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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 10/1/17
All right, here's the thing: this is the last day of the MLB season and if you are around for the last dying breath then you are a hardcore lifer that wants this s@#$ come hell or high water. Combine that with an NFL Sunday and if you're playing MLB last Sunday then you are a true hero of the highest order. We are going to roll through some of the plays on the super quick, but this might be the loneliest Sunday of them all in the MLB DFS world.
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Pitcher
Johnny Cueto FD 8400 DK 9300
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @SF
FD - 34.09 DK - 22.44
We are looking for pitchers whose teams don't give a crap and are in solid matchups. Cueto fits that bill. The Giants are going nowhere and he faces the Padres. They've sucked all season long with a K rate the second highest in the league and a team OPS v rhp ranking second to last. They stink. Cueto isn't exactly lighting the world on fire, but he's striking out 8.5/9 and hucking in one of the best pitcher's parks in the league. He's a slight (-135) favorite and coming cheap. We likely want to avoid the playoff arms who could be on pitch limits here making Cueto a solid play.
Without Vegas lines in at the time of post, here are some other pitchers you can consider with a couple of notes.
Jordan Montgomery FD 6500 DK 7500
Opponent - TOR (Anderson) Park - @NYY
FD - 28.88 DK - 19.08
The Jays have been fielding some garbage lineups after the 4-hole and Mont has posted solid peripherals.
Nick Pivetta FD 6700 DK 6900
Opponent - NYM (Syndergaard) Park - @PHI
FD - 28.18 DK - 18.73
I looooovvvvvveeeeee, the K rate and he's run bad on BABIP and LOB% this season. He's a candidate to finish as one of the best pitching performances on the day considering the Mets' lineup and if you were going to roster a GPP upside arm on the slate, this would be the one.
Josh Tomlin FD 6700 DK 7100
Opponent - CHW (Volstad) Park - @CLE
FD - 29.58 DK - 19.53
I suppose the Indians are still playing for their slot in the playoffs so there's something to consider with Tomlin here. The matchup is great and his miniscule walk rate could allow him to at least pitch some innings in this one.
Look, this isn't your average day of baseball. It's the very last day, Vegas isn't committing to much of anything and a ton of guys could be the day off. It's pretty brutal from a prognostication standpoint. That being said, we'll just roll through some of the guys in good spots if you assumed everything played out normally. Forgive us for not doing full scale write ups on these guys, the situations are just so damned volatile. I'm going to go basically bullet point style through the hitters with a note about why they are plays.
Catcher
Gary Sanchez FD 3400 DK 5100
Opponent - TOR (Anderson) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.36 DK - 8.72
Against the lefty he's likely to be lethal in the middle of the order, but the Yankees are locked into their spot and he could get the day off leading into the play-in game against the Twins.
Austin Barnes FD 3200 DK 4300
Opponent - COL (Anderson) Park - @COL
FD - 8.71 DK - 7.06
He typically gets the start against lefties and this is Coors after all. He's crushed left handed pitching this season to an .886 OPS even with moderate .265 BABIP issues. Guy has mashed all year and I think he'll draw the start in a plus matchup.
First Base
Freddie Freeman FD 3900 DK 5100
Opponent - MIA (Urena) Park - @MIA
FD - 11.73 DK - 8.98
It's a shame he played on the Braves all season. He did his typical, "I'm a 1K OPS guy on a shit team and that's kind of my fate" thing all year. Freeman is dogged by the rest of his team not getting on base or scoring, but he's a solid FD play today in a plus matchup against Urena.
Ryan Zimmerman FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - PIT (Brault) Park - @WSH
FD - 12.55 DK - 9.63
He likely doesn't see a full compliment of innings today because the Nats have this thing firmly locked up (hell he could sit all together) but here's to hoping he plays. Zimm's crushed lefties this season to a 1.042 OPS and .426 wOBA. If he's in the lineup fire him up against the lefty.
Second Base
Robinson Cano FD 3400 DK 4800
Opponent - LAA (Bridwell) Park - @LAA
FD - 11.27 DK - 8.59
Luckily the Mariners have nothing to play for so there's nothing standing in the way of one more Cano game. He's just kind of a guy now with an .800 OPS and sitting amongst a mediocre lineup. But Cano is still a very low K guy and Parker Bridwell has no put away stuff.
Ben Zobrist FD 3300 DK 4400
Opponent - CIN (McGuire) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.32 DK - 7.94
The Cubs mess with their lineup a lot so there's no saying whether Zobrist plays at all, but if he does and is near the top of the order then we are in shape here. McGuire is a K guy but he's very susceptible to runs and Zobrist is a tough out all around.
Logan Forsythe FD 3700 DK 4300
Opponent - COL (Anderson) Park - @COL
FD - 8.81 DK - 6.92
He's crushed lefties all season long with an .883 OPS and .386 wOBA. Again, this is Coors and against the southpaw Forsythe should hit well up in the order. He's a relative bargain with the splits on an uncertain day.
Shortstop
Elvis Andrus FD 3400 DK 3900
Opponent - OAK (Mengden) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.06 DK - 9.44
Andrus has hit in the middle of the order all season and you'd think that would continue for one more day here. The 20 home runs out of the SS position are about as good as you can expect and he as a plus matchup against Mengden.
Marcus Semien FD 3600 DK 3800
Opponent - TEX (Hamels) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.51 DK - 9.16
Cole Hamels has flat out sucked this season, dipping the K rate to under 7 per 9 and working an xFIP closing in on 5.00. Semien is vastly better against lefties for his career with a 116 wRC+ and .793 OPS. He'll likely hit at the top of the order in this matchup.
Third Base
Josh Donaldson FD 4000 DK 5400
Opponent - NYY (Montgomery) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.59 DK - 9.46
He's facing a lefty and that's about all you need to know for Dong-lason. He's always been good in this split and this season's been nothing different with a nut-so 1.075 OPS and .436 wOBA. Not a great matchup against Montgomery but even the latter's skill doesn't totally make up for how much Donaldson destroys southpaws.
Manny Machado FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @TB
FD - 11.68 DK - 9.03
He's another guy who's gone out this season and just crushed lefties. Machado dealt with a ton of struggles to start the season and still ended with an .842 OPS in this split even with a crazy low .276 BABIP. The ballpark doesn't help him here, and Snell has shown so K-upside, but you are buying low all the way around.
Outfield
Nomar Mazara FD 2900 DK 4400
Opponent - OAK (Mengden) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.87 DK - 9.18
Shin-Soo Choo FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - OAK (Mengden) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.59 DK - 9.86
The Rangers have one of the higher implied totals on the day which makes sense considering Daniel Mengden sucks. Dude's got a K rate in the 5 per 9 range (you don't often see it that low) with an xFIP hovering near 5. The Rangers could be in some for runs at home in Texas and these guys should be hitting in the top third of the lineup.
Giancarlo Stanton FD 4500 DK 5700
Opponent - ATL (Fried) Park - @MIA
FD - 16.12 DK - 12.11
One last day to roster a guy with 59 home runs going into the last game of the season. Oh, and he's facing a lefty in Max Fried who can't strike anyone out. Lock this one up.
