Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/3/17
Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here.
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HOUSTON ASTROS
Ok, so Nick Martinez has thrown a couple of good starts in a row. The question is: do you buy it? We don't, at least not yet. There's not much in a two-game sample size that would hold any predictive value whatsoever, but it is worth noting that he's cranked up the velocity by more than 2 mph over last season average and is now sitting at just below 94 mph with his fastball. So, just put a pin in that and keep in the back of your mind. But in the meantime, go ahead and feel free to load up against him, because it's gonna take more than 13 IP of being decent to make us wipe away 300-plus innings of being crappy (technical term). Martinez holds a career xFIP of 5.19 since breaking into the bigs in 2014. In that span exactly zero (0) qualifying pitchers have been worse. So, yeah. Not sweating a nice outing against the Royals right now. As for the Astros, they've been one of baseball's best offenses vs. RHP this season, ranking third in wRC+, and eighth since the beginning of 2016. The personnel additions they made in the offseason have helped, but probably not as much as Yuli Gurriel starting to figure out MLB pitching. He struggled last season at all levels after coming over from Cuba, but he's raking right now against RHP (.431 wOBA, .200 ISO, 10% K rate). We're still dealing with unreliable sample sizes, but he's clearly a viable play right now. Per usual, Jose Altuve is your top option with a .394 wOBA vs. RHP since last season. Carlos Correa also has a .354 wOBA and .183 ISO in the split, and Evan Gattis (.240 ISO) deserves some attention if he's in there.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
We're still not in love with this lineup in the absence of Starling Marte, but the combination of soft Cincinnati pitching and the Great American Ballpark is pretty inviting. The downside -- aside from Pittsburgh's 89 wRC+ vs. RHP this season -- is that after they went off for 12 runs last night, ownership will probably be inflated tonight, so there's reason to fade if you're so inclined. On the other hand, there's Rookie Davis, who might have a fine career ahead of him, but at this point appears half-baked, at best. We've only got 9.2 IP of big-league innings to work with, but they're 9.2 really ugly innings, and his minor league numbers (4.42 FIP in Double-A last year) aren't exactly intimidating. Also worth considering: the Cincinnati bullpen has been taxed lately, logging 13 innings of work in the last three days. Again, Pittsburgh's numbers vs. RHP aren't inspiring (Josh Bell is the only current regular with a wOBA over .350 since the start of last year), but they're relatively cheap and everything else about this spot is enticing.
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COLORADO ROCKIES
It's pretty rare that we'll recommend stacking the Rockies outside of Coors Field, and perhaps even more rare that we recommend stacking anybody in Petco, but such is the influence of Jered Weaver. We especially like this play on FanDuel, where Carlos Gonzalez is just $2.8K, but you'll probably get the Rockies at lower ownership rates on DraftKings, where they'll cost you a bit more, so they're in play on either site. Petco isn't a great park, but it's not quite the offense killer it used to be, and it's actually pretty decent when it comes to left-handed HR factors. Meanwhile, Jered Weaver's still serving up meatballs. He gave up 1.87 HRs/9 last season -- second only to James Shields -- and he's given up a league-high 10 in 28.2 IP this season. He's due for some regression (or a trip to the independent leagues), but the fact that he doesn't miss bats and has allowed a .362 wOBA since the beginning of last season (.355 vs. L; .368 vs. R) means we're happy to stack against him in pretty much any venue.
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