Daily Fantasy NASCAR Race Preview & Picks for DraftKings - AAA Texas 500

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AAA Texas 500

Texas Motor Speedway - Fort Worth, TX
Track - 1.5 Mile Quad-Oval Intermediate
Laps - 334

Welcome back NASCAR fans. This week the Mosnter Energy Cup Series travels back to Texas Motor Speedway for the AAA Texas 500 this Sunday. It's the second race of the Round of 8 and tempers and emotions have almost hit a boiling point with just two races until Homestead. Last week ended with some heated words between multiple drivers including Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott as Hamlin got into the back of Elliott who had the lead in closing laps of the race. Elliott's #24 car ended up in the wall and Chase finished 27th and is now in a tough position and will almost need a win to move on in the Playoffs.

Before getting into the race trends and pre-qualifying picks this week, let's look back at the Top 10 fantasy drivers from the Texas race back in April:

Let's now take a look at some of the trends going into this weeks race.

Last Six Winners at Texas

• Jimmie Johnson(started 24th, led 18 laps)
• Carl Edwards(started 9th, led 36 laps)
• Kyle Busch(started 15th, led 34 laps)
• Jimmie Johnson(started 8th, led 6 laps)
• Jimmie Johnson(started 5th, led 128 laps)
• Jimmie Johnson(started 3rd, led 191 laps)

Top 5 Current & Career Track History at Texas

The only thing keeping Jimmie Johnson under the radar this week at Texas Motor Speedway is the Elliot/Hamlin feud after last weeks race in Martinsville. TMS is just another track on the #48's list that he has dominated over the years as he has won three times since the start of the 2015 season and four times in the last six races here. He will need that Texas magic once again if he wants to move on to the next round as he is currently outside the bubble with two races remaining in this round. Speaking of Chase Elliott, he has been money here at Texas as well with Top 5 finishes in two of his three career races and finished Top 10 in the other. Like Jimmie, he will need another strong performance as he now sits 26 points below the cutline. Kevin Harvick, despite no wins on his Texas resume, has been very consistent here with three Top 5's and five Top 10's in his last five races and has an 11.7 career average finish. Dale Earnhardt Jr, in his last Texas race, makes a nice value play under $8K this week and has three Top 5's and four Top 10 finishes in his last four races here with a 4.0 average finish. The other driver that makes both of these lists is Kyle Busch who two career wins here including one in the spring last year.

Top 5 Current Track Type History(Intermediate)

In case you have been living under a rock lately, you know Martin Truex Jr. has been the King of the intermediate tracks not only this season but for three years running. Six of his seven wins this season have come on mile and a half tracks as he has averaged a whopping 96.5 DraftKings points per race. Since the start of the 2015 season, he has nine wins on intermediate track to go along with 14 Top 5's, 25 Top 10's and has only finished outside the Top 20 once in 34 races. Whoa! Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick have also been very consistent on the mile and half tracks as the only other two drivers with a sub 10.0 average finish since the start of the 2015 season and both are averaging over 50 DraftKings points per race on the intermediates this season. Kyle Larson does not show u pin the Top 5 on intermediate tracks due to his inconsistency since the start of the 2015 season but has been very good from a fantasy perspective this season with seven finishes of 6th or better including four runner-up finishes and he is averaging the fourth-most DraftKings points per race(50.3) on intermediate tracks.

Top 5 Current Form (last six races)

It is no surprise seeing Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. at the top of the DraftKings point per race rankings above as they have dominated the playoffs winning six of the seven races so far. Brad Keselowski is up next as he is the only other driver with a win in the 2017 Playoffs and has five Top 10 finishes in the seven races. Chase Elliott was on his way for a first career win last week before being dumped by Denny Hamlin and despite finishing 27th, still sits third in the current form ranks with a 10.3 average finish due to his overall consistency.

Pre Qualifying Targets for the AAA Texas 500

Martin Truex Jr.($11,000) 

I will have exposure to both Truex and Kyle Busch this week but much more on the #78 team as Kyle is already locked into the Championship race at Homestead with his win at Martinsville last week. Truex has been dominant on the intermediate tracks this season with six wins and 2,206 laps led but has never won at Texas Motor Speedway. This is no concern to me whatsoever as he had never won at Kentucky, Las Vegas, or Kansas before this season either. Elite fantasy play in all formats.

Chase Elliott($9,100)

Despite being dumped in the closing laps last week, Elliott has been extremely consistent throughout the playoffs with a 9.1 average finish that includes three runner-ups and four Top 5 finishes. Sitting last in the standings of the eight remaining drivers, he will almost need a win to advance and will be extremely motivated. For fantasy, it also helps that he comes with a value price in the low $9K range and has finished Top 10 in all three previous Texas races with two Top 5's.

Ty Dillon($6,900)

Looking at the value range, it always comes down to qualifying as place differential plays a huge role. I will be watching Ty Dillon and the #13 team very closely this evening as he averaged the most DraftKings points per intermediate race(31.8) this season of all the drivers in the sub $7K range and comes back to Texas having finished Top 20 in his only two races here.

Weekly YouTube Video

 

 

Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well.

 

If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.