Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/3/17

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Pitcher

Chris Sale FD 11200 DK 13800
Opponent - NYY (Severino) Park - @NYY
FD - 40.25 DK - 26.47

As of now, it looks like Chris Sale will be manning the mound tonight. As I'm writing this, it's still listed as N/A on a couple of sites (MLB, ESPN), so just make sure he's confirmed before you plug in anything early. As long as he's out there, you who the top option on the slate is. Sale has faced the Yankees twice in his last 4 starts, going for a combined 14 innings and 21 strikeouts. While pitcher history against a certain team isn't typically something I care about, it is with Chris Sale. He has a tendency to struggle against the same teams over and over again. He has been the best pitcher in baseball this year and is only a few more starts from securing the Cy Young from Corey Kluber. Sale has been insane against both sides of the plate with a combined .241 wOBA and 12 K/9. At this point, we all know how great Chris Sale is. It just comes down to your personal roster construction and if you can fit him or not.  Personally, I think I can find enough value to make it work. In tournaments, however, I'll be fading in a few spots for some high-powered offenses.

Mike Fiers FD 8100 DK 9100
Opponent - NYM (Flexen) Park - @HOU
FD - 32.27 DK - 21.2

If you're playing on the "main". or early slate, Chris Sale isn't an option. Neither is Luis Severino, Madison Bumgarner, Alex Wood, or Luke Weaver. Instead, you'll have to choose from some very, very lackluster options. Ervin Santana will probably be right with Fiers for the most popular, which should tell you a lot about this crop. Fiers is our favorite at the price and he should be just fine. Just fine is exactly what you're looking for. We'll get to Fiers in a minute, but the real reason you want him is the Mets putrid lineup. The Mets are absolutely atrocious at this point and there's not much arguing who the current worst offense in baseball is. They've struck out 25.2% of the time over the last 10 games and I figure that number will only go up. Fiers has been better against lefties with a .327 wOBA, but has struggled against righties at nearly .350. He does strikeout 9 batters per 9 innings and does a solid job of keeping it on the ground 45% of the time. On a slate like this, Fiers should do what you need. Just know that there is no such thing as a remotely safe pitcher on this slate.

Catcher

Stephen Vogt FD 2300 DK 2700
Opponent - WSH (Jackson) Park - @MIL
FD - 7.84 DK - 6.09

This is a pretty typical day at catcher. We have a bunch of solid cheap options and most people will look to punt. This is a slate with a bunch of day games, so be on the watch for some back-ups to get in there. Our favorite of the bunch is Stephen Vogt, facing off with Edwin Jackson in Miller Park. Vogt is actually a solid hitter, though you wouldn't think so if you just looked at how he's treated by MLB teams. In a league where it's tough to find a catcher with a .330+ wOBA, I'm thoroughly surprised that Vogt isn't a more valuable commodity. He's struggled mightily this season being passed around, but has held a .372 wOBA against righties dating back to 2015. He also put up most of his numbers in the Oakland Coliseum, so he wasn't getting bailed out. Edwin Jackson has been atrocious for years now and he's allowed a .372 wOBA since the start of the season against lefties. Miller Park is solid for lefties and Vogt gives you some notable upside and safety at a cheap tag.

Kurt Suzuki FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - CHC (Montgomery) Park - @CHC
FD - 3.45 DK - 2.66

If you feel like paying up a little bit, Kurt Suzuki has been amazing against lefties this season and will be relatively ignored by the masses. Since Opening Day, Suzuki has sported a .525 wOBA on an unlucky .241 BABIP. It makes absolutely no sense and while it will inevitably go back down, there's no denying Suzuki and his ability against southpaws. He faces a very average one in Mike Montgomery that has been good, but can give up the homer and doesn't typically last longer than 4 or 5 innings. Wrigley Field is about even with SunTrust for righties and Suzuki will pick up the top of the 9th guaranteed. His price is a bit higher than some of these obvious choices and I'm hoping it keeps his ownership under 15%. In cash games, I still prefer Vogt. The Braves are a putrid offense and they can be shut down on the road at times.

First Base

Mike Napoli FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - LAA (Heaney) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.47 DK - 9.38

First base, per the usual, is a spot with a plethora of options. You can look towards the elite ones with Goldschmidt in Coors and Votta against a bad righty. Then you move into the mid-range, where you'll find the guys we're talking about here. Mike Napoli and the Rangers host the Angels and face off with the young southpaw Andrew Heaney. Heaney has allowed a .422 wOBA to righties on the year and while the sample size is small, it's at a combined. 386 since 2014. Napoli on the other hand, has never let up against lefties. On the season, he's held a .329 wOBA and has hit 28 home runs. He's typically more of a boom/bust option, but I like him in cash against Heaney in this ballpark. The price is solid and I don't suspect he'll be too popular. He has burned a lot of bridges this season.

Albert Pujols FD 3100 DK 3800
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.78 DK - 9.84
C.J. Cron FD 3400 DK 4100
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.42 DK - 8.91

We're going to direct ourselves to the other side of the diamond and look into the dugout at Albert Pujols and C.J. Cron. Of course, Albert Pujols is the gut move and the smart one most times. With that being said, C.J. Cron can hit the damn ball and he will go about 5x lesser owned than Pujols. They both face off with Martin Perez, which can add a lot of appeal to some boring hitters. Perez is still chugging with his .363 wOBA and seems to get hit around on a weekly basis. He's given up 17 homers in just over 100 innings. He welcomes in the Angels, who are a very sneaky offense. They don't have a lot of the big names lower in the order, but ride Trout up top and nickel and dime you to death in the bottom. Cron, Pujols, and Valbuena are tasked with putting the ball over the fence. In Globe Life Park, their job just got a whole lot easier. you can see Cron is more expensive than Pujols and while this looks like a turn-off, I prefer it. In this case, I'm not sure Cron see more than 7%. If you can stack the Angels and get Cron in instead of Pujols, it's a great move. We know the upside Cron has and this ballpark will only help put runs on the board.

Second Base

Jose Altuve FD 4200 DK 5200
Opponent - NYM (Flexen) Park - @HOU
FD - 13.8 DK - 11.58

Without any pitchers to pay up for on this slate, you should have no worries about stacking an expensive lineup or plugging in some hefty 1-offs. Jose Altuve can be used as both, facing off with Chris Flexen. Flexen may be a good pitcher in a2 or 3 years, but he's about as good as a guy in A+/AA should be. He's allowed a combined .417 wOBA and has backed it up with some very concerning peripherals (7.92 xFIP, 5.68 K/9). I just don't see how he can now come into Houston and shut down the Astros. One of the 3 best teams in the league. Jose Altuve is the beating heart of the order and clearly one of the top options on the slate. Flexen has been just as bad against righties as he's been against lefties, so no worries on that front. Altuve has always been better against southpaws, but a consistent .380+ wOBA against righties is nothing to scoff at in the slightest. He's the top option at 2B and I'll be doing my best to fit him in all formats. As of now, it looks like that won't be a problem.

Jose Ramirez FD 3400 DK 5100
Opponent - DET (Bell) Park - @DET
FD - 12.41 DK - 10.15

We haven't touched on the Indians yet and we won't again, but they are in play. They face off with Chad Bell, who is more of an unknown at this point. I'm perfectly fine with an Indians stack if you want to attack this 28-year-old rookie and don't believe he can jump into the majors and slow down the Cleveland Indians. Bell, who has bounced around the minors for 8 years, does deserve a shot. He's been decent in AA for a long time and with the Tigers being so atrocious, you might as well give him a shot. As a lefty, he was worse in the minors against righties, but still gave up power to left-handers. Jose Ramirez, who can hit from both sides, prefers righties with a .387 wOBA. Ramirez may be expensive, but he's cheaper than Altuve and you should have no problem with funds on a slate where Mike Fiers is a top option. Comerica park isn't great for hitting, but it's not bad either. Ramirez is a solid play in both formats and even on DK in tourneys where he is far overpriced.

Shortstop

Marwin Gonzalez FD 2700 DK 3300
Opponent - NYM (Flexen) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.23 DK - 8.84

Shortstop is pretty ugly tonight, so we have to take who we can get and move on. Marwin Gonzalez is way too cheap for this match-up with Chris Flexen and the Mets. We touched on Flexen a bit earlier and there isn't much else to say. He's a very young prospect who is far from ready for the majors. Gonzalez has held a .394 wOBA against righties and has hit 17 homers against them. If you can tell me why he's so cheap, I'd love to know. He'll be hitting right behind the likes of Altuve and Reddick and I'd be surprised to see less than 2 or 3 RBI opportunities. I have been playing Marwin a ton recently and it works out very consistently. While I do think he'll be highly owned, I think that a lot. You really don't know how people will go at an SS position that has a lot of so-so options that fit into stacks (Andrus, Story, Simmons). This entire Astros team is one you'll want exposure to and Gonzales gives you that ability at a crazily affordable price tag.

Andrelton Simmons FD 3300 DK 4200
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.14 DK - 9.89

Trust me, I'm not a big fan of rostering Andrelton Simmons. If you pay attention to his ownership, not many people are. Why? Because he made a name for himself in Atlanta as a guy who was superb in the field but had a better chance with a toothpick at the plate. For god's sake, he held a .206 wOBA a few years ago. Are people supposed to now think he's some great hitter, because I know I've had my hesitance? However, I think ee have to fully trust the current numbers at this point. He's a much different hitter and has focused his efforts in the top of the zone, where he's held a .409 batting average. Martin Perez, as we've talked about, has some mighty struggles against righties. We'll get to the almighty Trout in a little bit, but spoiler alert, he's a pretty good play. The Angels are a team you can stack in hopes for some baserunners and a few HR's to drive them in. Against Martin Perez, a "few" homers aren't too ambitious. Maybe it is for Trout, but we'll have to see. As for Simmons, he's priced well and is a must play if you think about stacking the Angels. he's definitely a glue guy that helps the team flow.

Third Base

Kris Bryant FD 4600 DK 5000
Opponent - ATL (Fried) Park - @CHC
FD - 14.82 DK - 11.35

You can go a lot of different ways at 3B, and Nolan Arenado is the only guy comparable to Bryant. While it may seem like I'm not listing much value, you don't need it. The pitching options are cheap and in turn, let you spend up for bats. The Cubs are expected to put up some runs tonight and against a lefty, Bryant usually has a lot to do with it. He's sported a .414 wOBA against lefties and has hit them for a 46% hard contact rate. There's no real arguing against Bryant and in the end, it comes down to pricing and what you can afford. He'll be facing off with Max Friend, who is a solid prospect, but by no means ready for the big show. He sported a 4.62 xFIP in AA and walked 4.47 batters per 9, while K'ing just 7. He will now move into Wrigley Field and face off with the Chicago Cubs.  They aren't one of my top stacks of the night, but they deserve some consideration. They have been putting up a heaping of runs and it's never a bad idea to get exposure to a streaky hitting Cubs lineup. Bryant is right up there with Trout for HR of the night.

Jake Lamb FD 4200 DK 4900
Opponent - COL (Marquez) Park - @COL
FD - 14.06 DK - 10.71

If Kris Bryant against a young lefty doesn't float your boat for whatever reason, Jake Lamb definitely should. If neither do, go ahead and check your process. Lamb and the Diamondbacks are in Coors Field and face off with German Marquez. Marquez is actually a very good young arms, but he's had inevitable trouble in Coors Field. Even the best pitchers in baseball struggle to last 6 innings here. I actually don't love the Diamondbacks stack tonight, but only because of the prices and expected ownership. Lamb, however, is one of my favorite plays on the slate. He's sported a .394 wOBA and has hit 22 homers against righties. He's cheaper than he should be and in Coors Field, an HR is a very real possibility. So is two. I still like Bryant a bit more, but not to the point where I'll be fading Lamb. I will have him in both cash games and tournaments.

Outfield

Mike Trout FD 4800 DK 5700
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 16.92 DK - 13.21
Justin Upton FD 3500 DK 4700
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 14.54 DK - 11.33

Boy, I am very excited for this. MIke Trout against Martin Perez is one of those at-bats you shouldn't miss. It just matches up perfectly. Perez, a schemey left-hander, lives in the bottom of the zone. In an ideal world, he doesn't throw one above the half line until the 3rd or 4th inning, when he starts doubling through the order. I don't think he makes it that far, however, and the Angels do some real damage. As we know, Mike Trout is the best baseball player in the galaxy and only has amplified numbers in the lower half of the zone. So far in 2017, Trout has held a .410 wOBA against lefties and has 27 homers. It may get easy to get lost in the sauce, but we're witnessing a guy that will identify this era for centuries. As for Justin Upton, he simply destroys lefties (.396 wOBA). He moves into averyy friendly ballpark and has a phenomenal chance to hit one out against Perez. We've touched on Perez enough, but just watch the game and you'll see what's going on. Get some Mike Trout in your lineup.

George Springer FD 3700 DK 4800
Opponent - NYM (Flexen) Park - @HOU
FD - 14.08 DK - 10.94
Josh Reddick FD 3500 DK 4300
Opponent - NYM (Flexen) Park - @HOU
FD - 13.27 DK - 10.43

We haven't touched on the Astros a whole lot, but they are probably the top offense on this early slate. Chris Flexen has been absolutely horrible and this Astros lineup is one of the most dangerous. When I say Flexen has been horrible, that's a big understatement. Flexen has allowed a .417 combined wOBA and has a huge issue with the long ball. He moves from Citi Field to Minute Maid Park, so you can combo the insane match-up with a ballpark downgrade. Oh yea, he's also extremely young and about 2 years from being ready. I could have gone with any of the Astros OF'ers here and you can take your pick(s) once the lineup comes out. Springer and Reddick are going to be the cream of the crop and are some of the top plays on the entire slate. They are far too cheap on FD and they will be a big part of my cash games and tournaments. Lower in the order, we may see a Cameron Maybin with a ton of upside at a much lower ownership. To sum it all up, get some exposure to the Astros.

Matt Kemp FD 2600 DK 3100
Opponent - CHC (Montgomery) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.11 DK - 6.95

I'll roster Matt Kemp at these prices against a lefty 100/100 times. While he's nowhere near the hitter he once was, he's still a dominant right-handed power bat in Wrigley Field facing off with a low-ball lefty. If you know Kemp, that's a good thing. Kemp hasn't played much this year, so looking back to 2016, he posted a .387 wOBA and hit 35 total homers. He paired that up with a .548 wOBA against lefties in the bottom third. If Montgomery tries to lean on his classic arsenal and pattern, Kemp will send one to the moon. If Montgomery does his research, he'll pitch around Kemp and work on the lefties. Worst-case scenario, I see Kemp putting up some points. His price is far too low and while he'll be expensive, I think you eat the chalk in cash games. There's obviously merit in completely fading as well. This is baseball and Matt Kemp.

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