Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/5/17

It's a pretty big slate of Sunday basketball, with the NBA doing its best to cluster games on a day when everyone is watching football while having 2 game days on other nights of the week. I'll never understand it, but that doesn't mean I won't enjoy it! DFS basketball is quite simply my favorite DFS sport by a country mile, and I'm prepared to nerd out even if only a handful of diehards even care. So, let's do this thing!

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Point guard

Russell Westbrook FD - $10400 DK - $10600
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 50.27 DK - 53.64
How cheap is too cheap for Russell Westbrook, a guy we were happy to pay $13k for in some cases last season? I think we're skirting that edge here. Westbrook's usage is as low as it's been since KD was in town in the 2013-2014 season, but he's still tied for the 9th highest usage in the league. So where has the fantasy production gone? Let's start listing a few reasons (making some excuses), shall we? First, the ugly bits. Westbrook is shooting eight fewer shots per game this season in spite of only playing 1 minute less per season. That's really bad for his fantasy purposes, and can be easily explained by the arrival of two usage giants in Melo and George. But that doesn't explain all of it. More interesting to me are the decrease in foul shots. Westbrook's free throw attempts per game are lower than they have been since the 09-10 campaign, and while it makes sense that he is scaling it back a bit given his supporting cast, that doesn't seem sustainable to me. And in spite of this general weirdness, Russ is still averaging about 4.7x points per dollar on these prices, meaning he's generally a fine value in this price range. Portland is basically a league average match-up by the numbers (DvP for PG, PACE, etc), but Westbrook seems to rise to the occasion when playing other big name PGs. Throw in the fact that Russ is still 3rd in the NBA in time of possession per game, and I love his floor for cash games here.

Kyrie Irving FD - $8400 DK - $8500
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 40.25 DK - 40.43
Speaking of guys in new situations, I'm kinda loving me some Kyrie Irving right now. Kyrie has averaged roughly 5x points per dollar on these prices this season, and unlike Westbrook, he seems to becoming more and more comfortable in his new role every day. His per minute stats have increased across the board, and he seems to be a lot more motivated on the defensive end, sitting among the league leaders with 2.6 steals per game. His minutes have been scattered recently thanks to odd game scripts and blowouts, and it hasn't mattered - he's scored 40 or more fantasy points in each of his last 5 games. Orlando is rolling out a truly motley crew of point guards at the moment, and none of the Shelvin Mack/Elfrid Payton if he's healthy/Jonathan Simmons gang really has any chance to keep pace here. Orlando is playing the 4th fastest pace in the league, and I love Irving considering all the extra opportunities that should afford him.

Mike James FD - $5100 DK - $5000
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 26.18 DK - 26.33
If you decide you want to save up a bit, why not consider Mike James? He's still too cheap, and you would have been thrilled with his performance in 2 of his last 3 games. Assuming he keeps the starting role he's probably more like a $5,500-$6,000 player in the modern DFS landscape, and getting savings like this looks pretty good when you have so many excellent big money options. San Antonio isn't a classically great match-up, but Patty Mills and Dejounte Murray are both sub-par defenders for the Spurs' standards, and I like James as an interesting value/upside pick for big tournaments.

Shooting Guard

Victor Oladipo FD - $7500 DK - $8200
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 37.28 DK - 37.91
Oladipo has looked equal parts amazing and awkward this season, but when he plays his minutes, things have landed firmly in the amazing camp. He's added 3 shots a game this season in spite of averaging fewer minutes, and tripled his free throw attempts per game up to 6. Most of all, he finally looks comfortable in the role we all sort of thought he'd fill as a highly touted prospect entering the draft - he's creating, getting into the lane, and shooting much better from everywhere on the court since defenses have to respect his dribble. For a little frame of reference, he's tied with LeBron for 10th in the league with a 30.2 usage rate this season. I love the match-up against the offense-first Hardaway, and love that Vegas is projecting this game as having the tightest overall spread on the day.

Andrew Wiggins FD - $6500 DK - $6800
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 32.79 DK - 33.34
I've been known to get Wiggy with it on more than one occasion, but I have to be honest with you here - I'm not in love with this play. When you sign up for a night with Andrew Wiggins you're basically hoping that he plays lots of minutes and his shot is falling. Well, Vegas has this projected as a relatively close game (MIN by -5.5), which bodes well for his minutes. Charlotte is without their 2 best wing defenders in MKG and Batum, which bodes will for his shot falling. The rest is up to destiny. Charlotte has been a slow team in the past, but they've actually played a top 11 PACE in the NBA this season, making this match-up a little better than it appears at first blush. I don't love his upside for tourneys, but Wiggins seems like a solid cash game inclusion if the price is right.

Tyreke Evans FD - $6100 DK - $5800
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 34.05 DK - 34.8
I was curious to see how Conley's return affected Evans' minutes, but the early returns look promising. Evans played 30 and 31 minutes in Conley's last two games, and given how effective he's been at running the point with the 2nd unit, it's hard to believe that will change in the near term. It's just... $6,100 for a bench guy? Is this really what looks like value in the current DFS landscape? I suppose it is. Evans' 27.0 usage rate is solid, and the Lakers are back to their old ones, playing bad defense while playing the league's 3rd fastest PACE. It probably goes without saying, but their second unit is even worse than their first, and I love Evans as an upside play. I'm not sure as of this writing how comfortable I'll feel slotting him into cash game lineups, though.

Small forward

Paul George FD - $7700 DK - $7200
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 38.09 DK - 38.6
Moving to OKC and joining forces with Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony somehow hasn't changed George's game much. He's shooting basically the same number of shots per minute and supplying nearly the same fantasy production on a minute less per game. His steals are up, his free throws are down, but it sort of comes out in the wash. And in case you hadn't noticed or weren't following last year, George is cheaper than he was last year. I am not sure if he'll continue to get this level of usage going forward, but honestly I expect his minutes to rise. In close games he's playing 37-39 minute rotations, meaning we could be looking at a huge price increase in the near future. In the meantime the combination of his minutes and his large role in the offense have me feeling very bullish here.

Joe Ingles FD - $5500 DK - $5000
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 27.31 DK - 27.57
Ingles quietly pays these prices every night, but his game is so boring and disjointed that no one seems to notice. He's paid 5x points per dollar (or just a hair under) in all but 1 game this season, offering solid contributions in a number of categories helping his floor to stay nice and high. The Rockets are favored here, and the total is relatively low, but that's as much a function of the Jazz's tortoise-like PACE than anything else. Since that's already baked into Ingles' price we can ignore it and focus instead on his match-up with with Rockets, who are basically a league average match-up in every sense of the word. Ingles seems like a good way to fill in a slot at a position that otherwise can be fairly uncertain.

Dillon Brooks FD - $3800 DK - $3900
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 21.05 DK - 20.75
So, do we believe in Dillon Broooks? He's awfully cheap now, especially given that he's been given Andrew Harrison's role in the starting lineup. Don't play him if he loses the starting job, but if he keeps it I think this price could go up 25%-40% in very short order. If that happens, we'll all be kicking ourselves that we missed out on playing him at sub $4k prices, as when his shot is falling we've seen him be capable of more than adequate production on these prices. I've maligned the Lakers enough in this post already, but let's just say that I think Brooks could do just fine here in a 35+ minute rotation.

Power forward

Kyle Kuzma FD - $5600 DK - $5600
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 33.65 DK - 34.23
So, that happened. Kuzma was overwhelming chalk in his last start, and proceeded to just go upside the head of Brooklyn to the tune of a 21/13 performance. And maybe that was an outlier, but did you see the part where he paid 5x points per dollar on these prices in the prior two games in an average of 24 minutes? Unlike most Lakers his minutes look eminently secure, and given their irrational hatred for Julius Randle I expect those minutes to be maintained here. It's far from an ideal match-up with Memphis, but honestly, does that matter on these prices? Kuzma seems like a great play in all formats.

LaMarcus Aldridge FD - $8000 DK - $8300
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 41.75 DK - 41.02
Aldridge has been a little up and down this season as he has tried to shoulder the burden of carrying the Spurs' offense, but generally speaking, he's been up to the task. The Suns have a rotating cast of poor or indifferent defenders at the power forward position, and this season they've combined the league's 2nd fastest PACE with the league's 5th worst defensive efficiency. I'm a little concerned that Aldridge loses his minutes to a blowout here, but I think the early season performance was legit. I think Aldridge has a fantastically high floor on these prices in any given match-up, and giving me one of the best match-ups in the league is more than enough of a reason to roll with him here.

Thaddeus Young FD - $6300 DK - $5500
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 32.5 DK - 31.55
Our system is loving these Pacer dudes against the Knicks, and honestly, I get it. They're a bottom 10 defense playing a league average PACE, and Kristaps' particular defensive game doesn't totally align with chasing Thad around the perimeter. Thad's per game stats don't look phenomenal on these prices, but the Pacers appear to have committed to giving him longer rotations in the last few games. If he's really a 37-38 minute player these prices are going to go up, and he's a great value on these prices in the meantime.

Center

Brook Lopez FD - $6000 DK - $5800
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 30.62 DK - 30.74
Bro-Lo, like Kuzma is in the awkward spot of coming off a fantastic game and heading into a much worse match-up at a much higher price. So is he worth it? It's honestly hard to say, but I do think I like the floor here. The one major risk to any of the Lakers today is the blowout, but we now have back to back games of 30 minutes and great production on these prices, and we have whole seasons in the past of Lopez supporting prices as high as $8,000. I'm waiting to see where Vegas weighs in in terms of the line for this game (which as of this writing hasn't come out), but if the game looks close I think he's still a solid play.

Al Horford FD - $6700 DK - $7200
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 35.54 DK - 35.75
Just a steady cash game option if you're a little spooked on Lopez. Horford's role is secure, and the price on FanDuel is likely just too low. He's averaging 5x points per dollar on these prices this season, and as I mentioned earlier, Orlando plays pretty fast. Horford is shooting less this season, but his FG% is way up, as are his rebounding and defensive stats. I could absolutely live with him in cash games here, but might prefer other options for upside.

Also considered: Nikola Vucevic for big tournaments for sure. But I'm a little spooked by the couple of bad games recently. I'm a little worried he's getting unseated, and Boston has been playing awfully slowly this season. Then again, they have allowed the very highest number of fantasy points to opposing centers this season. Deploy him at your own risk.

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