties. He’s rounding into the hitter we’ve been waiting for and will be a mainstay as the two-hitter in front of Mike Moustakas. As for tonight, he sees a homer-prone left-hander in Francisco Liriano. The same Liriano that sported a .374 wOBA against righties when he was a whole year younger. Soler is an excellent option in all formats and a guy I’ll have plenty of exposure to. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment down below with any questions or thoughts!

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