Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 12/10/17

More Sunday Funday! As of this writing our optimal lineups for Saturday night are the stone cold nuts, so I'm going to pretend like the night is over and I won a million dollars. Go me! Let's keep riding what I assume will be an insane hot streak, in spite of the fact that I only have 3 players going so far.

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Point guard

Emmanuel Mudiay FD - $4300 DK - $4400
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 24.16 DK - 25.11
Mudiay is simply underpriced relative to his role on Denver right now, and while it's never entirely comfortable playing someone off the bench for 50/50s, mudiay could be an exception there. The minutes increase against Orlando came largely because Jamal Murray tweaked his ankle, but Murray was available to return and never made his way back on to the court. As of this writing Murray is listed as questionable, but even if he plays I think Mudiay will be relatively highly owned in a match-up with the Pacers, who have played the 11th fastest PACE this season.

Jeff Teague FD - $7000 DK - $6500
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 34.67 DK - 34.9
I like Teague as a sneaky value play for a couple of reasons today. First of all, he's underpriced. Like most of the Minnesota starters, my best guess is that Thibs would prefer to run him out there for 37+ minutes per game in close match-ups. If this is true, I'd guess Teague should be in line for a 5% price increase. Nothing special in a vacuum - but then you get the match-up. Dallas has played slowly this season, sure, but they've allowed the 7th most fantasy points per game in spite of playing the league's 6 slowest PACE. They've lost their best point guard defender in Dennis Smith Jr., and are left with defensive black holes Yogi Ferrell and JJ Barea. I suspect Minnesota will lean heavily on Teauge for ball handling duties, and I love his floor here.

If you play the early slates, you can consider De'Aaron Fox and Kyrie Irving, but I'd still probably play the above guys for the all day slate.

Shooting Guard

J.J. Redick FD - $5400 DK - $5300
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 27.92 DK - 29.54
E'Twaun Moore FD - $4600 DK - $4600
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 23.18 DK - 23.28
I suspect you'll see pretty solid ownership between the two shooting guards facing one another on the main slate tonight. Both teams are tied for the 8th most fantasy points per game allowed to opposing shooting guards, and both Moore and Redick are slightly too cheap for their current opportunity. Moore has been given the keys to the small forward kingdom in New Orleans - a welcome relief for the Pelicans, who have never been able to satisfactorily fill this role. He's playing a 35-39 minute rotation, and has paid 5x points per dollar or better in 4 of his last 5 games, including 2 games with significantly higher upside than that. Redick's role is similarly secure in Philly, particularly if the Sixers remained short handed in the back court. He'd likely draw Holiday on defense, which would be a difficult assignment for the converted point guard. I love both of these guys as high floor options with upside.

Victor Oladipo FD - $9600 DK - $9000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 43.66 DK - 43.68
What the heck to make of Oladipo? He's finally living up to his draft pedigree, albeit over a precious small sample size. Since missing the Boston game Oladipo has averaged 35 minutes, 6 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.8 blocks, and 2.5 steals per game - or a tidy 50 fantasy points per game. And that includes the blowout of the Knicks where he played just 30 minutes. When he plays his minutes, 'Dipo seems like he's on lock for 20+ shots a game, and with that kind of usage it's going to be tough for the defensively challenged Nuggets to keep him off the board. He's awfully expensive for what he's provided historically, but if this is why Indiana traded for him, who are we to argue? He seems like a totally reasonable cash game option for tonight.

Small forward

Robert Covington FD - $6800 DK - $6200
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 36.59 DK - 36.28
Covington draws a plus match-up with E'Twaun Moore - a converted shooting guard that should have difficulty with Covington's length. Ro-Co has been a little boom or bust recently, which makes sense given the fact that he's a scoring dependent small forward on a team with two huge usage guys in Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Embiid draws the one negative match-up of anyone on the 76ers - the Pels are the 7th toughest team for opposing centers to score on this season, which should free up extra usage for other 76ers. The small forward position on the main slate is also exceedingly shallow, making Covington that much more attractive.

EDIT: After this article was posted, Covington was declared doubtful for Sunday's game. If he can't give it a go, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot would likely get the start and would be an excellent punt option.

Courtney Lee FD - $6000 DK - $5800
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 29.71 DK - 29.62
Lee's price is as high as I can remember it being, but it makes sense. With Tim Hardaway Jr. out of the picture, Lee's minutes and usage have both gone up considerably. The Knicks are extremely low on guys who can put shots into the air, and given that Kristaps is banged up himself Lee is just one of the last men standing. The Pacers have been pretty tough on opposing small forwards this season, but let's do the classic Sunday break down of your other options:

Jimmy Butler at $9,000 against Dallas' best defender in Barnes.
Barnes against a tough defender in Butler.
Taurean Prince, who's priced like he plays 35 minutes but now plays 28.
Semi-hurt Jaylen Brown in a slow match-up with Detroit.

Aaaaand, that's pretty much all the starters. The position is a mess. Take the safety where you can get it.

Keep an eye on the Bojan Bogdanovic situation. If he's 100% healthy he's a solid high floor option for the early slate, but if he sits it should free up a ton of minutes and a reasonable amount of minutes on the Pacers' side of things.

Power forward

Taj Gibson FD - $5700 DK - $6100
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 30.12 DK - 29.66
I guess I just don't understand why the sites refuse to raise Gibson's prices, but I'm not complaining on a slate like this. Gibson's on 3 straight games of 5x points per dollar on these prices, including going off for 44 fantasy points in his last game against the Clippers. Dallas has been basically a league average match-up for opposing power forwards this season, but Gibson presents a unique package of strength and athleticism that should give them fits. In their other meeting this season Gibson abused them for a 12/10/4/2/2 line in just 30 minutes. Dirk just can't hang with him at this stage in his career, and I love Gibson in all formats.

Ben Simmons FD - $10300 DK - $10100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 51.73 DK - 52.46
Oooh, I don't think I've gotten a chance to write up Simmons this season, so I'm pumped to do so here. The thing about these young players who put up huge totals quickly is that there is often irrational exuberance for them. Everyone wants to discover the next LeBron or Durant, and since daily fantasy prices follow public sentiment to some extent, young stars tend to get priced on their upside rather than their mean performance. Simmons, to me, is no exception. That being said - it's hard to imagine a match-up for him more likely to help him fulfill on that huge potential. The Pelicans have been terrible against opposing power forwards this season, but that doesn't totally matter for Simmons, who is really a power forward in size only. But it does beg the question - just who is supposed to cover him here? Is it Anthony Davis - aka Glass Joe? I think not. Even at full health it'd be tough for Davis to chase Simmons all over the court. It obviously isn't Boogie - he'll have his hands full with Embiid. So then who? E'Twaun Moore? Jrue Holiday? Give me a break. Simmons goes off in this game, or I'll eat my hat.

Also considered: Anthony Davis, but only as an upside play if you think he'll be out there for his full minutes. It's a truly great match-up for him here, and it wouldn't shock me to see him put up huge totals. I also don't mind Kenneth Faried, but it's tough to imagine playing him over a guy like Gibson at a similar price point if I am going after safety.

Center

Okay, center warrants a different sort of writeup since it's such a weird position. Let's go through this game by game.

TOR-SAC: No centers that you can consider for cash games.
BOS-DET: Two slow teams that play great defense, and two appropriately priced centers since they've played consistent minutes and provided consistent production. No thanks.
IND-DEN: An overpriced Myles Turner at $7,900 since he's been playing just 31 minutes. No. And then on Denver... Mason Plumlee? No.
DAL-MIN: Only Karl-Anthony Towns plays any minutes and qualifies at Center in this game, and he's got the same issues as Horford and Drummond. Still worth consideration, but do you really want to spend $9,600 on a guy who scored 32 fantasy points in this match-up earlier this season? I say no.
PHI-NO: Boogie vs. Embiid. Insanely fun match-up. Both are expensive relative to current production, and Embiid has arguably the worst match-up of anyone on his team. Still, this seems like just the challenge that might get him up for a huge game. As for Cousins - he's at his maximum price, and Davis looks to play here. Still, Philly has been a top 10 match-up for opposing centers. This might be where you have to land.
ATL-NY: Kanter? No. On ATL, only Miles Plumlee plays more than 10 mins at center, and he plays 12 minutes a game. No.

So... are we forced to pay up for Embiid or Cousins here? It looks like it. But that makes for some very weird lineups, since it's rarely correct to pay up in less than a plus match-up. Sunday basketball, everyone!

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