08/16/2017

Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/16/17

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Pitcher

Yu Darvish FD 9800 DK 13700
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @LAD
FD - 44.62 DK - 29.43

The baseball gods have been throwing some very interesting slates at us and it won't stop today. To start us off, we have a very intriguing 6 game early slate that will draw interest. Starting at the typical 7 PM slate time, we have a 9 game slate. A slate that consists of just 3 teams projected to score under 4.20 runs. The offenses should run rampant on this slate and a good pitcher will be at a premium in both cash games and tournaments. The safest of them all is Yu Darvish. Darvish and the Dodgers host the White Sox, who have been one of the bottom barrel teams in the sport against righties. Since the start of the season, they have ranked 3rd worst with a .305 wOBA and 23% strikeout rate. They now move into a pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium where Darvish figures to dominate. They're projected for just 2.71 runs, at the lowest by far. We know how good Darvish can be, but he's also shown consistency this season. A 3.64 xFIP and 10.15 K/9 are extremely impressive in Globe Life Park and with him moving to one of the top pitcher parks in the game, I fully expect Darvish to make that leap to top-end elite starting pitchers. As for tonight, play him.

Marcus Stroman FD 8300 DK 11600
Opponent - TB (Faria) Park - @TOR
FD - 33.53 DK - 22.15

As your SP2 on DK or pivot on FD, both Carrasco and Stroman are worth considering. The projection system is slightly leaning Marcus Stroman and I definitely agree. While Salazar showed the exact upside Carrasco can have against the Twins just tonight, I don't think it's nearly the match-up Stroman has. Stroman and the Jays move to Tampa to face off with the god-awful Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays strikeout 25.2% of the time and have given up some monster performances on the season. Stroman is a guy you don't want to go out of your way to target, but also don't want to ignore when in the right match-up. He can go for an easy 7 innings and 7 K's and never blink an eye. He can also get a little bit wild, but I fear that far less against a Rays team who are already striking out swinging in their dreams. Stroman may not be just as safe as Carrasco, though it's close and the upside is identical. Get some exposure to both and call it day.

Early - Jimmy Nelson, Jose Urena

Catcher

Austin Barnes FD 2500 DK 3400
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.91 DK - 7.85

It looks like Austin Barnes may have himself a spot against lefties. While it's extremely hard to sit a guy like Yasmani Grandal, who's a switch-hitter and one of the top pitcher framers in baseball, it's even harder to ignore a young catcher who is mashing lefties and has the ability to play behind the plate. Especially when said switch-hitter is far worse against lefties. Austin Barnes may not stand out as a guy you want to target, but that's just his reputation. It's not indicative of his numbers or performance. Against leftie, Barnes has held a .395 wOBA. He's also held a .291 BABIP, so you definitely can't call it a fluke. Carlos Rodon isn't a bad pitcher, but he's worse against righties (.361 wOBA) and does struggle with the long ball. Barnes is super cheap and makes for an excellent option in both formats.

Alex Avila FD 2500 DK 3800
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @CHC
FD - 4.64 DK - 3.5

With Wilson Contreras on the DL, the Cubs are sure glad they upgraded from Miguel Montero to Alex Avila. While Montero is a great spark plug off the bench and behind the plate, he can't play every day. Avila is a consistent catcher who can take a beating and throw on the gear the next morning. Oh yea, he's also elite against righties with a .386 wOBA. Homer Bailey is simply horrible and we will touch on him plenty as we move on. He's allowed a .380+ wOBA to both sides of the plate, so don't be worried about anything. Avila is one of my favorite bats to roster and he will be a staple in 50% of my cash games, with Barnes filling out the other half. He will be in even more of my tournaments as I see him being on earth of the top candidates for a long ball at the position.

Early - J.T Realmuto

First Base

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3500 DK 5300
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.76 DK - 9.51

First base is a very interesting position with a whole lot more to offer than just some homers. Edwin Encarnacion sees a phenomenal match-up with Kyle Gibson in what figures to be a high-scoring game. Gibson has posted a .374 wOBA so far against righties and they fear it could only get worse. Encarnacion has unreal power and can park 2 in the seats without even trying.. Encarnacion has actually been better against righties for a few years now and the power is enormous. Encarnacion and many others are in play at this position, but none stand out like must plays in any format. Encarnacion has a very fair price on FanDuel and he will be my most heavy owned arm. Kyle Gibson is horrible and the Indians will have a prime opportunity to take him over. Encarnacion is my pick for HR of the night.

Anthony Rizzo FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @CHC
FD - 12.91 DK - 9.85

The Cubs don't have an implied total just yet, mostly due to this game being played in Wrigley Field, where wind speed and direction strongly influence the total. I expect the Cubs to end up with a total between 5-6 and end up going over it. Homer Bailey is undoubtedly one of the worst pitchers on the entire slate and you have to target a lineup as lethal as the Cubs against him. Anthony Rizzo is the head of the monster and certainly the best bat against righties. He's sported a .382 wOBA over the last 2 years and has as much HR upside as anyone. Homer Bailey has held a .417 wOBA against lefties over his last 50 innings and has shown absolutely no signs of improving. The Cubs are easily one of the best offenses on this slate and I'll have exposure in all formats.

Early - Tommy Joseph, Eric Hosmer

Second Base

Rougned Odor FD 2600 DK 3500
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.38 DK - 9.12

It seems like there are more insanely bad pitchers in the MLB right now than usual. On most nights, you can pick out 2 or 3 guys who have no place in the majors. Anibal Sanchez is certainly one of those guys tonight and there is no arguing that. He has been utterly awful against both sides of the plate in over 70 innings on the season. He's allowed a .381 combined wOBA and 21 total home runs. He now moves into one of the friendliest ballparks for hitting and in the summer, the ball flies. The Rangers hold an implied team total over 6 and are certainly right up there as a top offense. Odor, in particular, is a guy I typically restrict for tournaments While he's quite the play there s well, I like him in cash games too. The price is too low and Sanchez is simply too bad.

Jason Kipnis FD 2500 DK 4000
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.7 DK - 8.54

Jason Kipnis is an interesting one. While he has struggled a bit in the early season, I like him a ton against righties. Over the last 2 years, Kipnis has sported a .368 wOBA against righties while striking out under 20% of the time. Kipnis has HR and SB upside at a position that lacks both. Kipnis may be expensive, but it works and it takes time. He will be around 15-20% owned and make for a dish later on. Kyle Gibson is a horrible pitcher and I'm not sure these Cleveland Indians even respect him. They should run all over him and do whatever is pleased.

Early - Robinson Cano

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Shortstop

Francisco Lindor FD 4000 DK 4700
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.8 DK - 9.52

If you're looking to call off your Indians exposure, close your eyes and pray. This isn't a team I'm willing to fade and one I in fact love. Francisco Lindor does fantastic work as promised, after struggling to do every task asked for a few weeks. Lindor has held a .378 wOBA against righties since the start of 2016 and should be treated like an elite youngster. Kyle Gibson is a bottom of the pack MLB starter and it will be out of the league before we know. The price is steep, but not over done. If you can afford it, Lindor will be lesser owned and has shown some intense upside.

Elvis Andrus FD 4200 DK 5400
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.31 DK - 9.77

When looking at Anibal Sanchez and the numbers, it's hard not to laugh. You simply don't see a guy this horrible get 70 innings in a rotation. I have no idea how the Tigers can be this bad and how they can't find any beating human heart in the minors with some potential. Either way, we need to target Sanchez every time he takes the hill. Against righties, Sanchez has held a .409 wOBA. He's given up 12 homers in just 37 innings and now moves into a top 5 hitting ballpark. Elvis Andrus is actually better against righties with a .355 wOBA and has far more power against them. This team will be very popular and rightfully so. With that being said, the price on Andrus is spiked and it'll be interesting to see how many are able to bite the bullet and pay up.

Early - Jean Segura, Marcus Semien

Third Base

Jedd Gyorko FD 2900 DK 4100
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.86 DK - 8.36

Third base is definitely one of the weaker positions on this slate and you have to bear with me here. To start, Jedd Gyorko is the guy. Historically, he has demolished left-handed pitching and faces off with a bad one now. Since 2015, Gyorko has held a .371 wOBA against lefties. He has evened those numbers out a bit this year, but not by much. He's facing off with Eduardo Rodriguez and the Red Sox, who are very average bullpen. E-Rod is a talented young pitcher that struggles against right-handlers. He's the only Cardinal we've posted, but I'm fine as a 1-off in both formats. It'll be interesting to see where Gyorko comes in ownership-wise, but I don't think it'll be high. His name recognition isn't high and people will be tempted to pay up for the new superstars.

Justin Turner FD 3900 DK 4700
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.72 DK - 8.31

If you've had a chance to look at the numbers Justin Turner is sporting against lefties this year, this won't need much explaining. In 140 plate appearances, he has held an insane .508 wOBA. Yes, .508. Looking deeper, he's hitting the ball hard 46% of the time and striking out just 8%. He has probably been the most efficient hitter in baseball against lefties this season and I'm not sure you can call it a fluke in any capacity. The peripherals look good and .350 BABIP isn't too high. He faces off with Carlos Rodon tonight, who is a young and talented left-hander. He does struggle against righties, however, and has already given up 7 homers and a .335 wOBA in just 35 innings. Turner is definitely expensive and you won't be able to fit him if you pay up for Darvish. If you do have the funds, I expect Turner to be around 15% owned and one of the best tourney options on the entire slate.

Early - Manny Machado, Maikel Franco

Outfield

Shin-Soo Choo FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @TEX
FD - 13.08 DK - 10.23
Nomar Mazara FD 3600 DK 4800
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.28 DK - 9.52

When the Royals are facing an average to bad righty, I am all for these 2 guys. Both Mazara and Choo have hit righties extremely well and get an insane ballpark with Globe Life in the summer. As we've said about Anibal Sanchez, he is utterly atrocious. He's held a .364 wOBA against lefties and gives up a home run about 5 times each inning. In reality, it's about 2-3 a game. Both Choo and Mazara posted a .365+ wOBA in 2016 and have maintained elite numbers into this season. There is nothing to dislike about either of these options and I think they should be very popular. With that being said, they are priced in the middle of the pack and there are a whole lot of options in the OF. Don't be surprised if either of these guys fall between the cracks and ends up sub-15% owned in cash games. Personally, I'll be close to 100%. The Rangers are going to demolish Anibal Sanchez and I don't see the prices being high enough to deter me.

Kyle Schwarber FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.62 DK - 8.09
Ben Zobrist FD 2800 DK 3000
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.85 DK - 8.32

When Homer Bailey travels into Wrigley Field, we pay attention. As one of the bottom 10 pitchers in baseball, you can really target anyone. Both Zobrist and Schwarber will be in the top of the lineup and play great roles in different formats. Schwarber is a bit more boom or bust and has 2 HR upside if righties come out of the bullpen. His price is fair and I don't think he'll get over 20% owned. Zobrist is a cash game king that holds a premium as a switch-hitter that smashes both sides. Zobrist has an even lower price than Schwarber and he will be a mainstay in all of my cash games. The Cubs as a whole are a top stack and I will make sure I get plenty of exposure. Pay attention to the weather and winds, as it plays a huge role in Wrigley.

Carlos Gonzalez FD 3700 DK 4100
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @COL
FD - 12.1 DK - 9.27
Charlie Blackmon FD 5000 DK 5700
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @COL
FD - 14.21 DK - 11.75

This Rockies team is the best offense on the slate and I'm not sure you can argue that. They face off with Mike Foltynewicz, who is one of the worst arms around. When you have Foltynewicz on the mound, you know what coming is out of his hand. Against lefties, Folty has been bad for eternity. They held a .381 against them in previous years and will look to bounce back. Both CarGo and Blackmon are elite plays and superstars in this match-up with Folty. Folty is one of those pitchers you like to target as it seems like he will never actually put things together against lefties. All in all, there are a ton of different ways to go on this slate and I'm not sure how many can be considered wrong. Do what your gut says.

Early - Rhys Hopkins, Giancarlo Stanton, Adam Jones, Adam Lind, Melky Cabrera

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image sources

Edwin Encarnacion: (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

6 Visitor Comments

Mike R 08/16/2017

AGAIN for the second day in a row the prices are listed WRONG. FD for example. Darvish price is INCORRECT! Cmon DFSR crew proofread!

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Big Al 08/16/2017

Your FD prices are off again guys. Tizzo, Odor, Kipnis are a few i noticed. Tighten up fellas.

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Steve 08/16/2017

Nice call again on Rhys Hoskins fellas. I’ll keep raking even if the prices aren’t right. Love the value picks keep em coming.

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Johnny 08/16/2017

AGAIN, for the second day in a row, you’re bitching on prices.

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Austyn Varney 08/16/2017

Prices are not manually entered. They are part of system and sometimes get mixed up on the backend. Same reason there will be an occasional wrong face to name as well. Sorry about any confusion, hope you were able to find the guy you were looking for. Can be tough. Good luck tonight!

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Steve 08/16/2017

I can’t see why the prices in this write up even matter? You see them on the site your playing! I’ve been reading these write ups for 3 years and never even cared to look at the prices on here because they’re right in front of me on the fantasy site I’m playing on. Thanks for the free write ups guys! I look forward to them everyday!

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