Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/7/16

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Pitcher

Max Scherzer FD 10300 DK 13000
Opponent - PHI (Velasquez) Park - @PHI
FD - 43.29 DK - 28.5

There were some rumors of Madison Bumgarner moving up a day and starting today. It looks like Matt Cain will start instead, who is the polar opposite of Bumgarner. That leaves us with only 1 expensive option on the entire day. Max Scherzer. Scherzer and the Nats will face-off with the Phillies, who are one of the more underwhelming offenses in the league. Odubel Herrera and Michael Saunders are both great against righties and are the only 2 guys that can give Scherzer some issues. It's a reach though, as not many guys can get to Scherzer. Righties are a lost cause. In 2016, Scherzer allowed a .206 wOBA, which is lowest among qualified starters. Lefties hit Scherzer a little bit better, but nothing to write home about. Scherzer is far and away the top option at pitcher and is a lock for cash games. He is a top 3-5 pitcher in baseball and on a slate with such uncertainty, there's something to be said for a safe, high-upside pitching target. Outside of Scherzer, you will be relying upon tournament options and "what if's" to produce. In cash games, I wouldn't get too cute on this slate. Scherzer is going to produce and I will be taking the sure thing.

Zack Wheeler FD 6500 DK 8000
Opponent - MIA (Chen) Park - @NYM
FD - 34.62 DK - 22.73

If you aren't a big MLB fan, the name Zach Wheeler may not mean too much for you. If you do pay attention to the Mets and prospects, you definitely know who Wheeler is. Wheeler pitched 100+ innings in 2013, before twirling 180 in 2014. He then got hurt about 5 different times and only managed to pitch 1 single A inning over the last 2 seasons. When Wheeler was pitching well, he dominated righties and held down lefties pretty well. In 2014, Wheeler sported a ..291 combined wOBA to go along with a 29% hard contact rate and a 9.51 K/9. The Mets will definitely be careful with Wheeler, as they can't have him getting hurt again. We saw Harvey dominate and only get 70 pitches yesterday, so Terry Collins and Crew are willing to go to the bullpen. While that could hinder his upside a bit, Wheeler is pretty safe for his price against the Marlins. Christian Yelich and Dee Gordon are the 2 bats I'm scared of most. Luckily, Zack Wheeler is pretty good at holding runners.

Jesse Chavez FD 4000 DK 7100
Opponent - SEA (Gallardo) Park - @LAA
FD - 30.47 DK - 20.16

Chavez beat out Alex Meyer for the 5 spot after a fantastic spring, striking out 14 batters over 13.1 innings. While that sample size is far too small to judge anything off of, it's nice to see he is pitching for strikeouts. Chavez was in the bullpen for a lot of last season, so I would be surprised to see him pushed anywhere near 100 pitches. With that being said, there is nobody to play after Max Scherzer. Wheeler is a solid option, but not nearly as safe as Scherzer is. Chavez is only a play on FD where he is $3k cheaper and minimum-priced. Chavez really isn't that good. He's just $4k and facing a below average Mariners team. Outside of Robinson Cano, the Mariners can be taken advantage of from the right side. They had 3 guys with 23%+ K rates in 2016 and do offer the upside for a few extra K's. Angel Stadium is a spacious park that is far better for pitchers. Chavez definitely isn't a cash game option but is a great GPP option. He allows you to pay up at basically every position while still having decent upside at pitcher. FanDuel flier only.

Catcher

Austin Barnes FD 2500 DK 4100
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 8.87 DK - 7.09
Yasmani Grandal FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 2.52 DK - 1.81

If you're new to MLB DFS, you will learn quickly about Coors Field. With the increased elevation, the ball travels faster, farther, and doesn't move as much. It's a hitter's paradise and will have the highest over/under of the night every time there's a game. Today, we have an 11.5, which is high for Coors Field. Austin Barnes has been getting the starts at catcher against lefties and hits them well. Kyle Freeland had his contract purchased from AA and will see his first career start. This kid will be lucky to make it out of the 3rd inning. He is a guy who struck out only 6 batters per 9 innings in the minors, which translates to about 4 here. In Coors Field, you better do a whole hell of a lot better than that. These Dodgers are going to make a lot of strong contact here and we know what that means in Coors. As long as Barnes is in the lineup, he is a viable punt at catcher. He is too expensive for my taste on DraftKings. They do a good job of adjusting prices for Coors. Yasmani Grandal could also get the start and makes for a great play if he does.

Jonathan Lucroy FD 3000 DK 4500
Opponent - OAK (Alcantara) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.29 DK - 6.96

When a team has the same implied run total as the Rockies in Coors Field, you have to take notice. The Rangers are currently a -145 ML favorite against the A's with a 9.5 over/under, which puts the Rangers over 5 projected runs. Raul Alcantara is a prospect, but has struggled so far. In 2016, he was obliterated for a .400 wOBA in just under 20 innings. Vegas doesn't expect Alcantara to completely turn it around in 6 months, which I tend to agree with. The Rangers are a lethal lineup and hit in a fantastic hitting environment. Jonathan Lucroy, a righty, is a huge reverse splits guy. In 2016, eh held a . 371 wOBA against righties. He hit 24 homers in his comeback season and should follow that up with another solid season. Lucroy is a big threat at catcher and does deserve some attention, even with the game in Coors. The Ranger shave a great chance to have a huge game, with Lucroy being a big part of it.

First Base

Carlos Santana FD 3800 DK 4700
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.44 DK - 8.37

The Indians aren't a top 4 offense on this slate, so we won't talk too much about them in this article. however, they are one of my absolute favorite tournament stacks of the night. Shelby Miller is absolutely horrible and the Indians have a ridiculous amount of upside, especially in Chase Field. I didn't mean to gloss over Miller. He is one of the worst pitchers in baseball against lefties, allowing an astronomical .400 wOBA over 55 innings. That's just insane. It wasn't a fluke either, as lefties connected for a 40% hard contact rate and a 5.68 xFIP. Carlos Santana is a switch-hitter, but better from the left side. He hit righties to a .353 wOBA in 2016 and should improve on that with the added protection on Encarnacion. The Indians are a great place to look tonight and it starts with Santana from the left side. He is a fantastic option in all formats.

Chris Davis FD 3200 DK 4900
Opponent - NYY (Severino) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.61 DK - 7.57

Chris Davis is always a tournament play only, so make sure to get that clear. There are very few circumstances where I will play Chris Davis in cash games. he's extremely volatile and can strikeout against the worst of them. He can slap 3 homers over the fence and not blink an eye. While that's never an expectation, you know it's capable with a guy like this. He has a nice match-up with Luis Severino tonight, with the Orioles for over 4 1/12 runs. While Severino is a legitimately good prospect, he isn;t polished just yet. He gives up the long ball at a somewhat alarming rate and in Camden Yards, it could get ugly. Davis is a fastball hitter and Severino is one to rely heavily on his 4-seamer. Don't be surprised to see Davis turn on one and send it to the concourse in right. Also don't be surprised if he strikes out on 12 balls out of the zone. This is Chris Davis we're talking about.

Gregory Bird FD 2400 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 9.01 DK - 6.54

On DraftKings, I'd rather go elsewhere. On FanDuel, Greg Bird is somehow $2400. As a guy hitting 3rd in a pretty nice lineup, they need to fix this ASAP. However, I will keep targeting him until it's fixed. Ubaldo Jimenez is nothing to be scared of and you know that when the Yankees are projected to win with a 9 over/under. Jimenez was atrocious against lefties in 2016, allowing a .378 wOBA that was backed up by a 4.62 xFIP and a 34% hard contact rate. Greg Bird last hit in 2015, when he hit righties for a solid .387 wOBA. He has a ton of power and Camden Yards certainly plays well into that. With so many attractive spots to pay up on this slate, it's gonna be hard to stay away from Bird on FanDuel. He will allow you to pay up at an extra spot and has ujst asmuch upside as anyone $1k more expensive. You're probably doing it wrong if you don't get some kind of exposure to Bird (if you have multiple lineups).

Second Base

Logan Forsythe FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 11.38 DK - 8.69

Kyle Freeland is mostly an unknown, coming from AA to the majors somewhat unexpectedly. He hasn't been great in the minors, sporting an xFIP around 4.00 and a strikeout far below average. The Rockies have decided to throw him into his 1st game against the Dodgers at Coors Field. Freeland will be a lucky man to finish with positive fantasy points tonight. Forsythe should be a big part of that. he was brought into strengthen the lineup against lefties and should be batting 2nd or 3rd. He has hit lefties well for a few seasons now and has added the power as well. In Coors Field, Forsythe should have a lot of fun. He hits the ball hard and could see some extreme success against Freeland tonight. There are some great options at second, but none more so than Forsythe. Forsythe is the top at 2nd in both cash games and tournaments.

Rougned Odor FD 3300 DK 4800
Opponent - OAK (Alcantara) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.14 DK - 7.82

Rougned has a hit in each of his last 2, after going absolutely bonkers in game 1 with 2 homers. I personally think Rougned Odor is absolutely the real thing and expect him to be priced right with the elite guys very soon. He gets an insanely nice match-up here with Raul Alcantara, who we have already touched on. He has been absolutely atrocious and moves from the spacious O.Co to the bam box that is Arlington. In 2016, Odor sported a .340 wOBA against righties. DraftKings has taken notice and he's a bit too expensive there. I would rather go with Forsythe for $100 more. In FD however, he is priced with the likes of Lemahieu and Kinsler. He is a great cash game play as I truly just don't see Alcantara shutting these guys down at all. The A's also have a pretty subpar bullpen this season, so won't be able to rely on that. Odor is a very strong tournament option with some cash game appeal. Logan Forsythe is still the top cash game play at 2nd.

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Shortstop

Corey Seager FD 4200 DK 5500
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 10.74 DK - 8.01

Kyle Freeland is a lefty, so Seager will see that typically unfavorable lefty-lefty match-up. While Seager doesn't hit lefties anywhere near as well as he does righties, he is still a good hitter against them. Sporting a .321 wOBA in 2016 at just 22 years old, he should continue improving. In Coors Field, you can adjust that around .400. Seager still doesn't strikeout against lefties and Freeland isn't the guy to force anything in that respect. As long as I can rely on Corey Seager making contact on a consistent basis with a poor pitcher, I'll take it.Remember, Freeland will only last a few innings at most. Seager will most likely see a right-hander out of the bullpen. There will be plenty of runners on base and Seager will have no problem driving them in. Th Dodgers currently have an implied team total of 6.23, which is far and away the highest on the day. You will rarely see a number higher than that. Seager is an elite option in all formats and a must in all Dodgers stacks.

Addison Russell FD 2700 DK 4100
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.02 DK - 6.71

Addison Russell has been hitting pretty high in the lineup, which will eventually turn into a lot of RBI opportunities. The Cubs are finally facing a bad pitcher for the first time this year and it will be fun to watch the Cubbies offense go at it. Jimmy Nelson was bad against both lefties and righties in 2016, sporting a combined .345 wOBA. He is a guy who had a lot of hype, but most have given up at this point. He has trouble locating his fastball, which forces him to groove e make-up pitches. The Cubs are a team with a unanimous green light and they don't discriminate when it comes to the count they hit homers on. Russell hits right-handers well, as evidenced by his .323 career wOBA. He also had 12 of his 21 homers against righties last year, so the power is there. The Cubs offense is one with a lot of potential tonight and Russell is safe with a lot of upside.

Francisco Lindor FD 3700 DK 4500
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.2 DK - 8.18

Lindor devastated the Rangers with a game-winning grand slam a few nights ago and will now move on to Arizona. He is one of the better young players in this league and it looks like his bat is coming around and catching his glove, which is arguably a league-best. We talked about Shelby Miller a bit ago and just how horrible he is. Sporting a .400 wOBA against lefties is just crazy and something you will not see often. You want to target Miller as much as you can with lefties and Lindor is one with plenty of power. He also steals bags, which only heightens his upside against a right-hander who isn't good at holding runners. Chase Field is also one of the best hitter parks in baseball and I look for the Indians lefties to take advantage. The Diamondbacks bullpen is also pretty worn down from the Giants, so things could get ugly, I love the Indians stack on a slate where all the ownership will be elsewhere.

Third Base

Miguel Sano FD 3100 DK 4200
Opponent - CHW (Holland) Park - @CHW
FD - 9.34 DK - 6.72

Miguel Sano is one of the more exciting players to roster in DFS, as you know as soon as the ball hits the bat whether it's a home run or out. Sano doesn't hit "maybe" homers. When he connects, the ball will leave any ballpark. He is going to be one of the best power hitters for a while and the contact numbers will only go up, even if it's slowly. The Twins face off against the left-handed Derek Holland in U.S. Cellular Field, which is a great park for righty power. In 2016, Holland gave up 14 homers and a .346 wOBA in under 90 innings. That equates to one of the absolute worst HR rates from a starter. Sano on the other hand, smashed lefties in 2016 to a .345 wOBA and 6 homers in just 40 games. This park is a ginormous upgrade from Target Field, where you have to actually hit it a mile to left field just to reach the warning track. All in all, you have a big power righty against a weak southpaw that gives up a low of home runs. Sano should go under-owned tonight and I love him in every format. He's obviously more of a GPP player in general, but I like him everywhere tonight.

Nolan Arenado FD 4700 DK 5400
Opponent - LAD (Ryu) Park - @COL
FD - 11.68 DK - 8.53

We have been focusing on this Dodgers offense in Coors and rightfully so. There facing a bad minor league pitcher that has been called up to face one of the most talented lineups in the game. Still, both of these teams are in Coors Field. We know how good Nolan Arenado is in Coors Field, especially against lefties. In 2016, Arenado sported a .429 wOBA at home against lefties. Yes, you read that correctly. He backed that up with a stupid 46% hard contact rate and a 48% pull rate. He's looking to hit it hard and far, every time. Hyun-Jin Ryu is arguably the best 5 in baseball, but will still struggle in Coors Field. His last real innings came in 2014, when he was truly dominant. I'm just not willing to trust he's going to be the same guy he was 3 years ago when coming off of multiple injuries. I'm willing to take one of the best 3rd basemen in the game at home in the best environment in baseball. Arenado is an absolute stud and can destroy his price tag at any time. There will be plenty of times you wish you rostered this guy.

Outfield

Kyle Schwarber FD 3400 DK 5000
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.98 DK - 8.75

I ended up riding Schwarber against Lance Lynn and it paid off in a nice way. He hit a 3-run homer and later reached on an intentional walk. Schwarber has the leadoff spot by the horns and I don;t think he lets go anytime soon. He is the 3rd best hitter in this lineup and think he puts himself in that elite tier this season. If I had to guess, I would say he ends up with a wOBA around .380 against righties. He has the power to hit 2 in any game and also the contact to drive in runs effectively. While we don't know how real it is yet, there have been talks of Schwarber taking off for 2nd this year. We will see how that turns out. Anyway, Schwarber will lead this team against Jimmy Nelson, who we have touched on. Nelson is equally bad against both lefties and righties, but gives up more power to the left side. Miller Park is also pretty nice for power and Schwarber has a good shot of sending one deep tonight. The Cubs are an interesting stack tonight as well, as they should be really low-owned with Coors Field and the Indians.

Shin-Soo Choo FD 2700 DK 4700
Opponent - OAK (Alcantara) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.58 DK - 7.98
Carlos Gomez FD 2900 DK 4400
Opponent - OAK (Alcantara) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.31 DK - 8.35
Nomar Mazara FD 3100 DK 4100
Opponent - OAK (Alcantara) Park - @TEX
FD - 8.76 DK - 6.58

The Rangers are the 2nd best offense of the day, facing off with Raul Alcantara and the Athletics bullpen. The Rangers have been swinging the bat well at home, like always. Carlos Gomez has been destroying the ball every at-bat and is way too cheap on Fanduel, as is Choo. Both of these guys can hit righties well and have in the past. Gomez however, was absolutely atrocious last season. He did start to turn it around towards the end of the season and ended up getting a 1-year contract because of it. I think he has a monster year with the contract looming, as Gomez did the same exact thing in Milwaukee. He has already gotten to a nice start and I do expect it to continue. Choo and Mazara are both lefties who hit righties exceptionally well. I think Mazar is one of the most under-rated bats in baseball and has a big coming-out year. This match-up is obviously phenomenal and I will have a lot of exposure. The big problem today is the lack of outfield spots. I wish we could play like 8 of them. Unfortunately, we will have to take a stand in a few spots. Mazara will be one of those stands for me and is my choice to go yard (outside of Coors).

Yasiel Puig FD 3500 DK 5100
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 10.71 DK - 8.13

Over the last 2 games, Yasiel Puig has 3 homers, 5 RBI's, 4 runs, and a stolen base. He is playing phenomenal right now and is a guy who purely plays on emotion. When playing well, he is more active and gets involved more. Puig hits both lefties and righties well, which helps in a match-up where half of the at-bats will come against a lefty and the rest against an assortment of bullpen righties. The Dodgers have a 6.5 run total and are by far the top offense of the slate. On FanDuel, you can fit them easily with Scherzer. On DraftKings, it's whole other story. They have priced these Coors guys up like crazy and will force you to make some tough decisions. Just remember, Coors Field is absolutely the real deal. No matter ho many times it screws you, it's the right play. The elevation has not changed and will not change. We hope.

Consider - Michael Brantley, Tyler Naquin, Franklin Gutierrez, Yoenis Cespedes

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