Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/3/16

Ohhhhh baby! Baseball season is back in full force, and so is DFS baseball! That's right - random 0/5s from the game's best players, home runs from obscure back-ups to ruin your big tournament hopes, and... oh, I need to stop it. Baseball season! While daily fantasy baseball is arguably the highest variance daily fantasy sport, it's also one of the most lucrative (since people generally have no idea what they're doing). The first days of the season are often the hardest since there are almost exclusively great pitchers going today, so let's get started!

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Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw FD 12600 DK 12800
Opponent - SD (Chacin) Park - @LAD
FD - 51.17 DK - 33.9

Ever heard of him? He’s so far and away the best starting pitcher play on this slate that I’m almost embarrassed to try and write up anyone else after him. Kershaw has the best money line (-360), lowest implied runs against (1.87) and again, he’s Clayton F@#$ing Kershaw. Dude’s coming off an injury-shortened season that still saw him putting up a 1.80 xFIP with a basically unheard of 15:1 K:BB ratio. I don’t need to go into too may more superlatives here. He’s the clear play even at these prices and you are really only fading in GPPs on the off chance the Padres somehow knock him around.

Stephen Strasburg FD 9700 DK 9900
Opponent - MIA (Volquez) Park - @WSH
FD - 39.38 DK - 25.83

I get it, no one ever wants to play this guy. It doesn’t matter the situation or matchup, Stras has earned the ire of many a DFS player over the years. But some people’s predispositions for a player shouldn’t sway you from thinking about a guy like Strasburg. His numbers last season were beyond elite with a 11.15 K/9 rate and 2.92 xFIP. His 3.60 ERA is what most people would see but this guy was among the very best pitchers in the game last season. If you are fading Kershaw and looking for some savings, he’s definitely the way to go with major strikeout upside against a weaker Miami squad.

Julio Teheran FD 7900 DK 8300
Opponent - NYM (Syndergaard) Park - @NYM
FD - 34.3 DK - 22.56

More of a middle tier price play if you are looking to spend up on some bats. Teheran’s 3.21 ERA was a little better than his 3.69 xFIP but he still posted solid peripherals with a 4:1 K: BB ratio pointing to more than solid control.

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - SD (Chacin) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.19 DK - 6.61

Catcher is usually a brutal position and it’s no different on this full slate of Monday games. But Grandal was sneaky good last season posting an .816 OPS to go with 27 home runs in only about 450 plate appearances. Those are impressive numbers for a guy playing about half his games in a pitcher’s park. It’s still not a great spot but assuming he’s hitting around fifth in the lineup and facing a below average arm like Jhoulys Chacin and we are getting some solid upside.

Victor Martinez FD 3000 DK 3500
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @CHW
FD - 9.17 DK - 6.77

He’s coming off a solid season in which he put up a .289/.315/.476 line with 27 home runs and we all quietly thank the sites for still qualifying him as a catcher. V-Mart has been significantly better against lefties for his career with a 129 wRC+ and .859 OPS. It isn’t like Quintana is a pushover but we have him in a good platoon in one of the best hitters’ parks in baseball. A much better deal on FanDuel where he’s still C eligible.

First Base

Chris Davis FD 3200 DK 4300
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.81 DK - 7.71

After a 47 home run 2015 campaign, Crush was “disappointing” last season only knocking 38 out of the park. The only real change in his underlying numbers was a regression to his career Hr/FB ratio which kept more balls in the park. Otherwise he is who is he is. He strikes out a ton (33% of the time last year), takes walks and is basically your prototypical three true outcomes kind of guy. I like him today coming on the cheaper side on FD (a little more on DK) in a good hitter’s park against a decent but not great arm in Marco Estrada.

Eric Thames FD 2200 DK 3800
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.38 DK - 7.89

This one is a little more speculative and makes some assumptions on Thames’ opportunity. Basically, for the purposes of this article, we are counting on him batting fifth in the lineup and recreating just some of the success he’s had in Korea the last couple of seasons. That’s right, Thames has been out of the Majors for a few years now but now projects as the Brewers everyday first basemen. He’s a punt play plain and simple in a solid hitter’s park. Jon Gray isn’t an ideal matchup for a guy returning to face major league pitching but I do like the upside on the cheap.

Tommy Joseph FD 2100 DK 3700
Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.09 DK - 6.67

Another cheap, rather speculative play at a thinner position on this Monday of games. He showed real solid power in just half season last year launching 21 home runs in 347 PAs for an .813 OPS that was boosted by the slugging part of that equation. He strikes out a lot and doesn’t take many walks but that’s fine against a pitcher like Feldman who has no real swing and miss stuff.

Second Base

Devon Travis FD 2400 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 8.62 DK - 6.64

To be clear, he’s only in play if he’s batting leadoff for the Jays on Monday. Most indications make it appear that will be the case, but we will need to see the lineups just to be sure. But if he’s hitting in front of Tulo, Donaldson and Bautista today then basically lock up this price on FanDuel for cash. It’s a little close on DraftKings against a solid pitcher like Gausman who does have some strikeout stuff. But it will be the slot in the batting order where Travis sees his most value coming on the cheap.

Brian Dozier FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.23 DK - 7.78

Dozier had a breakout 2016 season where he was often the toast of many a DFS winning night. That was thank, in large part, to huge jump in his power numbers thanks to about a 50% increase in his Hr/FB ratio. I wouldn’t expect exactly a repeat performance but the old Dozier was pretty damn good as well. He’s a great DFS play considering the power/ speed combo (he swiped 18 bags last season) and has been better against lefties for his career. Not a great matchup against Duffy, but definitely in play to start the year.

Dustin Pedroia FD 2900 DK 4100
Opponent - PIT (Cole) Park - @BOS
FD - 8.55 DK - 6.58
So Pedroia was a hair better against right handed pitching last year, but has been more of a natural platoon guy for the rest of his career. Given the relatively significant sample size from last season, though, I'm prepared to call him something like platoon neutral. Cole is obviously a pretty tough match-up, but this early in the season that isn't going to be anything new. What our system likes here is mostly the park - Pedroia .035 wOBA points better at home over the course of his career. Given the relative lack of solid options at 2B today, he looks like a fairly cheap and solid cash game inclusion on FanDuel in particular.

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Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki FD 2900 DK 4400
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 8.48 DK - 6.23
A new year, a new chance for me to write, "You know, I don't take a Tulo, lightly." And, I'm spent on Tulo jokes already. It's going to be a long season. Like Pedroia above, Tulowitzki is a bit better against left handed pitching, and Gausman isn't exactly a pushover. On opening day, though, he's pretty much the next best thing. Gausman's 3.77 xFIP last season is basically league average, and oddly, he's been considerably worse against right handed hitting over the course of his young career. It's not all smoke and mirrors, either - his K rate is 2% higher vs. southpaws. As for Tulowitzki, he's basically just a cheap shortstop with plenty of upside that bats in the middle of an excellent lineup in a great park. Not a lot to hate here at all.

Freddy Galvis FD 2600 DK 3500
Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @CIN
FD - 6.75 DK - 5.4
Jesus, I'm dipping into the Freddy Galvis jar this early? It's going to be a long season at shortstop this year. Galvis is a much better fantasy hitter than a real life hitter, flirting with 20/20 last season while batting at a spot in the order that can yield a reasonable run total. Sadly for him, the guys who bat around him are about as bad as he is. Still, there's quite a bit to like here. Cincinnati is a great place to hit, and Scott Feldman is easily one of the worst pitchers going today. He managed just a 4.17 xFIP out of the bullpen last season, and his general lack of stuff should leave him even more exposed over the course of an entire game. I don't know if I'd go there on FanDuel, but saving the 900 from Tulo to Galvis on DraftKings might be a deal maker.

Third Base

Miguel Sano FD 2700 DK 4000
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @MIN
FD - 9.58 DK - 6.89
Sano has been such a high ceiling low floor guy over the course of his brief career that it's a little difficult to draw too many conclusions from his splits thus far, but I think we can safely say that he is at the very least a platoon neutral hitter. We catch him in this game against the equally erratic Danny Duffy, who's fresh off his best full season as a starter. But, spoiler alert, that basically just turned Duffy into a league average pitcher. I'm sort of shellshocked by this FanDuel price - getting a guy with 80 power in a platoon positive match-up that bats in the heart of his order isn't something we'll see often this season. I'm a buyer in all formats.

Mike Moustakas FD 2500 DK 3200
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @MIN
FD - 9.18 DK - 6.76
Welp, Moustakas never turned into the left handed David Wright as promised, but these prices suggest to me that people have sort of forgotten what he's capable of. Moustakas was a 20+ homer guy in his last healthy season, and he was batting 2nd against RHP before getting shut down last year. The Royals aren't exactly the 20s Yankees, but they have a good enough offense that that spot in the lineup should produce a decent amount of counting stats. You don't love the OBP here, but these prices are basically begging us to take a stab. The pitcher he's facing here also ignites considerable excitement. Santana ran the hottest of any pitcher listed in this write-up this season, sneaking in an ERA nearly a full run worse than his xFIP. His lack of true K stuff helps us duck around Moustakas' biggest weakness as well, making me a buyer in all formats.

Also considered: Josh Donaldson, if you decide you can pay up. Basically the same case as Tulo - he's a little cheap for what he can provide, and it's a good park and pitcher relative to the field today.

Outfield

Bryce Harper FD 4500 DK 5100
Opponent - MIA (Volquez) Park - @WSH
FD - 11.91 DK - 8.95
Expect piles and piles of Bryce Harper across the industry today, as one of baseball's most exciting players faces up against a pitcher who posted a 5.37 ERA last season on opening day somehow. The favorable nature of this match-up is even more pronounced on a day that features so few bad pitchers, and throwing in a nice platoon situation here is just icing on the cake. I get that Harper didn't live up to his 2015 campaign last season, but I'm very willing to chalk that up to the nagging injury issues he had. If you think this guy peaked at age 22, well, I think you've got another thing coming.

Andrew Benintendi FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - PIT (Cole) Park - @BOS
FD - 10 DK - 7.86
All the stuff I said about the other Red Sox guys above, but it goes double for the Red Sox's (and perhaps baseball's?) best prospect. Benintendi is projected to bat 2nd this year, and profiles as a reasonable on base guy in a lineup full of guys who can barrel up a baseball against a league average pitcher like Gausman. This is just good old fashioned value, and a terrific part of a stack if you decide to stock up on Red Sox during their home opener.

Curtis Granderson FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @NYM
FD - 8.67 DK - 6.45
Some say the Grandy man has lost a step or two. And, well, that's pretty accurate. Still, Granderson put up 30 homers (if just 4 steals) last season, and piled up 23 of those in his far better match-ups with right handed pitching. Citi was a little unkind to Granderson last season (and it doesn't play particularly well with his left handed power stroke), but this is actually a better match-up than it looks like on paper. Teheran is another run-hot regression candidate, whose 4.13 xFIP paints a more accurate picture of his current skill set than his 3.21 ERA. He tends to stay around the plate, which creates a perfect opportunity for Granderson to make some hard contact.

Adam Eaton FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - MIA (Volquez) Park - @WSH
FD - 9.58 DK - 7.66
Eaton's not the most exciting fantasy commodity out there, but he's a classic example where the whole is a lot more than the sum of the parts appears to do. He is slated to bat lead off, which should lead to a good number of at-bats. He has mid-teens home run power, and mid-teens steals capabilities. He's up against Edinson Volquez, arguably (inarguably?) the worst pitcher going today. And to top it all off we get a positive platoon situation. I'm in for the full helping of Eaton today, even if my puns are generally terrible.

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