Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/9/18

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Pitcher

Max Scherzer FD 11100 DK 12600
Opponent - ATL (Julio Teheran) Park - WSH
FD - 45.21 DK - 25.1

Welcome to MLB Monday! We’re going to kick this article off with two of the five best pitchers on this planet. Max Scherzer is the lead dog and who the MLB optimizer prefers on both FD and DK. He gets another match-up with the Braves, who are fresh out of Coors Field. He faced these same Braves last time out and disappointed. His defense screwed up and he gave up 3 unearned runs to start, and it just unwound from there. His strikeouts were still there and he walked away with seven in just five innings of work. He’ll now get to host the Braves in Nationals Parks, where he’s a whole lot more comfortable. He’s held a 10+ K/9 and boasts a combined wOBA under .240. Dominant is the only word to describe Max Scherzer. Outside of Freddie Freeman, this Braves lineup is weak. They’ll also strikeout a lot more this season than they did last. Scherzer is expensive, but he should go lower owned because of that last start and has just as much upside and safety as ever.

Noah Syndergaard FD 10800 DK 12300
Opponent - MIA (Jose Urena) Park - MIA
FD - 40.66 DK - 22.6

For me, Scherzer and Syndergaard are equal. I have both of them in 50% of lineups as of now and will likely lean one way by the time lock comes. He's actually been somewhat meh this year, allowing six runs combined in his first two starts. His strikeout stuff has still been there and as someone who watched both starts, he seems fine. He seems a lot better than when he was struggling last season for many different reasons. These first two games were just variance and we're still looking at the elite Noah Syndergaard that can put up seven innings and ten strikeouts without blinking. This match-up against the Marlins couldn't be any better. The Marlins are projected at just 3.02 runs, which is easily the lowest on the day. They're expected to put up just two or three lefties and Syndergaard strikes out righties at a 30.7% clip. I don't think you can go wrong with either of these guys and it's just a matter of fitting either. On DraftKings, you'll either have to fade one or completely fade Coors. That makes it a very interesting slate. Let's get to the hitters.

Early- Chris Archer

For DraftKings starting pitcher two I honestly think you can consider Jon Gray even in Coors. The matchup is great in that the Padres suck. He's a high K pitcher and the price is slightly depressed because of the ballpark. He's a big money line favorite as well.

First Base/Catcher

Ian Desmond FD 3900 DK 5300
Opponent - SD (Clayton Richard) Park - COL
FD - 13.05 DK - 10.02

First things first, Ian Desmond was terrible in 2017. This is a guy that’s been solid for about 10 years and last season was more than a surprise. He’s fully expected to bounce back this year and it’s already started. The Rockies now draw a match-up against Clayton Richard in Coors Field. We’ll get to Richard later, but just know he’s an atrocious lefty that is going to struggle to get through four or five innings. When Desmond is playing well, he destroys left-handed pitchers. He sported a .350+ wOBA multiple times and has eclipsed 25 home runs before. He’s now in Coors Field and hitting between Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez. Ian Desmond is the top play at first base and it just comes down to whether or not you can afford him. Don’t worry, we’ll get to plenty more Rockies bats.

Paul Goldschmidt FD 4300 DK 4800
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - SF
FD - 12.09 DK - 9.05

If you want to get away from Coors Field, I love the righties in this Arizona Diamondbacks lineup. They get to face off with Derek Holland, who was one of the absolute worst pitchers in the league in 2017. In over 100 innings against right-handers, Holland sported a .408 wOBA and a whopping 26 home runs. My lord. Goldschmidt has always been a lefty masher and is one of the best in all of baseball. In '17, he held a .407 wOBA against lefties and a .280 ISO. He also hit 36 home runs, with just as much power away from Chase Field as in it. He's more expensive than Desmond on FD and a lot cheaper on DK. In cash games, I go with the cheaper guy. In a tournament, I probably go with the more expensive play as the ownership should be way less. Goldschmidt is elite in all formats and I love stacking these D-Backs righties.

Danny Valencia is way too cheap and makes sense if you need to punt. So is Eric Hosmer if you think Jon Gray struggles in Coors Field.

Early- Josh Bell

Second Base

DJ LeMahieu FD 4200 DK 5000
Opponent - SD (Clayton Richard) Park - COL
FD - 13.24 DK - 10.34

Second base is a pretty interesting one tonight. On the high-end, we have Altuve, Dozier, and LeMahieu. You can play all three, but LeMahieu is easily the favorite. Playing in Coors Field, this is already the second Rockies bat we're touching on. LeMahieu has always been a lot better against lefty bats and gets a brutal one tonight. In 2017, LeMahieu sported a .406 wOBA that reached a .444 in Coors Field. He’s not typically a power hitter, but Coors Field turns him into a mini one. As for the match-up, it’s couldn’t be much better. Clayton Richard is a southpaw that has been absolutely terrible against opposing righties. In 145 innings last season, Richard allowed 23 home runs and a .377 wOBA. That’s with most games in Petco Park. The Rockies are projected to score well over five runs and it’s hard to disagree. LeMahieu is the safest option at second and like the rest of these bats just comes down to price.

Carlos Asuaje FD 2100 DK 3300
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - COL
FD - 7.6 DK - 5.89

This is a very easy play if you're looking to punt second base. I know Jon Gray is a good pitcher, but this is Coors Field and the Padres are expected to put up 4.15 runs. Asuaje is actually better than you might think, sporting a .331 wOBA in 100+ at-bats. If you haven't been playing MLB DFS for a while, Coors Field is such an insane power boost that the prices usually come with it. It's going to inflate totals all year long and even more so when the summer months hit. The Padres are slightly priced up on DK, but still way too cheap on FD. If you need to punt, go ahead and keep the exposure in Coors Field with the Padres and Carlos Asuaje. The Padres are facing a very good pitcher in Jon Gray, but he is not going to pitch a clean slate in this ballpark.

Early- Ben Zobrist

Shortstop

Trevor Story FD 4100 DK 4400
Opponent - SD (Clayton Richard) Park - COL
FD - 15.03 DK - 11.31

Trevor Story is a guy you can count on being in this article when the Rockies face a lefty. He’s not at the level of Nolan Arenado, but he’s also not far off. In 2017, he’s plastered lefties to the tune of a .420 wOBA and .353 ISO. At home, that went up to a .448 wOBA. Those are just insane numbers for a shortstop. He’s the top play on this slate at the position and the price reflects it. His match-up, Clayton Richard, is the guy I just mentioned with a .377 wOBA against opposing righties. He’s only getting older and doesn’t look to have gotten any better so far this season. His arsenal is disastrous for Coors Field and I doubt he makes it out of the fourth. Story is one of the top candidates to hit a homer tonight and a must if you’re stacking the Rockies. Good luck to Clayton Richard.

Manny Machado FD 4300 DK 4500
Opponent - TOR (J.A. Happ) Park - BAL
FD - 12.35 DK - 9.39

If Story doesn't fit your mold, Manny Machado is always in play against an average lefty. J.A. Happ is a guy we've been targeting righties with for quite some time now and he was actually better than ever in 2017. His peripherals strongly disagree and we've already begun seeing some regression this season. Camden Yards is a brutal ballpark to pitch in and Machado held a .361 wOBA there last season. As for Machado, he held a .342 wOBA over the last two years against southpaws. He's expensive, just like Story, but will be lesser owned and is in a phenomenal spot.

Scott Kingery is a great option if he sticks in the heart of the order against a weak lefty in Cody Reed.

Early- Addison Russell

Third Base

Nolan Arenado FD 5400 DK 5700
Opponent - SD (Clayton Richard) Park - COL
FD - 16.75 DK - 12.62

Now for the best Rockies bat of all, Nolan Arenado. Many would argue Arenado is the top bat in this slate and I wouldn’t say they’re wrong. I’ll personally take Harper 1 on 1, but Arenado is the guy I have on more teams due to roster construction and my Rockies stacks. He’s a top 3 MLB hitter against lefties, posting a .534 (.539 at home) wOBA against opposing lefties. Yes, that’s supposed to be a 5. Arenado is going to demolish Clayton Richard and is tied in Vegas with Harper for the HR prop (+200). Clayton Richard and his .377 wOBA vs righties should be a disaster here and Vegas has them projected at 5.5+. You can stack everyone in this order, but the righties take precedent in cash games. We also have two expensive pitchers on this slate, so it’s not going to be an easy one. Let’s touch on a pivot from Nolan Arenado.

Matt Carpenter FD 3700 DK 3300
Opponent - MIL (Jhoulys Chacin) Park - STL
FD - 11.28 DK - 8.42

We haven't touched on the Cardinals yet, but all of the lefties are very much in play. The big problem here is they are only expected to toss three of them out there. It's why I'm considering Jhoulys Chacin as an SP2 on DK in tourneys. With that being said, I'm all over the Cardinals left-handers. Starting with the best of all, Matt Carpenter who demolishes righties. In 2017, he sported a .378 wOBA with a 46% hard contact rate. Chacin on the other hand, allowed a .338 wOBA against lefties in '17 and was much worse away from Petco Park. Arenado is the easy way to pay up, but Carpenter can hit a homer with ease and is priced pretty low on both sites.

Early- Matt Duffy

Outfield

Bryce Harper FD 5300 DK 5800
Opponent - ATL (Julio Teheran) Park - WSH
FD - 13.97 DK - 10.4

If you're looking for just one bat on this slate, Bryce Harper is my favorite. I know there's a game in Coors Field, so it's hard to not lean on Nolan Arenado against a lefty. It's just hard to go elsewhere when a guy has 6 home runs in 7 games. He's also now facing the guy he's had the most success against in all of baseball. I'm not a huge BVP fan, but 18 for 39 with 8 home runs is not something to ignore. If you have been playing DFS a while, think Goldschmidt against Lincecum. Harper is going to obliterate every righty in baseball and it's pretty obvious that he sees Teheran very well. There's no point of going and looking at the numbers of Bryce Harper. He sported a .440+ wOBA against righties in '17 and is only getting better at just 25 years old. He's expensive but is the lead candidate on the day for an HR right next to Arenado. Harper is an elite play in all formats if you can find a way to fit him. Personally, I don't think I can, even as my favorite bat.

A.J. Pollock FD 3900 DK 4800
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - SF
FD - 11.81 DK - 9.09
Chris Owings FD 3200 DK 3800
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - SF
FD - 9.42 DK - 7.34

I would have liked to touch on a few more of these Diamondbacks, but they don't have enough righties. If only these were the days of Yasmany Tomas and Brandon Drury. We still have Owings and Pollock, though, so I guess that's nice. Pollock is the better option of the two and is a lot better against lefties. In '17, he sported a .356 wOBA and a 38% hard contact rate. He's right behind Goldy in the order and should have more than enough RBI opportunities. Owings isn't a very good hitter overall, but he's hitting behind Goldy and Pollock and is facing a guy that's allowed a .400+ wOBA against opposing right-handers. Both of these guys are fairly priced on both sites and I'm fine with them in either format. Personally, A.J. Pollock is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate and I'll have him with Goldy a ton.

Dexter Fowler FD 2800 DK 3100
Opponent - MIL (Jhoulys Chacin) Park - STL
FD - 11.62 DK - 8.81

We'll close it off with another Cardinal lefty. We were on Matt Carpenter at 3B and this is a great guy to pair with him. Fowler has always been great against righties and even with an off-year in 2017, he sported a .368 wOBA. He's an HR and SB threat, with 20 SB and 31 HR over the last two seasons. Miller Park is friendlier than Busch Stadium and this Cards team is projected to score over 4.30 runs by Vegas. He's extremely cheap on both sites and can be played in every format. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment below if you have any questions or comments! Thanks a lot!

Early- Ian Happ, Corey Dickerson, Kevin Kiermaier, Kyle Schwarber

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