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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

09/05/2017
Brent Holloway

Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/5/17

Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here.

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CLEVELAND INDIANS

If you read the cash game picks article, you probably saw this coming. David Holmberg is imminently mashable (6.18 xFIP), the park is great, and the Indians are a top-five offense vs. LHP this season in both wRC+ and team wOBA. It's no wonder then that they've got the second-highest implied total on the board tonight. Also noteworthy: Holmberg hasn't started a game or worked more than 1.2 innings in the majors since June 26, so while he's been stretched out in the minors recently, there's a good chance we'll get to see extended work from the White Sox bullpen in this one. That's never a bad thing, because they rank near the bottom of the league in ERA and xFIP, and most of their best arms have been dealt away. As for the Indians, there are plenty of guys to choose from. The top third of the order (Lindor, Jackson, Ramirez) have put up the best numbers against LHP this season, but we still like Encarnacion and Guyer, who have put up nice numbers vs. southpaws over the course of their careers. Yan Gomes is also firmly in play with a .365 wOBA/.247 ISO in the split this season, and if Jay Bruce is in there, he deserves consideration, too. He's got a .214 ISO vs. LHP this season, and Holmberg hasn't exactly been lights-out vs. lefties this year (.355 wOBA, .191 ISO).

COLORADO ROCKIES

Ok, Ty Blach isn't the kind of guy we usually like to pick on. He's not that good (4.68 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 4.88 xFIP), but he throws strikes and doesn't give up many homers (.96 HRs/9), which limits the upside -- at least under normal circumstances. In Coors Field, the story is always a little bit different, though, and we've got too many righties we want to play against him to forego a few Rockies stacks tonight. Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story are the leading candidates, as they continue to put up ridiculous numbers vs. lefties this season (Arenado: .520 wOBA/.434 ISO; Story: .425/.366). But we don't have to stop there. DJ LeMahieu (.421/.181) and Mark Reynolds (.337/.188) also deserve a look, and really, there's no right-handed bat we won't consider. That's because Blach's R/L splits are pretty extreme -- he's been death to lefties with a 59% ground ball rate leading to a .273 wOBA/.053 ISO. But against righties, the ground ball percentage shrinks to 44% and the production against him balloons to .347/.199. Perhaps the most interesting question in this matchup is what to do with Charlie Blackmon -- the high prices and LvL matchup could keep his ownership relatively low, and that piques our interest in tournaments. Blackmon is coming in with a .412 wOBA and .235 ISO in the split, and while Blach doesn't give up much vs. lefties, we think there's a good chance about half of Blackmon's PAs are coming against the San Fran bullpen tonight.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

You might've notice we actually recommended taking a flyer on Robert Stephenson in the GPP pitchers article. The same hedge play applies here (i.e. if you end playing playing multiple Brewers stacks it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to get at least a little exposure to Stephenson, too, because the possible outcomes in this game are all over the spectrum). Stephenson's best tool right now is the ability to miss bats, and that could lead to a frustrating day at the plate for Milwaukee, given the Brewers' league-worst 25.7 K% vs. RHP this season. On the other hand, Stephenson is pretty generous with the long ball (1.69 HRs/9) and struggles with amateurish control at times (5.83 BBs/9), and that could play well for the Brewers. They've fallen off quite a bit from their early-season numbers, but a .189 team ISO could still translate into a big day against a fly-ball pitcher in an extremely friendly HR park. Five Milwaukee hitters come in with an ISO over .200 vs. RHP this season, and conveniently, it's the same ones who frequently occupy the 2-6 slots (Walker, Braun, Shaw, Santana, Thames). They're the obvious choices for your stacks, and don't worry about the R/L splits too much; Stephenson's had trouble with hitters from both sides this season, yielding a .356 wOBA and .225 ISO vs. R, and .376/.174 vs. L.

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