Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/4/17

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Pitcher

Chris Sale FD 11400 DK 12800
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BAL
FD - 44.66 DK - 29.48

Welcome to Sunday baseball! We have a very interesting slate on our hands with plenty of pitching and more than a few offenses with implied totals over 5. Per usual, FanDuel and DraftKings have very different pricing structures. FanDuel is a lot more lenient and will let you pay up for a few bats, as well as an elite pitcher. On DraftKings, you have to be a bit more conservative. If you do elect to go Sale, you will have to pay down at most of your other spots. Either way, you have to consider Chris Sale. Sale has been great this year, even by his own standards. He is holding both lefties and righties to a sub .265 wOBA while striking out nearly 13 batters per 9 innings. This is his best start to any season and while we may see righties improve a little, his strikeout numbers look to be legitimate. Even when he struggled against the White Sox, he struck out 9 batters and kept you alive in cash games. His upside is higher than any pitcher in the league and the Red Sox have been letting him go well over 100 pitches. The Baltimore Orioles lineup is a very interesting one against a pitcher like Sale. They Strikeout a lot and rely on the power stroke for runs. I think Sale will likely give up a couple runs, but strikeout more than enough guys to make up for it. Camden Yards is a tough place to pitch, so don't be surprised if a guy like Trumbo or Machado connects once and sends one over. All in all, Sale is the top option on the board in all formats. He has the highest upside and floor at a price than can be managed on both sites.

Justin Verlander FD 9800 DK 9600
Opponent - CHW (Holmberg) Park - @DET
FD - 37.05 DK - 24.44

Verlander seems to always be in the mix. He has remained consistent and kept healthy for what seems like over 2 years at this point. Once a guy expected to fall off the earth like Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, Verlander has found a way to age with grace. With a fastball 3 MPH slower than when he started, Verlander has held a .325 wOBA against lefties and a .309 against righties. He's striking out a batter per inning and should only increase that rate with sample size. Today, he faces off with the Chicago White Sox, at home in Comerica Park. Comerica Park is a very pitcher friendly park, ranking 24th in terms of power in 2016. The White Sox are undoubtedly one of the worst offenses in baseball and it's been proven time and time again. Against righties, even Abreu and Frazier have a really tough time. You then work in the K-heavy bats like Avisail Garcia and Tim Anderson, who strike out almost 27% of the time. The off-brand power hitters won't be able to get lucky in this park like they do in U.S. Cellular. The White Sox have the 2nd lowest implied team total on the slate and will likely be held in check for a 2nd straight game. Verlander is a very safe cash game option and a guy you can certainly target in tournaments.

Catcher

Evan Gattis FD 3200 DK 4600
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.51 DK - 8.75

The Astros are one of few teams with an implied team total over 5, so we're going to be targeting them quite a lot. They're also one of the more explosive offenses in baseball, and against a lefty, we have some guys in phenomenal spots. Evan Gattis leads us off as a guy who has as much power as anyone on the slate. While he doesn't bring it out nearly as much as he should, he does against lefties. He hit an HR in 1 of every 15 AB's against lefties in 2016, which was a top 30 mark in MLB. While Minute Maid Park is a positive park for batters, Globe Life Park is even better. This entire Astros team is in play here and we will get to a few more of then down the road. Martin Perez is a lefty without much to offer in a ballpark with plenty to offer. Gattis is in play in all formats, though DK has priced him up like crazy as they expect the 'Stros to dominate. If you need to pay down a bit (DK), let's take a look at Yasmani Grandal.

Yasmani Grandal FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.53 DK - 7.91

The Dodgers have emerged as one of the top offenses in this league and it remains true for this slate. They face off with Zach Davies on the road in hitter-friendly Miller Park. Davies has been absolutely HORRIBLE this season, allowing a .380 combined wOBA and a 33% hard contact rate. He has shown no signs of promise and a .288 BABIP against lefties is extremely worrisome. Yasmani Grandal is a switch-hitter, but isn't very good on the right side. He prefers facing righties and has held a .381 wOBA against them in 2017. Miller Park is a top 10 park for power and the Dodgers are currently implied to score 5.13 runs. Grandal is fairly priced on both sites and on DraftKings, he should be popular. Gattis is way too expensive and Grandal makes for an affordable pivot with a similar expectation. Don't ignore theDodgerss offense in Miller Park against a bad righty.

Consider - Cameron Rupp, Derek Norris

First Base

Miguel Cabrera FD 4200 DK 4500
Opponent - CHW (Holmberg) Park - @DET
FD - 14.6 DK - 11.05
Victor Martinez FD 3300 DK 3900
Opponent - CHW (Holmberg) Park - @DET
FD - 12.08 DK - 9.26

It's not too tough to figure out Dylan Holmberg. He's atrocious against righties and good against lefties. Since his first major league appearance in 2013, Holmberg has pitched 56 innings against righties. He's allowed a .389 wOBA and 15 homers in that time. He takes on a team with a few extremely good righties, with 2 of them coming at the same position. FanDue finally moved V-Mart from C to 1B, which has forced us from plugging him in on a near daily basis. Now at first, he's always a bit sneaky with Miggy being highly owned. This match-up is tremendous here, as both Miggy and V-Mart are elite hitters against lefties. Miggy has sported a +.400 wOBA for years now and has been just as good in Comerica Park. While V-Mart has more power from the left side, he hits for more contact from the right side and has been hitting better there in 2017. Both of these guys are in play in both formats and should be heavily owned. Miggy is always going to be a better option, but the price and ownership reflect that. Martinez has the upside to hit an HR and this is as good of a match-up as any.

Carlos Santana FD 3700 DK 3900
Opponent - KC (Skoglund) Park - @KC
FD - 12.23 DK - 9.3

Some may look at the game Eric Skoglund had last time out and assume he is good. Let's take a look at his spray chart. He had 5 fly balls caught on the warning track, 2 line drives caught by the 3rd baseman and another LD caught at 2nd. He could have had an atrocious game and a completely different vibe coming into this one. Instead, we may be able to get some of these Indians at much lower ownership. Fangraphs did a piece on Skoglund, so go check it out if you're looking for more in-depth analysis on him. All in all, he has 0 plus pitches and has a slider without any drop. His fastball generates fastballs and isn't good enough to put anyone away. Carlos Santana, a switch-hitter, has been better against lefties over the past few years (.374 wOBA). He hit 30 HR's last year and has a ton of potential at a very affordable price tag. You can play Encarnacion as well, but Skoglund is expected to be worse against lefties without an effective slider. The guys in Detroit will certainly be popular, and rightfully so. I just think Santana has just as good of a spot to go off and will be about half as owned as Cabrera. Take a shot in tournaments.

Consider - Joey Votto, Lucas Duda

Second Base

Jose Altuve FD 4000 DK 5400
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.59 DK - 10.67

Jose Altuve hasn't missed a beat. This is a guy a few people have criticized for the past 2 years, saying he was over-performing and will end up falling and crashing. It has happened and it won't. As most have known for a while, Altuve could very well be the best 2nd baseman in the game. He is exceptionally well against lefties and sees one tonight, while being in one of the top hitting environments during the summer (Globe Life Park in Arlington). Altuve has held a .380+ wOBA against lefties for 3 years now and so far this year, it's sitting at .397. He faces a pitcher who has a long history in struggling vs righties, Martin Perez. While operating on some luck so far this season, Perez has held a wOBA between .330-.355 against righties in each of the last 4 seasons. While not the worst, he also has a big problem with the longball, giving up nearly 2 HR/9. Altuve can steal bags and hit HR's against lefties and will be right in the heart of an order that is sure to produce some runs.

Rougned Odor FD 3100 DK 3100
Opponent - HOU (Peacock) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.42 DK - 8.4

Rougned Odor is a pretty weird player if we're being honest. He's a true power hitter in a 2nd baseman/ He is trash against lefties and will often go 0-for-4. He will also hit a whole lot of homers and have a few nights where he does it twice. He has as much upside as anyone at the position and isn't priced like it on either site. Brad Peacock hasn't seen any real experience since 2014, when he allowed a .349 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Globe Life Park is extremely friendly for lefties and Odor has hit most of his HR's there. While nowhere near a cash game viable option on FD, Odor is as good as it gets in tournaments. If you are looking for a punt on DK, I guess you can go with Odor in cash. I will personally make sure I'm able to pay up at the position for Altuve, but at just $3100, it makes more than enough sense.

Consider - Jason Kipnis, Dee Gordon

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Shortstop

Corey Seager FD 3200 DK 4100
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.41 DK - 8.85

When people are looking at the season Seager is having and using it to bash him, you know how great he is. He's held a .365 wOBA against both sides of the plate and remains one of the top 3 shortstops in all of baseball. Oh ya, he's also just 23 years old. He sported a .401 wOBA against righties in 2016 and a .289 BABIP this year suggests it may be heading that direction. We touched on Davies and there isn't much else to say. He was a decent pitcher a couple years ago and it looked like he would get it together, but I guess not. He has been atrocious against both sides of the plate and I think the Dodgers go under-owned on this slate. Miller Park is a big plus for the entire team and in tournaments, they are one of my favorite stacks. There is plenty of power in that lineup against righties. Take advantage in both cash games and tournaments.

Francisco Lindor FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - KC (Skoglund) Park - @KC
FD - 11.05 DK - 8.92

Francisco Lindor was slightly better against righties in 2016, but has flipped the script so far this season. He's held a .396 wOBA so far against lefties and as a switch-hitter, he always has the platoon advantage. Skoglund was fine against the Tigers, but it was a fluke. Like I said, there were 5 flyballs to the warning track and another 3 liners right into gloves. The Indians offense is extremely consistent and you can usually depend on 3 or 4 runs on a daily basis. Lindor is usually righty in the mix and can score in so many different ways, from hitting HR's to stealing bases. Lindor is more expensive than Seager on both FD and DK, which will keep his ownership down. In cash games, I will stick with Seager and Correa. In tournaments, however, Lindor will see his fair use. When paying down at pitching on a site like FD, you can fit a whole bunch of high-upside combos.

Consider - Carlos Correa

 

Third Base

Maikel Franco FD 2800 DK 2800
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.09 DK - 7.72

Matt Moore and the Giants face off with the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park tonight and he will likely struggle a little bit. Moore has struggled quite a bit this year and currently holds the highest barrel rate (12.6%) in the league by a longshot. Guys are squaring Moore up and he has relied on AT&T Park for a few of his starts. He won't be able to do that tonight, as Citizens Bank is one of the friendly parks in the league. Maikel Franco is much better against lefties and sported a .356 wOBA in 2016 to back up his 36% hard contact rate. Franco is simply way too cheap on both sites and makes a lot of sense in all formats. If you're paying up for Sale and need to save somewhere, Franco is my favorite spot. He gives you a good shot at an HR at just $2800. While I'm not a big fan of the Phillies offense as a whole, a 1-off or 2 may be worth it. Moore can give up homers and the Phillies have plenty of pop against southpaws.

Manny Machado FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - BOS (Sale) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.49 DK - 8.1

I know, it sounds crazy. Manny Machado is certainly not the 2nd best cash game option at third. Probably not even the 7th best. There is a chance he is dominated by Chris Sale in all 3 at-bats. There is also a chance he connects with a 98 MPH fastball and sends it over the short wall in left field that is all of Camden Yards.  The Orioles are still expected to score over 3 runs and there is nobody in the lineup who has a better chance. Machado has dominated lefties for a few years now (.364 wOBA) and has been an elite hitter in Camden Yards over the last 2 seasons. Sale does have a slight issue with the HR ball, due to his high velocity and strike-heavy approach.  Again, Machado is a guy you only want in tournaments. He's going to be incredibly low owned and has the upside tan hit a HR against any pitcher, especially a lefty.

Consider - Jake Lamb, Nick Castellanos

Outfield

Michael Conforto FD 3900 DK 5000
Opponent - PIT (Williams) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.62 DK - 8.94
Curtis Granderson FD 2700 DK 3300
Opponent - PIT (Williams) Park - @NYM
FD - 9.72 DK - 7.47

While we haven't touched on the Mets yet, they are one of the more intriguing offenses. Trevor Williams is exactly who we thought he was. A slightly below average righty with low upside and low downside. He's struggled mightily in about half of his starts, going less than 2 innings. The Mets have been hitting a bit better lately and these 2 guys are a big reason why. Michael Conforto currently holds a .425 woBA against righties and has emerged as one of the better OF bats in the NL. Granderson was struggling to start the year, but I keep saying he would come around. His peripherals are still the same, but he;s finding spots to put the ball and guys have bee on-base more as of late. Trevor Williams has been around .340-.360 in terms of wOBA over his career and will likely last around 5 innings in this one. Granderson is a lot more affordable, but Conforto is one of the top options on the board without price considered. He's a bit too cheap on FanDuel.

Justin Upton FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - CHW (Holmberg) Park - @DET
FD - 12 DK - 9.36
J.D. Martinez FD 4100 DK 5200
Opponent - CHW (Holmberg) Park - @DET
FD - 12.25 DK - 9.36

We touched on V-Mart and Miguel Cabrera earlier and now we touch on another Detroit Tigers duo. Dylan Holmberg, who's facing the Tigers, is not a good pitcher. He's had some early success this season and the White Sox have decided to give him a shot. It's his 4th in as many years and likely won't be the last. He's been atrocious (.389 wOBA) against righties for his entire career and has shown no signs of getting any better. Both Upton and Martinez dominate lefties, so you can go with either of them. Martinez is one of the best hitting outfielders in baseball and if he can stay healthy, people will soon see that. Upton on the other hand, is historically A LOT better against lefties than righties. He held a .400 wOBA against lefties for a few years and while he fell off last season, he looks to be swinging the bat a lot better over the last couple months. Both of these guys make great plays in all formats, with J.D. Martinez being one of the best plays on the slate without price considered.

George Springer FD 4200 DK 5700
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 13.52 DK - 10.59
Carlos Beltran FD 3500 DK 4800
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.71 DK - 8.22

Springer and Beltran have been a pretty fun combo to roster, as have the Astros in general. They've all been swinging the bat well and come into a match-up with Martin Perez in Texas. They are one of the top offenses on the slate and while they do have the floor of being shut down, there is a much higher chance of them getting rid of Perez in under 3 innings. The team matches up perfectly and a guy like Springer will strive in this match-up. He held a .401 wOBA against lefties over the last 2 seasons and lead the league in leadoff HR's in each of the 2 seasons. He's a bit more diverse in scoring than Beltran, who is a bit power reliant. With that being said, Beltran can hit very well from both sides of the plate. He prefers the right side and faces a pitcher who has extreme HR issues. Martin Perez is a subpar pitcher and should have a ton of trouble with one of the league's top offenses. With all of that being said, DraftKings has this entire offense priced up. If you feel the need to go elsewhere, it's understandable. Just remember they may see lower ownership because of it. Good luck today!

Consider - David Peralta, Christian Yelich, Carlos Gonzalez, Cody Bellinger

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