Daily Fantasy NASCAR Race Preview & Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - Geico 500

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Geico 500

Talladega Superspeedway - Talladega, AL
Track - 2.66 Mile Superspeedway(Restrictor Plate)

Kyle Busch was at it again last week at Richmond, this time from outside the Top 30 starting positions. He raced his way through the field and into the Top 10 within 36 laps and with a few fast pit stops late in the race was able to get out front, lead 32 laps, and win his third straight race of the season. It also extended his lead in the overall NASCAR standings to 56 points over second place Joey Logano and his average DraftKings points per race lead to 6.5 over Kevin Harvick who also has three wins on the season.

This week the Monster Energy Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway for the second restrictor plate race of the season. That means almost anyone can win, especially with Dale Earnhardt Jr. retired, and shifts our fantasy strategy from dominator points to place differential. No driver has led 100 laps and only five drivers have led 50 or more laps in the last six races here at Talladega. On the flip side, there have been 7 or more drivers to pick up double-digit place differential in each of the last six races with 12 or more to do so in four of the last six races. One other interesting nugget to consider is that the winner here at Talladega has come from a Top 10 starting position in six of the last seven races.

With all of that in mind, let's dig in and take a look at some of the race trends and pre-qualifying targets.

Last Six Winners at Talladega Superspeedway

• 2017 Fall - Brad Keselowski(started 6th, led 7 laps, 54.75 DK points)
• 2017 Spring - Ricky Stenhouse Jr.(started 1st, led 14 laps, 52 DK points)
• 2016 Fall - Joey Logano(started 16th, led 45 laps, 73.75 DK points)
• 2016 Spring - Brad Keselowski(started 7th, led 46 laps, 64 DK points)
• 2015 Fall - Joey Logano(started 10th, led 20 laps, 61 DK points)
• 2015 Spring - Dale Earnhardt Jr.(started 4th, led 67 laps, 66.75 DK points)

Top 5 Current Track History at Talladega Superspeedway

We have a bit of a different look to the current track history fantasy ranks this week. Gray Gaulding leads the way with two Talladega races under his belt last season where he has started 37th and 39th with finishes of 20th and 9th. This is where the place differential on plate tracks is key as he leads with an average of 56.3 DraftKings points per race. Ty Dillon in his rookie season was also impressive starting 28th and 25th in the two races last year with finishes of 13th and 11th for a +29 place differential and an average of 50.1 DraftKings points per race. With a new ride in 2018, Aric Almirola is having a very good start with eight Top 20's and three Top 10's and now comes to one of his best tracks where he has finished Top 10 in three straight races and has an average of 47.4 DraftKings points per race over the last two years(four races). David Ragan has also taken advantage of the wild card nature of Talladega with back to back Top 10 finishes and over the past two years has a whopping +64 place differential. Rounding out the Top 5 in the current track history department is Brad Keselowski who has won two of the last four races here while leading 174 laps and if not for an engine failure in the fall 2016 race he would be much higher on this list.

Top 5 Career Track History at Talladega Superspeedway

Looking at the career track history ranks sorted by average finish, Ty Dillon leads the way but has just two races under his belt. Behind him is last years Spring winner, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, who has five Top 10 finishes in nine career races here at Dega. Then we have Brad Keselowski who leads all active drivers with five career wins and 11 Top 10's in 18 career starts. In fact, between Brad and his teammate Joey Logano they have won four of the last five Talladega race. Watch out for Penske Racing this weekend. Rounding out the Top 5 is Kevin Harvick who has raced here 34 times in his career with one win and 14 Top 10 finishes.

Top 5 Current Track Type History(Plate Tracks)

Looking at the combined fantasy results from plate tracks from 2017 and 2018, Aric Almirola tops the list as he finished Top 5 in his three races last season and was on his way to winning the Daytona 500 this February before being bumped by the eventual winner, Austin Dillon. Another big factor in that rank has to do with his +74 place differential. When it comes to average finish over the last five plate races, Paul Menard is up next(7.0) with finishes of 5th, 9th, 3rd, 12th, 6th. He is always a top value target at these two tracks. We talked about Gray Gaulding here at Talladega and he also shows up on the track type list as he raced the Daytona 500 this February finishing 20th after starting 34th. All about that place differential for the value plays. Also with a small sample size, Darrell Wallace Jr. has been consistent with a 15th at Daytona last summer(started 31st) and runner-up at this years Daytona 500(started 7th). Looking at A.J. Allmendinger's results on plate tracks, the one thing to note is the results have been much better at Daytona(Top 10 in last three races) than here at Talladega.

Top 5 Current Form (Last Six Races)

With his third win in a row, Kyle Busch has not only extended his lead in the NASCAR standings but has also opened a huge lead when looking at average DraftKings scoring. Stewart-Haas teammates Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick are up next with Bowyer taking over the #2 spot with some tremendous consistency lately. He won Martinsville and has five Top 10's in his last six races with an 11th at Fontana. After those three drivers, there is a big gap down to Denny Hamlin in fourth who has a 12.2 average finish and Kyle Larson in 5th who has a 13.5 average finish over the last six races. We will see if the plate track helps bring the field closer together after this week.

Pre Qualifying/Practice Targets

Brad Keselowski(DK-$10,700 FD-$12,100) & Joey Logano(DK-$10,300 FD-$12,000)

The Penske duo come at a high price this week but to say they are not only good at Talladega but also on plate tracks, in general, is an understatement. Together they have won four of the last five races here at Talladega and five of the last 10 races on the plate tracks. With all the value that will pop up with place differential, stacking these two together in a lineup should be no problem at all this week.

Aric Almirola(DK-$8,100 FD-$8,800)

Almirola is #1 in my current pre-qualifying/practice model and for good reason. He has finished Top 5 twice and Top 10 in three of his last four races here at Talladega and has been excellent overall on plate tracks in general as he has the second-best average finish(10.8) over the last two years.

Gray Gaulding(DK-$5,100 FD-$5,000) & Cole Whitt(DK-$4,800 FD-$5,000)

Both these drivers can be considered punt plays if they qualify outside of the Top 30 like they have routinely done. Gaulding has been terrific here for the price finishing 20th and 9th last year while picking up 40 place differential points. Whitt has raced here three times in the last two years with finishes of 18th, 16th, and 34th with a +44 place differential.

Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.

If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.