Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 8 - 10/25/17

It's time for Week 8 and an odd one when looking at the main slate of games. Six teams are on byes, there's an early game in London and DK isn't counting the PIT/ DET game on Sunday night. That's going to make for one of the shorter NFL slates your likely to see and significantly reduces the player pool. But we can still find some value. Let's take a look at Week 8 NFL for FanDuel and DraftKings.

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Quarterback

Carson Wentz FD 7900 DK 7200
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 21.31 DK - 22.23
The Eagles are firing on all cylinders right now and own the best record in football. That’s thank in very large part to Wentz who’s somewhat quietly become one of the top fantasy (and real) quarterbacks in the league. Wentz ranks 4th in quarterback fantasy points per game this season behind only Dak, Watson and Smith. He isn’t incredibly accurate (62% completion percentage) but has weapons at his disposal and has been content spreading the love around after his top target in Ertz. He also takes to the ground in a big way where he is third overall in quarterback rushing yards. The Eagles have the highest implied total on the week (30.25) against a bottom third pass defense in the 49ers. The price has come up, but completely into the upper tier yet. There’s some blowout risk (-13) which could impact his fantasy upside if Philly just takes to the ground to wind down the game. But on a shorter main slate Wentz comes in as the top option.

Cam Newton FD 7800 DK 6600
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 21.26 DK - 22.11
This isn’t a safe play by any means, but we have seen a price drop on Cam (rightfully so) over the last two weeks thanks to some subpar performances. He had two disastrous interceptions for pick 6’s in the first half on Sunday and they simply couldn’t sustain any drives. It’s been a tale of two Cams this season with his performances basically either amazing or awful. I like Wentz considerably more, but Cam has a great matchup against the Buc who rank dead last in defensive DVOA this season and are worse against the pass (also dead last) than the run. Cam has run a lot more this season and leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. I’m no Cam lover, but with the struggles they’ve had to run the ball and the matchup, I do think he’s in consideration on a smaller main slate of games.

Andy Dalton FD 7600 DK 5700
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 18.56 DK - 19.39
He's more of a DraftKings play than anything. The Bengals have a huge total this week (for them) against a Colts' D that ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass this season. Again, we are looking at Dalton only at a salary relief play on DraftKings where he's in the lower price tier. He has a WR1 in Green at his disposal and the Bengals have struggled to run the ball consistently this season. He's had to face four top ten defenses this season (PIT, HOU, BAL, BUF) which is, of course, going to drive down those rate stats. I think he offers a safe (at this price) option on DraftKings in what looks to be their highest implied total of the season.

Running Back

Le'Veon Bell FD 9400 DK 9300
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 22.05 DK - 24.66
At some point the wheels are going to fall off this runaway train, but it hasn’t happened yet and it’s unlikely to come completely to a halt this week. As long as Bell is going to touch the ball roughly 40,000 times a game then he’s worth it as these prices. Bell’s 211 looks (rushing attempts + receiving targets) are 28 more than the next closest guy (Todd Gurley) and 51 more than number three on the list (Melvin Gordon). From a usage standpoint, Bell has basically played two or more games than other running back. This is a pretty insane and will for sure not work out in the long term for Bell. Detroit has a top ten DVOA defense this season so the matchup isn’t ideal, but honestly, it’s hard to be so concerned with that considering Bell seems to get his touches independent of game script. The Steelers are a two-headed offensive monster (we’ll get to Brown in a bit) and Bell is more like a 10K player on FD (he’s not available on the DK main slate this week, but is so good he gets top billing anyway for this article).

Mark Ingram FD 7200 DK 7400
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 18.46 DK - 20.4
With Adrian Peterson out of the picture, we now have two consecutive weeks of what the Saints’ new plan is going forward with their running game. In Weeks 6-7 Ingram averaged a 24/110/1.5 on ground and 5/20 through the air. This is creeping up to the non-Bell elite usage category with the price still lagging well behind. The Saints have the perfect cash game running back scenario as a big (-9) home favorite against the Bears. Despite their shutout performance of the Panthers last week the Bears are still a middling defense and worse against the run. Ingram’s averaging 4.66 YPC and the New Orleans’ offense is balanced enough that defenses can’t really load up against the run. I suspect he’s a chalkier play on both sites.

Joe Mixon FD 5900 DK 4700
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 12.06 DK - 12.97
Quick note: For FanDuel purposes, the above two guys are likely the chalk plays this week. But DraftKings is tougher sledding seeing as how the Pittsburgh-Detroit game isn’t included on the main slate and many of the RBs are quite expensive. That could leave us in a weird spot creating rosters and possibly trying to find cheaper plays in the middle tier. Mixon’s Week 7 game was pretty non-existent considering the Bengals were down early and had to pass most of the game to try and catch up. This week they come in as huge (-10.5) home favorites against a bottom third DVOA Colts’ defense. This is one of those situations in which you hope the price and opponent trumps the lack of skill for the player. Mixon has struggled to get much going on the ground though his Week 3-5 games saw him averaging 15 carries per game with some of the goalline work. His YPC is garbage, but that’s factored into his price. For DraftKings you also have to like the work in the passing game (averaging three receptions per game over his last four weeks).

Consider Ezekiel Elliott as the upper tier play if you want to pivot off Bell for a little bit of savings.

Wide Receiver

Who to pay up for?
This will be a philosophical decision this week. Do we pay slightly more for the perceived safety of Brown, or do we read further into Vegas' insistence that Julio is the better bet for yards on a week to week basis? Let's dive into their respective candidacies since both are solid plays.

Antonio Brown FD 9200 DK 8800
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 19.9 DK - 24.07
Antonio Brown is leading the league in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He has 16 targets, 7 catches, and 220 more yards than the second place finisher in each of those categories. Which is to say - Antonio Brown basically has an extra game or game and a half worth of production over the combined 2nd place of the rest of the league. That's just ridiculous. He'll be up against a slightly below average Detroit passing defense, but really - you simply can't contend with Brown's overall usage and production at the wide receiver position. His lowest target total on the season was 9 - which would be tied for Julio Jones' 3rd best game of the season. For my money, he's in a league of his own, and I'll happily pay the extra $400-$500 to make his appearance in my lineups a reality.

Julio Jones FD 8700 DK 8400
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 17.31 DK - 20.84
And then there's Julio Jones. For whatever reason he's been Vegas' darling the last couple of weeks, posting the highest overall yards in Vegas' individual player props in back to back weeks. He delivered a sub-par performance in week 6, but rallied for a season-high 9 catches on 13 targets and his second-highest receiving total of 99 yards. But isn't that sort of the problem? Brown has 4 games with more yards than Julio's best game, and more targets and receptions to give him a higher floor. If we're looking at these two head to head, I'm taking Brown in a no-contest. The issue on DK is that Brown isn't available - in that case, I think Julio makes for a more than acceptable consolation prize on the main slate.

Amari Cooper FD 7200 DK 6600
Opponent BUF
Proj Points FD - 13.06 DK - 15.69
Amari Cooper has taken his boom/bust reputation to new heights this season, going from the single worst value on a points per dollar basis among players that cost $6,500 or more to having a GPP winning week in week 7. He had more receiving yards in week 7 than he had in the rest of the season combined. So what's the real story? Well, Cooper has always had this inconsistent track record. Last year he posted 4 129+ yard games in his first 8 before not topping 76 in the 9 that followed. Cooper will likely never be a stable option at wide receiver, but is the upside worth the potential risk? I kind of think it is. 19 targets isn't a number you just back into - it's a deliberate attempt by an offensive coordinator and quarterback to get the ball in a guy's hands. Given how successful it was, it is very hard to believe that the Raiders just back right into the 5-6 targets per game he had been seeing. Buffalo has been in the bottom third of the league in defending the pass this season, so I like Cooper to provide solid if not GPP winning production, and to be highly owned.

Keenan Allen FD 7800 DK 7300
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 14.19 DK - 17.61
Not a name the DFSR faithful are going to be happy to see, but I think he's a fine play nonetheless. Allen was relatively quiet against Denver in his last game, but who hasn't been? The Broncos have two incredible cornerbacks, which makes it particularly difficult for a guy like Allen who can sometimes escape elite coverage by ducking into the slot. New England? Yeah, that shouldn't be an issue. They're dead last against the pass this season, allowing 2172 yards through the air over the course of this young season. Part of that is because they put opposing teams on the back foot (which they should here as well), but part of it is because their secondary is just garbage - their 8.4 yards per attempt allowed is 2nd behind only Colts in the race for the league's worst. In spite of having a season-low 7 targets last game, Allen is still tied for 2nd in the NFL with 68 targets on the season, and I love him for a bounce-back performance here.

Tight End

Zach Ertz FD 7300 DK 7000
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 14.1 DK - 17.53
One of these weeks he’ll stop scoring touchdowns right? It’s often a tough spot to pay up for tight end but Ertz has been remarkably consistent this season thanks to the number of targets and TD conversion rate. There’s probably some run-hot in the latter though he is tied for 4th most RZ targets in the league this season. He leads all tight ends in targets with 11 more than the next closest guy (Gronk) and gets a dream matchup against the 49ers defense. As with Wentz, there’s some concern this game goes the blowout route early which would be a disaster for Ertz considering the price, but he’s clearly the top weekly TE play.

Hunter Henry FD 5500 DK 4800
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 10.65 DK - 12.73
If it isn’t already abundantly clear to you, let’s just hammer it home once and for all: the Charger tight end torch has been passed from Gates to Henry. The latter out-snapped the latter 47-18 in Week 7 continuing a trend we had seen over the last three or so weeks. He was second on the team in targets (5) last week against the Broncos and finished with a 4/73 line. This week the matchup gets quite a bit easier against the Patriots who’ve allowed the most passing yards in the league this season. Henry’s price has barely moved in the last three weeks even with the new opportunity and considering the performance, Gates isn’t likely to get those snaps back. He’s a better deal on FD seeing as how a number of TEs on DK still exist in the low $3K range.

Consider other low-end options like Ed Dickson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Defense

Cincinnati Bengals
FD 4800 DK 3600
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 10.12 DK - 10.12
CIN -10.5 O/U 41.5

Pittsburgh Steelers
FD 4400 DK 2900
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 9.10 DK - 9.10
PIT -3 O/U 45

New Orleans
FD 4400 DK 2900
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 9.10 DK - 9.10
PIT -3 O/U 45

 

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