Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/1/17

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Pitcher

Jimmy Nelson FD 8500 DK 8400
Opponent - WSH (Roark) Park - @MIL
FD - 33.63 DK - 22.29

My top pitcher comes from the mid tier tonight thanks to Kershaw being on a pitch count. Nelson enters the night with a 10.0 K/9 rate and 11.2% swinging strike rate and has the second best xFIP(3.19) on the entire slate. The matchup is a little scary tonight as the Nats have been heating up again over the last week with a .340 wOBA and 106 wRC+ but last time he faced the Nats, with Bryce Harper, he struck out 10 over seven innings allowing just two earned runs. All things considered, he is in play in all formats.
Gerrit Cole FD 9100 DK 11100
Opponent - CIN (Castillo) Park - @PIT
FD - 34.8 DK - 22.9

Cole slides into the two spot in salary tonight and with Kershaw's pitch count, will likely be higher owned than he should be considering the price.The good news is that he goes deep into games(6.2 average innings per start) and has flashed upside but has been a roller coaster ride all season with big highs and big lows. He proved this in his last start where he shut out these Reds over seven innings striking out six and walking none. This after allowing nine earned runs over his previous two starts including four home runs. This makes him a GPP only option tonight on both sites.

Catcher

J.T. Realmuto FD 2800 DK 3500
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @MIA
FD - 10.41 DK - 9.11

As long as Realmuto keeps hitting in the top 6 of the Marlins lineup I will continue to roll him out there at his value price. Tonight I feel even more confident with him in all formats considering he has been a reverse split hitter for his career and is facing Nick Pivetta who has been a disaster vs. right-handed batters giving up a .423 wOBA and .642 slugging % on the season. With a combination of value pitching and Realmuto, you can load up with elite bats at almost every other position tonight.

Chris Iannetta FD 3500 DK 3500
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 12.04 DK - 8.96

It is pretty cut and dry for me at the catcher position barring one of these two not being in the lineup come lock. Realmuto is the safer choice for cash games but Iannetta gets a bump in upside tonight considering he gets to take his swings in Coors Field and absolutely crushes left-handed pitching to the tune of a .423 wOBA and 157 wRC+. The risk is there as Freeland has been better at home(weird right?) but I would expect that to normalize over time and the price on Iannetta is more than worth the risk.

Also consider Gary Sanchez(NYY) if you have the salary and looking for ultimate upside at the position

First Base

Paul Goldschmidt FD 5400 DK 5600
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 16.49 DK - 12.98

The value at the pitcher position tonight makes it very easy to pay up for elite bats and my top overall player, regardless of position, is Paul Goldschmidt. He went into Thursday nights game vs. the Dodgers with home runs in four of his last five games and now gets to go to Coors Field where he has posted over a career .320/.409/.560 slash line. He has also been deadly vs. left-handed pitching with a .420 wOBA, 155 wRC+, and a crazy 50% hard contact rate. He is putting the team on his back en route to the playoffs and is a safe DFS option in all formats.

Albert Pujols FD 3100 DK 3700
Opponent - TEX (Hamels) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.06 DK - 9.28

If you are looking for value turn to future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols tonight. He has seen a serious decline this season but has been fairly consistent lately with hits in 14 of his last 18 games and multi-hit games in three of his last five. The matchup is a tough one to read as Cole Hamels has also seen a big decline this year as he enters tonight with a career low 5.5 K/9 rate and 4.89 xFIP. I am willing to take the risk with Pujols, especially on FanDuel where the price is south of $3K tonight.
Chris Davis FD 3700 DK 3800
Opponent - TOR (Biagini) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.16 DK - 8.97

With a 36% strikeout rate and .226 average, Chris Davis has been pushed down the lineup in the second half but that doesn't mean he isn't a strong GPP play. He has been routinely under 10% owned and has been decent lately collecting hits in 12 of his last 16 games with four home runs and gets an elite matchup tonight. He will go up against Joe Biagini who is back in the rotation and has struggled as a starter giving up four or more earned runs in four of his last five starts with six home runs against. He has also been much worse against left-handed batters with a .344 wOBA against(.305 vs. RH). This game has the potential to be one of the highest scoring of the night and Davis should get strong consideration at first base.

Also Consider: Logan Morrison(TB)

Second Base

Jonathan Schoop FD 4100 DK 4600
Opponent - TOR (Biagini) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.44 DK - 9.48

While Crush Davis has struggled and has been moved down the lineup, the opposite has happened for Schoop. He was moved up to the three-hole in late June and has thrived in the new role with a .319/.363/.546 slash line with 16 home runs and 56 RBI. It also helps to be surrounded by other thriving players and that holds true as the O's have been the hottest team in the league since the All Star break. While the price has held steady on FanDuel under $4K, he has seen it drop back into the mid $4K range on DraftKings making him a nice target in all formats tonight.

Brad Miller FD 2700 DK 3100
Opponent - CHW (Lopez) Park - @CHW
FD - 9.56 DK - 7.5

Despite hitting down in the order, Miller provides a huge salary relief tonight allowing you to pair value pitchers with multiple elite bats(ie. Goldschmidt, Rizzo, Trout). He has struggled overall with an average south of the Mendoza Line but comes in hot with hits in five straight games including two home runs. He gets a plus matchup vs. rookie Reynaldo Lopez who has been less than impressive in his first two starts allowing eight earned runs including three long balls.

Also Consider: Dee Gordon(MIA)

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor FD 4300 DK 5100
Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @DET
FD - 10.54 DK - 8.46

With the steep price tag tonight he sits down on the PTS/$ rankings but is right up there when looking at raw points projections. It makes perfect sense as he has crushed southpaws this season to the tune of a .382 wOBA and 138 wRC+ and faces struggling Matt Boyd who somehow still holds a rotation spot for the Tigers. He enters this start with a 6.13 ERA and 5.13 xFIP thanks to giving up four or more earned runs in five of his last six starts. With the value at pitching it makes sense to pay up for Lindor in a dream matchup in all formats.

**Update-Lindor and the Indians will face Matt Boyd in the first game and Buck Farmer in the second. Lindor is in play vs both**

Jean Segura FD 2700 DK 4000
Opponent - OAK (Manaea) Park - @SEA
FD - 9.22 DK - 7.92

The key here is the difference in price between the sites as Segura is a GPP only play on DraftKings but at a sub $3K price tag on FanDuel he can be considered in all formats. He has fallen off in the second half but has still managed to keep the average right around .300 and we are all well aware of his talent level. He still gets to take his swings in the leadoff spot and gets a boost tonight vs. a struggling Sean Manaea who gives up a wOBA(.342) 68 points higher to right-handed batters and Segura has also shown positive splits vs. southpaws.

Also Consider: Elvis Andrus(TEX)

 

Third Base

Josh Donaldson FD 3400 DK 4300
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.02 DK - 9.03

I am going back to the well with Donaldson once again tonight and what stood out the most was the $500 decrease in his Draftkings salary. He didn't add to his home run total last night but still managed to rack up fantasy points with a double, three walks, an RBI, and three runs scored. While I preferred the matchup vs. Hellickson who has been a dumpster fire, tonight's matchup isn't so shabby either. Gausman is another pitcher who has flashed at times but overall has been average, at best, with a 4.98 ERA, 4.56 xFIP and the best part about targeting against him is that he gives up the long ball(15.7% HR/FB rate). At these prices, I trust JD20 in all formats.

Evan Longoria FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - CHW (Lopez) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.23 DK - 9.42

Facing rookie Reynaldo Lopez, the Rays sit in a prime spot tonight. While I will mostly be targeting the left-handed bats, Longoria is always at the top of my Rays list against righties as he has put up some crooked splits this season. Lopez has flashed the upside he showed us in the minors with 12 strikeouts in his first two starts but has got into trouble walking seven which has led to eight earned runs against(3 HR) and a rough start to his career. The best part is the Rays come at an affordable cost which has Longo right near the top of the PTS/$ rankings at the third base position tonight.

Also Consider: Kris Bryant(CHC), Ryon Healy(OAK)

 

Outfield

A.J. Pollock FD 4600 DK 4800
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 13.8 DK - 11.68
J.D. Martinez FD 5000 DK 5200
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 14.77 DK - 11.24

Back to Coors to lead off the outfield plays tonight. I talked about how Goldy is my top play of the night, regardless of position and Pollock and Martinez make excellent plays that hit before and after him in the lineup. With Freeland being better at home I will likely avoid stacking all three in my cash lineups but will make sure to get them all in GPP's to maximize the upside. For cash games, I lean Pollock who hits two spots up in the order, in front of Goldy, and strikes out 26% less vs. left-handed pitching. Martinez is the high-upside GPP play you want in your lineup as he has destroyed left-handed pitching this season with a .455 wOBA, 178 wRC+, and unfathomable .414 Isolated Power number.

Mike Trout FD 4800 DK 5500
Opponent - TEX (Hamels) Park - @TEX
FD - 15.56 DK - 12.14

With Hamels inability to strike anyone out it only helps the cause of the best player in baseball when looking at his outlook tonight. Since returning from his injury after the All Star break Trout has been on another level with an elite .315/.457/.582 slash line and will soon have enough qualified at-bats to be a real player in the MVP race. It won't be easy, however, even with Judge falling off as he still trails Jose Altuve in the WAR category but in 40 fewer games is very close in RBI and runs scored and has 27 home runs and also owns a .399 wOBA and 155 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. Again, the value at pitcher allows us to easily pay up for one or two of the game's superstars tonight.

Melky Cabrera FD 2800 DK 3200
Opponent - MIN (Gee) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.18 DK - 8

The price for Melky seems oddly low considering he has been very consistent all season with a .292/.332/437 slash line and has also added some pop with 16 home runs. He has hits in 21 of 28 games he has played in August and on top of that, 10 of those games were of the multi-hit variety. Melky and the Royals also get a nice matchup vs. Dillon Gee who is making his third start in a row after spending most of the season coming out of the bullpen. He looked alright in his first start going six innings allowing just one solo home run but was touched up for seven hits and four earned runs in his last start including two long balls. Safe in all formats.

Also Consider: Rhys Hoskins(PHI), Kevin Kiermaier(TB)

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