08/20/2017

Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/20/17

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Pitcher

Madison Bumgarner FD 10400 DK 12400
Opponent - PHI (Lively) Park - @SF
FD - 41.74 DK - 27.58

There is no better situation for Madison Bumgarner. He's at home facing off with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are the worst team in baseball and are absolutely horrible against lefties. They've ranked 25th in the league with a .299 wOBA and 21% strikeout rate. They have absolutely no power and will struggle to put up runs in this spacious park. Bumgarner is the same guys he has been for the past couple years. Since the start of the season, he's held a .281 wOBA and 21% K rate. AT&T Park is the best park in baseball in limiting runs and this Phillies team is going to have bundles of trouble. Bumgarner is one of the best pitchers in baseball and we can't forget that just because he hasn't done a lot recently. He's the top option in both formats and I don't see it as too close. He will definitely cost you a pretty penny and it'll just come down to how you value your salary. If you're looking for safety, you should probably pay up. Pitchers are far more predictable than hitters and there is also a greater opportunity cost with only 1 on the roster.

Jacob deGrom FD 10400 DK 12700
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @NYM
FD - 38.11 DK - 25.06

I don't see this as a day to pay down for pitcher(s). While I'll certainly touch on a guy who you can take a flier on in the low-end, it won't be fun. deGrom is the 2nd best play on this slate and he is the same price as Madison Bumgarner. deGrom and the Mets will face off with the lowly Miami Marlins in Citi Field. They have 3 good hitters and 6 poor ones. While definitely a tall task, if deGrom can find a way to get around Stanton, Ozuna, and Yelich, he will be on his way to a dominant outing. As a team, the Marlins rank 15th against righties with a high K%. Even if one of the big 3 does tag deGrom, I don't see him getting flustered and letting it bother the rest of his start. deGrom has been absolutely phenomenal this season with a combined .288 wOBA and 10+ K/9. He can go 9 innings and will more than likely last at least 7. Terry Collins is willing to push him to around 115 pitches and I do think he lasts that long against the Marlins. If you are looking for a pivot from Bumgarner or don't like the match-up for some reason, deGrom is an exquisite pivot. Don't be scared by the Marlins.

Catcher

Buster Posey FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - PHI (Lively) Park - @SF
FD - 11.04 DK - 8.55

Catcher is always one of those positions that you can go a lot of different ways with. If you're good, you can make a lot of money and play on some very prestigious teams. Fortunately for Buster Posey, he's the best catcher in this league. He sees Ben Lively tonight, who is just not a good pitcher. He's not a good control arm and he is very picky when it comes to his spots. This will often lead to falling behind in the count and making a mistake. Posey and the Giants hold an implied team total over 5 and are a team I'm a huge fan of. Mark Leiter Jr. was originally scheduled to start this game, but Lively has been given the reigns and will likely drop them. Lively is worse than Leiter and this Giants team can absolutely be stacked. Posey is the top option of the day at catcher and you should have exposure in all formats.

Jonathan Lucroy FD 3300 DK 3700
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @COL
FD - 11.92 DK - 9.29

If you feel the need to pay down at catcher, just wait until lineups come out and go with a guy that finds himself a bit higher in the order than usual. Ther are always 3 or 4 on Sundays, when most starters take a break. If you do have the funds and are looking to pivot from Posey, Jonathan Lucroy is obviously a great target in Coors Field. Lucroy has been a lot better against righties over the last couple years and has sported a .327 wOBA since 2016. He's definitely struggling compared to his old self, but is still one of the better hitting catchers out there. He faces off with Chase Anderson, who is a righty with reverse splits. He has a bit of trouble with HR's and moving to Coors Field will certainly not help. I do prefer Posey in both formats, but Lucroy will be more popular and it makes sense why people will be on him. Coors Field is attractive at a position without much to offer.

First Base

Joey Gallo FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @TEX
FD - 14.13 DK - 10.654

The Texas Rangers have been in play for what seems like 4 weeks in a row now. They aren't as big of a deal tonight, as Miguel Gonzalez is a far better pitcher than the likes of James Shields and Derek Holland. That's not to say Gonzalez will throw a clean slate, either. He will surely give up a couple runs and Joey Gallo looks to be the best candidate to take advantage. Gonzalez has allowed a .316 wOBA and he has had some HR issues, which will translate poorly into Coors Field. Gallo is going to hit at least 40 home runs this year, so he should definitely be around if you're looking for upside with the Rangers. As for a 1 off, Gallo is s great way to go. He can hit 2 HR on any night and will have some extra RBI opportunities tonight. He's a strong option in both cash games and tournaments.

Jesus Aguilar FD 3100 DK 3900
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 13.12 DK - 9.86

This Jesus Aguilar pick is pretty obvious. In Coors Field, we see the Rockies and Brewers face off. Kyle Freeland, a lefty, will take the mound here for the Rockies. The Brewers as a team are far better against lefties and so is Jesus Aguilar with some huge power numbers to get things going. Aguilar is way too cheap for Coors Field when you consider he's posted a .385 wOBA against lefties. He will be right in the heart of the order and one of the more popular plays around. Kyle Freeland, who we will touch on later, is bad against righties. The Brewers can obviously be stacked and you need to make sure you play Aguilar in each and every combo of her. All in all, he's a great option in all formats.

Second Base

Jason Kipnis FD 3200 DK 4500
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @KC
FD - 10.9 DK - 8.66

2nd base is one of the weaker positions on the slate. Jason Kipnis is going to start us off here with some basic tests and drills. The Royals will toss Jason Hammel today, who is a very lackluster arm. He's held a .331 combined wOBA and has had some serious issues with the long ball. While he may not be nearly as bad as some of the White Sox arms, he's still not good. Kipnis has held a .379 wOBA against righties over the last 3 years and has the rare speed + power combo that is lethal in all formats. The price is there and so is the production! Kipnis is one of the most consistent left-handed bats around and you will very rarely regret taking him.

Wilmer Flores FD 3000 DK 3700
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.72 DK - 8.34

The Mets aren't a team we're huge on tonight, but you have to love a few of these 1-off righties in tournaments. Adam Conley is a very average pitcher and he has no problem giving up a few homers to righties. Through just 50 short innings on the season, he's posted a .334 wOBA and 37% hard contact rate against righties. He's also worse on the road and only strikes out 6 batters per 9 innings. If you were to build an "average lefty starter", you get Adam Conley. Wilmer Flores may not jump off the page at you, but he is exceptional against lefties. He's sported a .341 wOBA since the start of the season and has 6 homers in under 100 at-bats. The price is a bit too low on Flores and I don't think he'll be popular either. You should be able to scoop him for around 10% and have a great shot at an HR at a weak position.

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Shortstop

Marwin Gonzalez FD 3000 DK 4400
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.68 DK - 9.18

Shortstop is one of those positions without a whole lot offer. While we definitely have a couple choices, there's only a few that stand out. Marwin Gonzalez has jumped around the diamond like crazy and he can play almost every position on the field. Gonzalez is a switch-hitter who has been great against both sides of the plate. Jharel Cotton will man the rubber here as an arm that isn't very good. He's allowed a .361 wOBA combined and a 25% hard contact rate. The Astros are an absolutely lethal offense and I do see them putting some runs together. Gonzalez is sitting right behind the big bats and should be able to find plenty of RBI opportunities. He never takes a backseat and is always out there trying to facilitate things. Gonzalez is an elite play in all formats and one that should be paid attention to.

Zack Cozart FD 3400 DK 4300
Opponent - ATL (Newcomb) Park - @ATL
FD - 11.59 DK - 9.01

The Reds, like the Mets, are a team I'll be looking for 1-off pivots from. They have some HR upside against Newcomb in ATL, but I don't necessarily trust the entire offense. Zack Cozart, in particular, is an absolute monster against southpaws. Since the start of the season, he's posted a monstrous .477 wOBA against lefties and has backed it up with equally impressive peripherals (40% hard contact, 25% line drive). The ball has flown out at SunTrust so far and as someone who has gone to about 10 games, I can confirm. I saw Marcus Stroman send one about 380 feet on a changeup. He'll face off with Sean Newcomb, who is a good pitcher. He's a young prospect with promise and a lot to learn. He's held a .342 wOBA against lefties and has allowed 8 homers in just 46 innings. The price on Cozart is fair and he will not be popular. Sean Newcomb isn't a pitcher people like to target and the Reds on the road are often ignored. Cozart and Gonzalez are 1a and 1b for me and I haven't decided which will end up in my cash games.

Third Base

Jake Lamb FD 3700 DK 4600
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.42 DK - 7.94

Bartolo Colon is back on the mound today and we have to make sure we don't Ignore him. I think Colon is one of the worst pitchers in the league and will be out of the league within months. Colon has sported a .411 wOBA and sub 12% strikeout rate against left-handed hitting. He only has 1 good pitch and it's just a slow fastball. Other than that, he has 3 offspeed pitches that basically do the same thing, go down. It's not good enough against Jake Lamb as he will make the best of the best pay for mistakes. Colon faces off with the Diamondbacks here in Target Field. Lamb is the best bat on this team against righties and will be lesser owned than he should be. While it's a better park than Chase, it's nowhere to play around. Lamb is the top overall 3B play on the slate and his price is very fair across the industry. If you have the funds and availability, go Lamb or Arenado.

Nolan Arenado FD 4700 DK 5500
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @COL
FD - 16.82 DK - 12.85

Third base isn't a spot I plan on paying down. I don't think you can afford to ignore this upper-tier in cash games. If you don't like Lamb against the soft-tossing Bartolo Colon, you can look at Nolan Arenado in Coors Field. He's facing off with a reverse-splits righty that has HR issues at Miller Park. He might not be a horrible pitcher, but his game doesn't fit in Coors Field. Anderson is allowing righties to hit the ball hard over 32% of the time and is striking out less than 7 per 9 innings. Arenado has been great against righties on the season with a .357 wOBA that jumps to a .392 at home. The price is high and the ownership will be low as a result. He's one of the top HR candidates of the night and you'll be able to get him at around 10-15%. If you're paying up for a pitcher, you are probably better off with Jake Lamb, but if you can fit Arenado, go for it.

Outfield

Ryan Braun FD 4500 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 15.77 DK - 12.47
Domingo Santana FD 3900 DK 4300
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 14.18 DK - 10.98

When a subpar lefty is tossing in Coors Field, you play Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana. They both demolish lefties and now step into the best hitters park in the league. In less than 100 innings, both Santana and Braun have held .382+ wOBA's against lefties. Both Braun and Santana seem to be in a lot of pain moving forward as if they were our kids. If I had to take 1, it's Braun. Santana is a bit of a tag-along, though I do completely trust him. They face off with the one and only Kyle Freeland, who is very smart, yet bad. He's allowed a .362 wOBA to righties and has given up HR after HR. The Brewers are one of the top stacks of the night and Kyle Freeland is the last pitcher in ever scared of.

George Springer FD 3900 DK 5200
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @HOU
FD - 14.9 DK - 11.61
Josh Reddick FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @HOU
FD - 13.43 DK - 10.55

You can always count on the Astros to bring a little excitement to the ring. Per usual, all of the OF'ers are gone and things are starting to calm back down. Jharel Cotton and the Athletics come into town and are hoping to shut down the 'Stros insanely lethal offense. Cotton is absolutely horrible and he knows it. He's allowed a .364 combined wOBA and I have n0 sympathy for him in any sense of the word. Josh Reddick and George Springer are my favorite, but you can look at some other options as well. The Astros as a team are projected to put up nearly 6 runs and these OF's will be in the heart of it all. They are both elite options in both cash games and tournaments.

Shin-Soo Choo FD 3100 DK 4100
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @TEX
FD - 14.18 DK - 11.11

Shin-Soo Choo is quite the ballplayer. After disappointing for a few days, he went full beast mode. He went 4 for 5 with an HR and 4 runs scored. The Rangers will hold back today and face off with Miguel Gonzalez, who is all but intimidating. Choo, in particular, has hit righties quite well with a .343 wOBA. He's starting to get his power stroke and I do think the HR will gradually return with consistency. As for Miguel Gonzalez, you can't get any more boring. He's always sitting around that .310 wOBA number, though he never really does much damage. Choo is going to be popular and rightfully so. On FanDuel, he's almost a lock in your cash games.

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3 Visitor Comments

Steve 08/20/2017

That Philles @ Giants game went bad for Blach in a hurry yesterday. Pinch hit grand slam by Kelly in the 6th. Oh well today is a new day in the DFS world. Thanks for the free picks guys!!!

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Steve 08/20/2017

The Slam was off of Gearrin though. Texas sure did come thru in a big way last night!

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Steve 08/20/2017

I don’t get where you wrote Oakland is coming into Houston talking garbage? You must mean playing like garbage.

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