Daily Fantasy NASCAR Race Preview & Picks for DraftKings - Pennzoil 400

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Pennzoil 400

Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Track - 1.5-Mile D Shaped Oval Intermediate

Things went pretty much as planned last week as Kevin Harvick continued to dominate the track but this time picked up the win. It was a very emotional win that was 17 years ago he picked up his first career win in Atlanta as he took over for Dale Earnhardt who was involved in a fatal the crash the week before and like he did back then, celebrated by waving three fingers our the window.

This week the Monster Energy Cup Series travels across the country to kick off the West Coast swing starting at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Pennzoil 400. It will be the second straight mile and half track but the comparisons end there as Atlanta is one of the oldest abrasive surfaces on the circuit which destroys tires in a hurry. Las Vegas tends to have more grip also has its own uniqueness with the bumps. The other thing to note after last week's race was the performance of the Ford camp which finished 1, 2, 3 and had five of the Top 10 finishers while the new Chevrolet ZL1 appears to be a work in progress as Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott were the top finishers in 9th and 10th and Chevy's had just three inside the Top 15 on Sunday. It will be something to monitor moving forward.

From a fantasy perspective, one thing is the same. We are looking to build a core around dominator points, especially if the race goes like last year where stage racing was introduced. There was only one driver(Aric Almirola) who picked up double-digit place differential points and when looking at dominators, only five drivers had double-digit fast laps and just two with 50+ laps led. Be sure to check out my video and cheatsheet for all the data following qualifying and practices.

Let's now take a look at some of the trends going into this weeks race.

Last Six Winners at Las Vegas

• Martin Truex Jr. (started 2nd, led 150 laps)
• Brad Keselowski (started 4th, led 24 laps)
• Kevin Harvick (started 18th, led 142 laps)
• Brad Keselowski (started 2nd, led 53 laps)
• Matt Kenseth (started 18th, led 42 laps)
• Tony Stewart (started 7th, led 27 laps)

Top 5 Current Track History at Las Vegas

Over the last two years here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, no one has been as good as Brad Keselowski. He finished 5th last year and won the race in 2016 good for a 3.0 average finish and an average of 80.6 DraftKings points per race. Martin Truex Jr. has not been as consistent but sits second in average DraftKings points per race as he won last year, led 150 laps and scored 115.5 DK points after finishing 11th in 2016. Jimmie Johnson has been very consistent here at Las Vegas throughout his career and recently despite not winning here since 2010. He finished 11th here last year but picked up five place differential points, 31 fast laps, and 19 laps led(58.25 DK points). He came in third in 2016 after starting 11th, picked up 37 fast laps, 76 laps led(86.5 DK points) which ranks him third in average points per race over that span. Like his teammate Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano has finished the last two races here at Vegas inside the Top 5. He didn't quite have the speed last year with just 15 fast laps and five laps led but in 2016 he recorded 37 fast laps and 74 laps led for 80.5 DK points. Team Penske should be at or near the top of your radar again this week. Hometown driver, Kyle Busch, was excellent here in 2016 finishing 4th after starting 23rd and after leading 38 laps finished with 75 DK points(3rd most) but struggled last year finishing 22nd after starting inside the Top 10.

Top 5 Career Track History at Las Vegas

Joey Logano has the best career average finish(10.0) here in Las Vegas but has yet to enter Victory Lane something Jimmie Johnson has done four times in his career although it has been eight years for him. He has also been very consistent over the past six years when analyzing the fantasy numbers as he leads all drivers with an average of 57.9 DK points per race. I talked about Brad Keselowski above and since finishing 32nd back in 2012, has finished 3rd, 1st, 7th, 1st, and 3rd last year but really hasn't been a dominator in that time as he led just 187 laps in those five races(race-high 89 last year). Martin Truex Jr. got his first win here at Vegas last year and dominated with 150 laps led which makes up 95% of his career laps led here as he trends in the right direction. Paul Menard sits in the #5 spot when looking at average DK points per race over the past six here at Vegas as he has three Top 10's, five Top 15's and has finished each of those six races inside the Top 20 with +51 place differential overall. His value will be heavily dependant on qualifying.

Top 5 Current Track Type History

It's pretty obvious who is the top dominator target for each of the 12 mile and a half intermediate races. Martin Truex Jr. was absolutely dominant last year on these tracks winning seven times, finishing each of the 12 races inside the Top 10 and he also led 1,209 laps for an average of 95.5 DK points per race. Outside of the Las Vegas race last year, Kevin Harvick was also very good on the mile and a half tracks with one win(Texas), 11 Top 10 finishes, and 729 laps led. Over the last two years, he has also finished Top 10 in 22 of 25 races and he also picked up a win at the first 1.5-mile track this season. Kyle Larson took a big step forward on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2017 with eight Top 10's including four runner-ups for an average finish of 12.9 after posting a 17.8 average finish in 2016. Kyle Busch only finished half the 1.5-mile races inside the Top 10 but he also led 509 laps which helped him to the fourth-best average DK points per race(52.8) for the season. He started on the pole last week and even with some issues throughout the race ended up 7th. In his second season in the Cup series, Chase Elliott impressed on the 1.5-mile tracks with nine Top 10's and finished 5th in average DK points per race despite two finished outside the Top 25.

Top 5 Current Form (last two races)

It's early in the season and we have seen races on two completely different tracks so I won't be weighing form at this point but it's always interesting to see who start the season off hot. Kevin Harvick had a rough start at Daytona(31st) but dominated Atlanta to lead the series in average DK points per race. Ryan Blaney has been consistent finishing 7th at the Daytona 500 and also led 118 laps and then finished 12th in Atlanta after starting 25th. The combinations of finishes, laps led and place differential has him sitting not only second in points but also second in average DK points per race. Martin Truex Jr. sits 7th in NASCAR points but with 36 place differential points, sits third in average DK points per race. Denny Hamlin is the only driver to finish both races inside the Top 5 and also has 41 place differential points for an average of 54.5 DK points per race. Austin Dillon won the Daytona 500 and while many thought he would flop on the first 1.5-mile track, he finished 14th with 11 place differential points and sits 5th in average DK points per race.

 

Pre-Qualifying/Practice Targets

Martin Truex Jr.

He will likely be the most expensive option this week and it makes sense with his dominance on 1.5-mile tracks. Las Vegas was one of those tracks last year as he broke through with his first win here and dominated with 150 laps led. He is my top dominator pick pre-qualifying/practice.

Brad Keselowski

Brad has been extremely consistent here over the past five years with two wins, four Top 5's, and leads all drivers with an average of 80.6 DK points per race.

Paul Menard

It will definitely depend on qualifying but Paul Menard has been very consistent here at Las Vegas finishing inside the Top 20 in eight straight races with three Top 10's. Over the last six races here, he sits 5th in average DK points per race and will likely come in the low $7K range this week.

 

Weekly YouTube Picks Video

 

Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. 

 

If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.