Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/5/17

Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here.

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Pitchers

Jeff Samardzija FD 8900 DK 8900
Opponent - MIL (Guerra) Park - @MIL
FD - 34.02 DK - 22.64

There's always risk when you take a pitcher against the Brewers, and it's amplified when they're in the homer-happy confines of Miller Park. Milwaukee ranks fifth in MLB with a .189 team ISO this season and it's .198 at home, so the long-ball concerns give us pause. But this slate doesn't offer much as far as sure-fire starting pitchers, and Samardzija has some upside here that makes him worth a roll of the dice, because while the Brewers can definitely launch a couple, there's also plenty of swing-and-miss in this lineup. They rank third in baseball with a 24.9 K% vs. RHP, and Shark is inducing a career high 10.5 Ks/9 in 2017. His swinging strike rate (11.1%) may not totally back that up, but it's also tied for a career-best, so there's something to believe there. Samardzija's difficulty in preventing runs in 2017 springs from a .340 BABIP that looks like it's due for some hefty regression. His hard-hit rate (28.8%) is more or less in line with his career rates, while his soft contact is up (22%), so something closer to his career .296 BABIP should probably be expected and would help his 4.63 ERA fall more in line with his 2.84 xFIP. Unfortunately, on a pitching-starved slate, he'll probably be pretty highly owned, and that tempers our enthusiasm for this pick, but we'd still rather play it than fade it.

Dan Straily FD 8500 DK 9100
Opponent - CHC (Butler) Park - @CHC
FD - 30.05 DK - 19.97

With similar prices, we'd expect Straily to come in with lower ownership levels, and even though he's got a tough matchup, he's actually not in a bad spot here. For one thing, the Cubs have greatly under-performed relative to their talent in 2017, with bottom-tier numbers vs. RHP (25th in wRC+ and wOBA). For another thing, the wind is expected to be blowing in at 15 mph tonight in Wrigley, which should help turn all those fly balls Straily gives up into harmless outs. Straily's also been pretty solid this year. He's still walking more guys than we like, but he's fanning better than a batter per inning and he's got a career best 3.56 ERA and 3.82 FIP through 11 starts. The xFIP is still up there at 4.50, due largely to some expected regression in HRs allowed. That's a concern facing a Cubs team with some latent firepower still lurking, but the conditions look like they'll be favorable for a fly-ball pitcher in Wrigley tonight.

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