Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/14/17

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Pitcher

Jeff Samardzija FD 8600 DK 9200
Opponent - CIN (Adleman) Park - @SF
FD - 33.65 DK - 22.19

This slate isn't too great from a pitcher perspective. We don't really have anyone at the top that stands out above the rest, nor any value options that are in a positive spot. We do have a few guys that are in good spots, though the risk is very evident in each spot. Jeff "Shark" Samardzija will start us out here at home against the Reds. While the Reds are an offense we typically don't target much, they do see a huge downgrade with AT&T Park and it's pitiful hitting environment. The Reds are an offense used to hitting in Great American Ballpark, where routine fly balls often end up in the seats. We also avoid the Reds due to Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza. While they are still very present, Shark is good at holding runners and should do a pretty good job of keeping those guys off base. Samardzija is a pitcher who doesn't leave too much up to the imagination. He's slightly below average against lefties (.330 wOBA) and dominant against righties (.246 wOBA). He strikes out around 7 per 9 innings and doesn't have many problems with control. While he's not a guy you look to go out and have a 8 inning, 8 strikeout performance, he's also not one you're usually worried about getting knocked out in the first 3 innings. He's a very consistent arm in AT&T Park and this week Reds offense should be a rather easy match-up. Samardzija is my top option in cash games and tournaments on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Jacob deGrom FD 10700 DK 11000
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 36.4 DK - 24.08

If you feel the need to pay up, Jacob DeGrom is a fantastic option. He's been consistent all season long and has flashed the 55 FP+ twice already. While this Brewers lineup is one with a lot of noise around it, they are a lot worse than the average fan thinks. Eric Thames and Ryan Braun are great, but they do strike out a ton and both are inevitably due for regression. Outside of those 2, Villar and Shaw are the other guys who could cause some problems. If he's able to work around the top 4, this lineup is horrible. Keon Broxton, Jett Bandy, Domingo Santana, Orlando Arica, and Wily Peralta fill out the bottom of the order. Yes, you read that right. 5 horrible righties against Jacob DeGrom. Let's not forget, DeGrom is a guy who has held a career. 280 wOBA against righties and strikes them out at a 9.5 per 9 clip. He's one of the safest pitchers in baseball and on a slate without many solid options, there is no problem paying up for safety. Personally, I plan on forcing Samardzija and DeGrom into my cash game lineup on DK. DeGrom has a lot more upside as well, which still matters in cash games. All in all, both of these guys are solid options at their respective price points.

Catcher

Victor Martinez FD 3100 DK 3400
Opponent - LAA (Meyer) Park - @LAA
FD - 10.33 DK - 7.91

On FanDuel, you can always just go ahead and target Victor Martinez at the catcher spot. He's almost a great play every night at the position and especially tonight against Alex Meyer. Meyer has sported a career .427 wOBA against lefties and really hasn't shown much in terms of promise. V-Mart is fairly priced on both sites and on FanDuel, I love him in cash games. This entire Tigers lineup has been quite cold and I do fully expect them to pick it up as the seasons progresses. Martinez, a switch-hitter, prefers hitting from the left sid here he has more power and strikes out less. While I don't think I like Martinez enough to target him at 1B on DK, he is definitely an elite option where catcher eligible.

Gary Sanchez FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - HOU (Fiers) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.82 DK - 9.15

I guess a lot of people are or were concerned that Gary Sanchez was a complete fluke in 2016. While I think it was rather obvious that he was just struggling at the plate, let's hope there are some people who still believe he's a terrible hitter. This guy is easily one of the best bats at the position and could end up being the undoubted best. He's been great against both sides of the plate and sees a righty in Mike Fiers tonight. Fiers, a fastball pitcher, relies on velocity and trickery to be effective. In 2016, Fiers was actually much worse against righties, holding a .358 wOBA in over 90 innings. While Sanchez will cost you a pretty penny, he definitely holds a premium at catcher on most slates. All in all, you can't go wrong with Gary Sanchez here if you can afford him.  He's the top option in all formats with price not considered.

First Base

Jose Abreu FD 3600 DK 4500
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.65 DK - 9.67

Well, look who's back on the mound. Weaver has allowed 17 runs in his last 3 games and I'm not too sure the Padres can keep pitching him. Either way, he's in line for at least 1 more start. Everyone in this White Sox lineup is fully in play and it all starts with Jose Abreu. Abreu, the team-leader, has swung the bat well over the last month and seems to be putting the barrel on the ball a whole lot. Abreu has been just as good against righties as he has been against lefties and we all know Jered Weaver doesn't discriminate. He will lay the same 82 MPH fastball into a righty that he will to a lefty. Abreu is too cheap on FanDuel and a guy I will end up locking into cash games. In tournaments, there is definitely merit to going elsewhere at 1B. It's obviously one of the stronger positions on the slate and Abreu could easily end up highly-owned.

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3500 DK 4300
Opponent - MIN (Santiago) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.38 DK - 8.52

Hector Santiago is a weird pitcher. While he's actually a pretty good one, he gives up a TON of home runs. Over the last 2 years alone, he gave up 52 to righties. Yes, 52 home runs! He either strikes you out, walks you or gives uo a homer. Because of this, Santiago isn't a guy you want to stack against most often. I like to pick 1 or 2 righty power bats and hope they can capitalize on his main weakness. Encarnacion is surely one of the premier power bats in baseball and should be able to do a lot of damage here. Encarnacion has always hit lefties well and Santiago doesn't bring anything peculiar to the table. While Jose Abreu is definitely on his own tier today in cash games, Encarnacion is an elite tournament option. He has everything you can ask for in a 1B that will be 5-10% owned.

Second Base

DJ LeMahieu FD 3300 DK 4800
Opponent - LAD (Urias) Park - @COL
FD - 10.72 DK - 8.82

Second base isn't that great here. Sure, we have some expensive guys we can pay up for. However, they aren't in great spots and I would rather save a few hundred dollars. D.J. LeMahieu and the Rockies are still hosting the Dodgers in what seems to be the series that never ends. Julio Urias takes the hill and I don't see him having much success. While he is a promising young rookie that will eventually be an ace, he's 20 years old and pitching in Coors Field. His off-speed pitches won't move the same, which can be very frustrating for a youngster. LeMahieu is great against lefties (.361 wOBA) and also bring the HR potential at home. While I doubt I look toward LeMahieu at $4.8k on DK, I will get enough exposure on FD where he is somehow just $3.3k.

Neil Walker FD 3500 DK 3900
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.02 DK - 7.73

The Mets are one of my favorite sneaky stacks of the day. While Wily Peralta hasn't been atrocious this season, he does have the ability to get lit up on any given start. Peralta has sported a .374 wOBA in 2016 against lefties and didn't show much in the way of improvement. While we're not ones to look at hot and cold streaks, we all know Neil Walker is a little streaky. He has a homer in two straight and li Justin Upton, I do put a little bit of credence into the hot bat. Miller Park is friendly for lefties and won't hurt anything hit to the outfield. LeMahieu may be a bit safer, but Walker has just as much upside, is similarly priced, and will be 5x lesser owned. Walker, a switch-hitter, is only good from the left side, where he possesses all of his power. Due to second base being so ugly, I don't mind Walker in cash and tournaments.

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Shortstop

Jordy Mercer FD 2200 DK 2900
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 7.94 DK - 6.23

Robbie Ray is actually a pretty good pitcher. He strikes out a lot of bats and has done a great job of minimalizing runs when on the mound. With that being said, he is still a bit off against righties. With numbers that match last season, Ray has allowed a .342 wOBA t righties and has already allowed 5 homers in just 30 innings. Jordy Mercer is a lefty specialist and should come in here hitting 1 or 2nd in the order. In Chase Field, you have to love the spot. This Pirates team is used to playing in PNC Park, which is arguably the worst park in the league for righty power. Mercer has sported a .361 wOBA over the last 4 years against lefties and has displayed a ton of power as well. While it may be difficult to get away from Seager in Coors Field, the price might help you out. Mercer is close to the minimum on both sites and is a guy I am willing to play everywhere.

Corey Seager FD 4300 DK 5700
Opponent - COL (Senzatela) Park - @COL
FD - 13 DK - 10.11

Antonio Senzatela isn't a pitcher you want to target too often. He looks to be the real deal and has done a pretty good job of neutralizing strong offenses to this point. With that being said, he's a rookie in Coors Field taking on the Dodgers, who are one of the best teams in baseball vs righties. Corey Seager leads the crew wit his .400 wOBA and near-elite power. He's hit well at Coors Field and I don't see a reason for that to stop tonight. Senzatela has been slightly worse against lefties (.313 wOBA) and the BABIP is a bit too low. I think the Odgers have a little bit of success here and Seager should be right in the middle of it all. As a team stack, I don't think the Dodgers will be heavily owned. They are later in the day and on a night with so many offenses, I love targeting an under-owned Coors Field stack. Let alone against a rookie who can implode at any time. Seager is a strong option in all formats, though I'm not sure I can pay up from Mercer in most places.

Third Base

Jake Lamb FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - PIT (Nova) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.57 DK - 8.17

Jake Lamb at home against a righty. It's pretty easy when it comes to him. Lamb seems to either be a great play or unplayable on most night. Tonight, he is one of the top options on the slate outside of U.S.Cellular. Ivan Nova, who still hasn't walked anyone, is not very good against lefties. While he's made a slight improvement this season, he allowed a .362 wOBA last year with average peripherals. While I do think the Pirates have improved Nova, he's definitely not a + pitcher against lefties. Lamb sported .400 wOBA against righties in Chase Field dating back to 2015. He hits the ball hard nearly 45% of the time and will find himself in a few BRI opportunities as well will Goldy and Peralta in front of him. Lamb makes for a terrific cash game play and an even better tourney option. I don't think he will be too highly owned and his price is pretty fair around the industry.

Todd Frazier FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.71 DK - 9.19

Jered Weaver. Everyone is in play. Weaver is probably the worst pitcher in baseball that finds himself in a regular rotation spot. While I'm not sure the Padres even have a choice to keep him there much longer, however. Weaver has allowed everyone from both sides of the plate to hit the ball and hit it hard. Frazier, who hasn't had a great year, will look to make a statement here at home against Weaver.  Dating back to the start of 2016, Frazier has sported a .336 wOBA against right-handers. He also belted 30 homers against them last year and has as much potential as anyone on the slate. Frazier is still a marquee power bat and at home in U.S. Cellular, I love the spot. Personally, Frazier will find his way into a ton of my lineups. As long as Jered Weaver still has a spot, we have a reliable offense to target every 5 days.

Outfield

Melky Cabrera FD 3100 DK 3700
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.24 DK - 8.8
Avisail Garcia FD 3400 DK 3600
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.19 DK - 8.1

It is what it is. All of these White Sox are in play and I really don't think you can go wrong in too many spots. We've touched on Jered Weaver plenty and I think you all understand just how pitiful he is. Looking at these 2 OF's, they are very different hitters. Melky comes to the plate looking to drive the ball in the gap and get in scoring position. Garcia on the other hand, is always swinging for the fences. As a righty against Jered Weaver, I love it. One thing these guys do have in common is the .340+ wOBA against opposing righties. As for Melky, I do think he is a better play if you're stacking the White Sox. He surely can hit 2 solo shots, though I see a higher likelihood of him having a big game if the entire team goes off. Either way, both are fairly priced and shouldn't see to incredibly high of ownership. if I had to choose 1, I would go with Garcia in tournaments and Cabrera in cash.

Kyle Schwarber FD 3200 DK 3800
Opponent - STL (Wainwright) Park - @STL
FD - 11.42 DK - 8.75

Adam Wainwright is an average pitcher right now. He's not the ace he was 3 years ago, nor the atrocity he was at the start of this season. He's a decent righty who struggles against lefties and is susceptible to the home run. Waino allowed a .361 wOBA to lefties in 2016 and hasn't been any better so far this year. Schwarber on the other hand, holds a career .365 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Schwarber should find himself in that lead-off spot again and be a near-lock for 5 at-bats. While I don't necessarily love this Cubs team against Wanio + Cards pen, I think it's probably smart to pick out Schwarber or Rizzo. These lefties have a really goo match-up here and it would be no surprise to see Schwarber go yard a time or two.

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