Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/8/17

Welcome back for another Monday night in daily fantasy baseball. We have a smaller 10 game slate but it won't be short of decisions as we get an elite series matchup with the Cubs traveling to Coors Field to take on the Rockies. To pay up for the bats or not? It shouldn't too hard to fit them in tonight as there is only one pitching option over $10K tonight. Let's jump right in and take a look at some of the top plays at each position.

 

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Pitchers

Jacob deGrom FD 10700 DK 10800
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @NYM
FD - 35.85 DK - 23.5

That one pitcher over $10K is Jacob deGrom and he headlines the pitching options on Monday. He picked up the win in his last start but it was, by far, his worst outing of the season as he walked five Braves and gave up five earned runs in just five innings pitched. After getting that out of the way, he should get back on track tonight at home vs. the Giants who have scored the second least amount of total runs(105) this season behind the Royals. They also sit 29th in wOBA(.277) vs. right-handed pitching and strike out just over 20% of the time. This is definitely not the Giants team of old. Great news for deGrom who leads all pitchers tonight with an elite 12.0 K/9 rate and sits third among all qualified pitchers this season with a 15.7% swinging strike rate. All signs point to deGrom being the highest scoring pitcher of the night and safe in all formats.

Carlos Martinez FD 9500 DK 9800
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @MIA
FD - 32.47 DK - 21.4

Martinez and deGrom are currently neck and neck in PTS/$ value on the projections but I lean deGrom slightly as he gets the home matchup. Not that Martinez doesn't get a great matchup as Marlins Park has always ranked in the Top 10 when looking at pitcher-friendly parks. The Cardinals open as -125 favorites vs. the struggling Marlins who have lost seven of their last 10 and have been a slightly better team vs. left-handed pitching this season. Martinez is coming off his first win of the season despite recording his second-lowest K total(4) of the season. Don't worry too much about low K total as he comes into tonight with an elite 10.75 K/9 rate for the season and the best news of all is he is finding his control. After walking an absurd eight batters vs. the Yankees in mid-April, he has walked just six batters in his last 18.1 innings pitched(3 starts). Martinez makes an excellent GPP pivot on FanDuel and if you are playing a bit contrarian on DraftKings you can use deGrom and Martinez together tonight.

Blake Snell FD 6900 DK 7400
Opponent - KC (Karns) Park - @TB
FD - 31.28 DK - 20.59

After the top two starters, the pitching landscape gets a bit murky with a mix of low upside options and pitchers in average to bad matchups. This has me dipping right down into the value for Blake Snell who the projections absolutely love from a PTS/$ perspective. Don't mistake that love for safety, however, as it has been a bit of a rough start for the 24-year-old in his second major league season. He is striking out just under eight batters per nine and sits with a decent 3.45 ERA but the xFIP is through the roof at 5.17 mostly due to his awful 6.03 BB/9 rate. The good news is the regression may be on hold Monday night as he gets a tremendous matchup vs. the lowest scoring team in the league, the Kansas City Royals. While they have been bad vs. both handedness, they have been even worse vs. left-handed pitching ranking dead last in wOBA(.232) and wRC+(40) with a 23% strikeout rate. He makes a nice SP2 for GPP's on DraftKings and will be even lower owned on FanDuel where you only roster one pitcher. Take advantage.

Catcher

Jonathan Lucroy FD 2900 DK 3500
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @SD
FD - 8.77 DK - 6.8

Lucroy has been a forgotten man in daily fantasy this season due to many factors, the first of which being his struggles at the plate as he sits with a low .211 average. This forced the hand of the manager as he moved Lucroy right to the bottom of the order, making him virtually unplayable in DFS. Good news! He is slowly making his way up the lineup and better yet, he has seen his salary drop right off the table, especially on FanDuel where he comes in under $3K tonight. This explains some of the high PTS/$ value on projections and rest has to do with the matchup vs. gas can Jered Weaver. He has struck out under 4.5 batters per nine and is giving up an incredible 28.6% HR/FB rate. I normally only consider Lucroy vs. left-handed pitching but in this top-notch matchup with a low price, I am on board in all formats.

Gary Sanchez FD 3200 DK 4800
Opponent - CIN (Davis) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.34 DK - 9.56

He's back! After almost a month on the shelf with a biceps injury, the Yankees young, power-hitting catcher was activated from the disabled list on Friday. He showed some rust out of the gate going hitless in his return but promptly made up for it on Saturday with two hits in four at-bats with a RBI and two runs scored. He was then given the day off yesterday which should have him fresh for a Monday start vs. one of the worst pitchers on the slate. Despite a 1-1 record, Rookie Davis as failed to record an out past the fifth inning and has only struck out 11 batters while walking 10 in his four starts as a rookie. He relies heavily on his fastball(64%) but is only producing a 6.2% swing strike rate with the pitch while his second-best pitch(slider) has been getting crushed to the tune of a .444 average, .648 wOBA and 307 wRC+ on the season. To top it off the Yankees travel to the Great American Ballpark, one of the best hitters parks in the majors.

 

First Base

Anthony Rizzo FD 5000 DK 5600
Opponent - COL (Senzatela) Park - @COL
FD - 14.85 DK - 11.32

The choice at the top of the first base position is actually a lot harder than it appears. Yes, Rizzo gets an elite matchup in Coors, but has been struggling mightily with just two hits in his last eight games. I am personally not too worried about the struggles as Coors is probably the best place in the world to turn things around and Rizzo has also been operating with a low .219 BABIP which is 90 points lower than his career mark. He is an elite hitter who is coming off his third straight 30+ home run season and if you want even more data to make you feel all tingly inside, consider that he is only striking out 12.8% of the time, a career low. You might also be able to get Rizzo at a lower ownership tonight not only due to the struggles but the fact Ryan Zimmerman comes at a nice discount and has been one of the hottest hitters in the league to start the season.

*Update - Rizzo was hit on the wrist by a pitch last night but remained in the game. With the game going late into extra innings, he could sit tonight. Stay tuned for another update.*

Ryan Zimmerman FD 4600 DK 4700
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 9.36 DK - 7.24

Even though Rizzo plays in Coors tonight and is one of the highest projected players overall(raw point), I feel Zimmerman will be the chalk. First of all, he comes at a sizeable discount on both sites and has been one of, if not the hottest player in the league through just over a month of play. He enters Monday night with a .435/.475/.907 slash line with 12 homes runs and 34 RBI and gets to hit behind Bryce Harper(he is really good at baseball). While Camden Yards is no Coors, it is also no slouch when it comes to hitters parks, especially with a  weak pitcher on the mound. Enter Kevin Gausman who has been lit up early in the season to the tune of a 7.55 ERA with over 30% hard contact against. While his xFIP(5.82) suggests a little bit of regression, I don't see it happening tonight vs. the #1 offense in the league. Better yet for Zimmerman, Gausman has reverse splits and has struggled much more against right-handed batters giving up a .429 wOBA and five of his six home runs against. Lock Zimmerman into your lineups in all formats.

Logan Morrison FD 3100 DK 3200
Opponent - KC (Karns) Park - @TB
FD - 8.91 DK - 6.96

If it's value you are after at the position, Logan Morrison is the play tonight. He is having a great start to the year with a .275/.377/.538 slash line and sits with an elite .393 wOBA in his second season with the Rays.  For the most part, he has been hitting out of the six hole but has seen hit in the cleanup spot in back to back games coming into Monday. This is great news as he is a terrific value in the low $3K range and gets a plus matchup vs. Nate Karns, who despite being a ground ball pitcher(59%), has struggled to keep the ball in the yard this season with a 24% HR/FB rate. Looking at Morrison's splits on the season he has been about the same in terms of average but has hit all seven of his home runs against right-handed pitching. If you are loading up on the top two pitchers tonight, LoMo makes an excellent low-owned first base option that provides salary relief to still get some Coors bats in your lineup.

Second Base

Ben Zobrist FD 3900 DK 4800
Opponent - COL (Senzatela) Park - @COL
FD - 12.01 DK - 9.29

Back to Coors field to kick off the second base position tonight. While he has struggled to start the 2017 season with a low .232 batting average, there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. Not only does he get to spend the next three days in the best hitting environment in the big leagues, he enters the series with the Rockies on a 10-game hit streak. So far the biggest difference from 2016 to 2017 is Zobrist's splits as he hit over .300 vs. southpaws last year and is stuck at .167 through 28 games this season. He faces right-hander Antonio Senzatela tonight who sits with a nice 4-1 record in his rookie season but has given up a home run in all three home games this season. His xFIP that sits close to two full runs higher than his ERA and the fact he has only striking out 4.74 batters per nine suggest he is going to hit the rookie wall very soon. Look for Zobrist to once again hit in the cleanup spot for the Cubs in a game with the highest projected total on the night.

 

Jed Lowrie FD 2300 DK 2700
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @OAK
FD - 8.71 DK - 6.82

If you are looking to pay down at the position it would wise to look in the direction of Jed Lowrie tonight. Hard to miss him if you peaked at the early projections at second base as he tops the PTS/$ value by a wide margin. A lot of that has to do with the low price on both sites and the fact he hits high up in the Athletics batting order. He isn't going to provide a ton of upside with minimal power but has been very consistent with a .298/.373/.423 slash line with 17 runs scored so far this season. He is an excellent salary relief play in all formats that allows you to stack pitchers and also get some high-end bats in your lineup.
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Shortstop

Corey Seager FD 3800 DK 4400
Opponent - PIT (Williams) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.27 DK - 7.99

I told myself last night when I saw the Coors game on the slate that I would go through at least one position without mentioning a bat from that game. Enter Corey Seager. He makes an excellent pivot off Story or Russell and will most likely be very low owned tonight. He also comes at a discount as he is fourth in salary on FanDuel and fifth on DraftKings. After posting some elite numbers in his first full season in 2016, Seager is on pace to match them in 2017 as he sits with an identical .372 wOBA and wRC+(132) that is just 5% below his 2016 total. On a per game basis, he is also right there with home runs, runs scored and RBI.

Elvis Andrus FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @SD
FD - 6.95 DK - 5.97

From a value standpoint, I absolutely love what Andrus brings to the table tonight. Coors Field and targeting Senzatela is going to be the chalk but the Rangers also get a top matchup despite the downgrade in park factor. We can't talk bad pitchers that are great to target against in DFS without talking about Jered Weaver. After 11 seasons with the Angels, he moved on to San Diego and by the way he is pitching it could be his last stop. He is striking out just 4.41 batters per nine, is giving up 33% hard contact against and sits with an ugly 28% HR/FB rate. Andrus is another batter that always seems to bounce around the lineup but over the last five games has hit near the top of the order in the three and four hole. Fire him up in all formats.

 

Third Base

Kris Bryant FD 5200 DK 5500
Opponent - COL (Senzatela) Park - @COL
FD - 14.86 DK - 11.47

After the short detour away from Coors, we return to see Kris Bryant top the overall raw point projections for hitters going into Monday night's action. He might be a bit tired after an 18 inning affair last night but the competitor in him should be fired up after being swept by the Yankees over the weekend. Good news, for the hitters at least, as the Cubs travel to Colorado where they open as -135 favorites in a game with a projected total of 11 as of now. Bryant has practically won everything in his first two seasons as a big leaguer, winning the Rookie of the Year in 2015, then MVP and World Series Trophy in 2016. He is off to another great start this season posting a .311/.411/.563 slash line with six home runs and six runs batted in. He is my top bat of the night and will be a staple in almost 100% of my lineups.

Yunel Escobar FD 2900 DK 3100
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @OAK
FD - 8.26 DK - 6.53

If you are not paying up at the position tonight, I like heading right down into value town with Yunel Escobar. If you have been hanging around DFSR long enough, you know that we preach batting order, especially when it comes to the value plays. While we aren't getting a high upside play with Escobar, he hits leadoff for the Angels with and has been very consistent lately. With two home runs on Sunday, he has now recorded at least one hit in eight of his last 10 games with three home runs, three doubles, and five runs scored. as long as he remains in the leadoff spot, he is one of the top salary relief options of the night.

 

Outfield

Charlie Blackmon FD 4300 DK 5200
Opponent - CHC (Arrieta) Park - @COL
FD - 11.59 DK - 9.69

You thought I was going to spend all my Coors picks on the Cubs, didn't you? It was close and it really came down to the fact that Jake Arrieta is top tier pitcher. That doesn't keep me away completely, though, as even the best of pitchers have had their troubles in the high elevation of Colorado. Of all the Rockies, I side with Blackmon who hits leadoff(see a pattern?) and has been on a tear lately. He is coming off back to back three-hit games and has at least one hit in 24 of his last 27 games. He enters Monday night's game with a .300/.343/.592 slash line and elite .392 wOBA. I wouldn't say he is a must-play vs. Arrieta but has upside and Rockies side should be lower owned than the Cubs even after their 18 inning game last night.

Aaron Judge FD 4500 DK 4600
Opponent - CIN (Davis) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.93 DK - 7.67
Brett Gardner FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - CIN (Davis) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.64 DK - 8.58

The Yankees are one of my favorite offenses to target outside of Coors Field tonight. They travel to Great American Ballpark(hitter positive) and get to face a young developing pitcher in Rookie Davis. I discussed his inability to get swinging strikes with the fastball and how his slider(secondary pitch) has been getting crushed. Enter Aaron Judge who I am still not convinced is actually human. Dude is listed at 6'7" 275 pounds and has provided a huge power presence in the Yankees lineup. Through 28 games, Judge has an elite .320/.416/.773 slash line with 13 home runs, 28 RBI and 28 runs scored. Until pitchers can figure out how to get him out, he is a high upside play that is also quickly moving his way up the lineup. Brett Gardner makes sense if you are playing Judge as he hits leadoff and has been on a tear lately as well. He was given the day off on Sunday but eventually made it in as a pinch hitter where he recorded two hits. That extends his hitting streak to nine games where he has recorded multiple hits five times and also added some upside with five home runs.
Matt Joyce FD 2800 DK 2400
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @OAK
FD - 7.76 DK - 5.88

The punt of the night in the outfield is going to be Matt Joyce, provided he is back up at the top of the Athletics order tonight. As you would expect with a player priced in the mid $2K range, he isn't going to provide much upside but gets enough opportunity at the top of the lineup to give us a serviceable floor all while providing salary relief to allow us to get in some top plays at other positions.

 

 

 

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