Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/12/17
Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here.
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Pitchers
Jacob deGrom FD 9700 DK 10200
Opponent - CHC (Lackey) Park - @NYM
FD - 34.96 DK - 23.15
This is a weird pitching slate. Other than Strasburg, there are warts on every other option -- either in the form of a tough matchup or their own spotty track record. deGrom actually comes with a little bit of both ... or maybe neither. Like I said, this is a weird one. On pure talent, deGrom is one of the best guys going tonight. In 72 IP this season, he's fanning nearly 12 per 9 with a 14.7% swinging strike rate -- both of which surpass even his peak numbers of 2015. But he's also been inconsistent, giving up too many walks and homers, and he's coming off back-to-back terrible starts. Meanwhile, the Cubs are supposed to be baseball's most fearsome lineup, but so far in 2017, they've been below average -- especially against RHP. In the split, they rank 24th in both wRC+ (87) and wOBA (.307). So, depending on how you want to frame the argument, you've got a pitcher with extreme upside against a bad offense OR a struggling starter against one of the most loaded lineups in baseball. The truth, no surprise, probably lies somewhere between the two poles, but we think the probability that deGrom finds his form and the Cubs don't is high enough that we're going to want some level of exposure in GPPs.
Rick Porcello FD 8800 DK 8600
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @BOS
FD - 32.04 DK - 21.28
Again. All the warts. No doubt, Porcello is getting shelled this season. A 42% hard contact rate makes me think that .360 BABIP is giving up has been earned. But actually, Statcast disagrees. His xwOBA is .335, which isn't great, but better than might be expected, and his xBA (expected batting average) is just .266, well below his actual .305 BA allowed. So maybe there's some positive regression coming, as his FIP and xFIP would also suggest. Now keep in mind, even if the regression comes, he's a long way off from last year's results, but against the Phillies, we don't need dominance -- just competence. They rank 25th in both wRC+ and wOBA (just behind the Cubs!) vs. RHP with a 23.4 K%. Also, it's worth noting that while the rest of his numbers are moving in the wrong direction, Porcello's K's are actually up significantly at 8.7 per 9 IP, supported by a 10.9% swinging strike rate. So while we can't advocate this kind of profile in cash games, there's a chance to catch some upside at a low ownership, which puts Porcello in play for tourneys tonight.
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