Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/8/17

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Pitcher

Max Scherzer FD 11600 DK 13300
Opponent - PHI (Thompson) Park - @WSH
FD - 51.9 DK - 34.43

Scherzer has sat out since last Saturday when he was struck by a line drive but will be back on the bump Friday night. He played catch on Tuesday and went through a bullpen session on Wednesday and didn't report any pain so I am full go on him moving forward. He has been elite all year with a 2.19 ERA, 3.12 xFIP and has tremendous upside with a 12.1 K/9 rate and 15.7% swinging strike rate. He also gets one of the top matchups of the night vs. the Phillies who rank in the bottom third of the league in almost all offensive categories including wOBA(.311), wRC+(89) and K rate(23.7%) vs. right-handed pitching. He is the top pitcher in al formats tonight.

Patrick Corbin FD 9500 DK 9500
Opponent - SD (Lyles) Park - @ARI
FD - 29.16 DK - 19.13

Looking at the projections, Corbin is down the list a bit at the moment but is listed here as a nice pivot play tonight. He has been at the top of his game lately winning five straight starts holding opponents to just two total earned runs in that time. The K rate(8.7 K/9) is just above league average but gets a boost tonight as the Padres come to town with their league-low .284 wOBA and 75 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching with a 25.4% strikeout rate. The park is a downgrade when looking at the overall numbers but consider Corbin has been much better at home with a 2.64 ERA(5.13 on the road) and has held opponents to a .302 wOBA(.357 on the road).

Luke Weaver FD 7400 DK 8400
Opponent - PIT (Williams) Park - @STL
FD - 32.02 DK - 21.06

Going even further down the salary list we find young Luke Weaver who has flashed brilliance early in his MLB career. In eight starts last season he posted an 11.2 K/9 rate but had issues keep the ball on the ground and in return gave up some home runs(21.2% HR/FB rate). In 2017, he has continued to show us elite K upside(11.3 K/9) but is now also generating over 50% ground balls which have helped him lower his ERA to 2.50 and has a xFIP of 3.03 to back it up. He gets another plus matchup tonight vs. the Pirates who rank 27th in wOBA(.307) and wRC+(87) vs. right-handed pitching. He makes an excellent SP2 to pair with Kluber or a stand alone GPP target on FanDuel.

 

Catcher

Gary Sanchez FD 3600 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.84 DK - 8.32

He is back from serving his three-game suspension and tops the raw points projections at the position tonight. He isn't the most consistent option with .276 average but can do a lot of damage with the power game and comes into tonight with a .365 wOBA, 127 wRC+ with 28 home runs and 79 RBI. Sanchez also gets a nice park upgrade going to Globe Life Park in Arlington and gets a top matchup vs. Martin Perez who has a 4.87 ERA overall and struggles more against righties with a .358 wOBA against.

Roberto Perez FD 2800 DK 3000
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @CLE
FD - 7.7 DK - 5.74

For value, I will go back to Roberto Perez who I wrote up yesterday but ended up sitting out on Thursday night. Here is what I wrote:

The Indians are going to be popular tonight on a smaller, eight-game slate but will be tough to avoid considering they have been the hottest team in the league over the past couple weeks. The first of their bats I like tonight starts with their catcher who went into Wednesday nights game with hits in nine straight games including three straight with multiple hits. Sure he gets a downgrade due to the batting order but he is on the road which gives him that extra chance to come to the plate and he is also better against lefties with a .320 wOBA and 95 wRC+(.281/68 vs RH).

It is a full slate tonight but Perez makes a lot of sense in an optimal position to punt if you are trying to get Scherzer into your lineups.

 

Also Consider: Salvador Perez(KC)

First Base

Edwin Encarnacion FD 4200 DK 4700
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @CLE
FD - 12.93 DK - 9.66

The Indians continued to roll over anything in their path as they extended their winning streak to 15 games last night on the back of another Edwin Encarnacion multi hit game. He now has hits in eight straight with five multi-hit efforts and added to his home run total and now has 33 for the season. The matchup doesn't jump off the page as Wade Miley has been better as of late but still has a big issue with the walks(5.1 BB/9) and if it continues the Indians will make him pay, starting with the cleanup hitter.

Eric Hosmer FD 3600 DK 3900
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @KC
FD - 10.97 DK - 8.46

If you are anchoring your team around Max Scherzer tonight you will have to find value at almost every position considering Max's hefty salary. Enter Eric Hosmer who I mentioned yesterday as an excellent value option for all formats. He proved me right once again as he is currently 2 for 2 with a walk on Thursday night. Even more good news as his salary dropped a full $500 on DraftKings tonight putting him under $4K on both sites. Lock and load vs. Ervin Santana who has been less than stellar lately allowing seven earned runs over his last two starts.

Also Consider: Jose Martinez(STL)

Second Base

Robinson Cano FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @SEA
FD - 12.22 DK - 9.31

It a double "Whammy" with Cano tonight. His price is very affordable on both sites in the second tier which elevates his PTS/$ ranking as he gets a top matchup. He will face off with Ricky Nolasco who has struggled all season with a 5.08 ERA,4.63 xFIP and best of all he gives up a ton of home runs(33 for a 17.7% HR/FB rate). If you are looking for consistency you won't find a much better option for the price than Cano who has recorded his eighth 20+ home run season in nine years and has added a .338 wOBA and 113 wRC+

Joe Panik FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - CHW (Giolito) Park - @CHW
FD - 9.66 DK - 7.72

The fact that the Giants have one of the worst offenses in baseball makes it hard to consider their players, especially in GPP's as the upside is capped. For cash games, I think Panik makes a nice choice in the low-mid $3K range on both sites. He hits out of the two-hole and has been scorching hot lately going 14 for his last 23 with four doubles, a home run and five RBI. The matchup vs. Jucas Giolito isn't my favorite on the night as he is coming off a one earned run, 10 strikeout performance but has given up four home runs and a 35% hard contact rate in his three starts this season.

Also Consider: Whit Merrifield(KC)

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor FD 4100 DK 5300
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @CLE
FD - 12.59 DK - 10.1

Hard not to like Lindor once again tonight. He didn't get a chance to face the lefty Carlos Rodon who was a late scratch but still went 3 for 6 last night with a home run and three runs scored. It ended a two game hitless streak but looking at the bigger picture, Lindor has been rolling since the start of August with a .350 wOBA, 115 wRC+ and has added 11 home runs with 22 RBI and 21 runs scored helping his team to a 15-game winning streak. I mentioned with Encarnacion that Miley has been better lately but still gives up a ton of walks(5.1 BB/9) and home runs(17.5% HR/FB rate) and Lindor has been much better vs. southpaws. If you are paying up at the position, Lindor is easily the top choice tonight.

Jose Reyes FD 3200 DK 3700
Opponent - CIN (Garrett) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.14 DK - 9.32

Reyes falls into a very similar category as Joe Panik tonight. He hits at the top of the order on a bad offensive team but comes cheap and should get plenty of opportunities given the matchup. He is a switch hitter and has been really only relevant against lefties with a .340 wOBA and 112 wRC+(.288/78 vs. RH). That is good news as he faces Amir Garrett who was called up on Tuesday and before being sent down in June was real bad with a 7.41 ERA and 27.5% HR/FB rate. No, Reyes doesn't hit home runs but if he can get on base there are some guys behind him who can take advantage. All things considered, he is safe in all formats.

Also Consider: Zack Cozart(CIN)

Third Base

Kyle Seager FD 3500 DK 3700
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @SEA
FD - 11.55 DK - 8.81

After a night off the Mariners are back in action as the Angels come to town to start a weekend series. Kyle Seager sits right near the top of the raw points projections and comes in red hot with home runs in three straight games and hits in seven of his last nine. He isn't the most consistent option but is alway in consideration vs. a weaker right-handed pitcher. Enter Ricky Nolasco who has an average K rate(7.5 K/9) but has been less than impressive with a 5.08 ERA and 17.7% HR/FB rate.

Josh Donaldson FD 3700 DK 5200
Opponent - DET (Farmer) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.61 DK - 8.72

While I prefer the big discount with Seager in cash game on DraftKings, I will take Donaldson all day for an extra $200 on FanDuel. The former MVP struggled early in the season with injuries but has really been strong down the stretch. Since the beginning of August, JD20 has put up a .435 wOBA, 175 wRC+ and chipped in with 14 home runs and 33 RBI. Toronto currently has one of the highest implied run total on the slate and is has a lot to do with the matchup vs. Buck Farmer who has been terrible since his return giving up eight earned runs over his last two starts with a 6:4 strikeout to walk ratio. Get those Blue Birds in your lineup on Friday.

Also Consider: Eduardo Escobar(MIN)

Outfield

David Peralta FD 3400 DK 3800
Opponent - SD (Lyles) Park - @ARI
FD - 13.56 DK - 10.84
A.J. Pollock FD 3800 DK 4500
Opponent - SD (Lyles) Park - @ARI
FD - 13.13 DK - 11.11

The Diamondbacks, like the Indians, have been scorching hot lately winning 13 straight and no better time than now as they have opened up a 7.5 game lead in the wildcard in the final month of the season. For cash games, I prefer David Peralta who is cheaper on both sites and has been a staple in the leadoff spot. He has also been the most consistent option of the two with a .297/.350/.450 slash line and has scored 72 runs in 2017. Pollock hasn't quite got back to his peak performance in 2015 before the major injury but still has the edge in upside and adds the speed element with 19 stolen bases. They also get a top matchup tonight vs. Jordan Lyles who only last 4.1 innings in his first start after coming out of the bullpen all season. He enters tonight's contest with a 6.71 ERA and best of all, gives up the long ball on the regular(22% HR/FB rate).

Josh Reddick FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @OAK
FD - 11.05 DK - 8.68

While the team as a whole has struggled lately, Reddick has been one of the bright spots. Since mid-August, he has hits in 15 of 19 games, 10 of which were multi-hit efforts and equal an elite .406/.434/.493 slash line. He has been mostly hitting cleanup and with the talent around him(Altuve, Correa, Springer, Bregman), he gets a ton of opportunities to drive in and score runs. He and the Astros get a plus matchup tonight vs. a struggling Jharel Cotton(5.53 ERA, 5.47 xFIP) and with his mid-tier price, Reddick is safe in all formats on Friday.

Avisail Garcia FD 3900 DK 3800
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.62 DK - 8.36

I prefer Reddick at a $400 discount on FanDuel but with a sub $4K price tag on DraftKings, I will ride with Avisail Garcia for value tonight. It has been tough to trust the White Sox in the second half after they cleared house and made it clear they are in "rebuild mode" but Garcia is one batter who has picked up the slack. He sits with a .356/.419/.477 slash line since the All Star break and the only thing missing is the power as he has just three home runs in that time. At this price, I am not all concerned about the upside but love the floor he provides as he has been much better vs. southpaws with a .436 wOBA and 178 wRC+.

Also Consider: Giancarlo Stanton(MIA), Austin Jackson(CLE), Ender Inciarte(ATL)

 

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